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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... North-northwesterly mid-level flow will continue across the Great Plains today, as a shortwave trough moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence becomes maximized along and ahead of the front, scattered convective initiation will be likely during the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form and move southeastward across eastern South Dakota and central to southern Minnesota. Most late afternoon forecast soundings across that area by late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, with steep lapse rates between the surface and 850 mb. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. The stronger multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... North-northwesterly mid-level flow will continue across the Great Plains today, as a shortwave trough moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence becomes maximized along and ahead of the front, scattered convective initiation will be likely during the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form and move southeastward across eastern South Dakota and central to southern Minnesota. Most late afternoon forecast soundings across that area by late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, with steep lapse rates between the surface and 850 mb. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. The stronger multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/02/2025 Read more

338
ABPZ20 KNHC 020505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin by the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
newly-formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located about 150 miles
south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Level 1 watering restrictions were implemented in the town of Kremmling, Colorado, after being approved on Aug. 20. Under the restrictions, Town Parks will be watered every third day (at most). Even-numbered and odd-numbered addresses will alternate which days they are allowed to use municipal water or outside uses. Sky-Hi News (Colorado), Sept. 2, 2025.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 02:47:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 03:27:00 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 02:51:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 03:21:52 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 02:51:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 02:51:27 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 515 WTPZ41 KNHC 020249 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has changed little since the previous advisory package. The cyclone appears to be in the process of establishing a more well-defined inner-core structure, with glimpses of an eye evident at times in visible satellite images. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt and 4.0/65 kt, respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 45 and 57 kt during the past several hours. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 kt. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 4 and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge. It should be noted that there remains considerable along-track spread among the global models — nearly 500 n mi by 120 hours — with the CMC the farthest east, the UKMET the farthest west, and the GFS/ECMWF solutions falling in between. The official track forecast remains closely aligned with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is slightly north of the previous advisory. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly light vertical wind shear through day 5. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a limiting factor for significant intensification, however, remaining between 50 and 60 percent and trending gradually lower through day 5. Additionally, the slow-moving nature of Kiko and proximity to cooler waters to the north of the system may also inhibit significant intensification. The latest intensity guidance has trended lower, and the official forecast reflects this change and has been nudged down accordingly. The official intensity forecast remains higher than most of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned with a blend of the HCCA/FSSE intensity consensus aids and the regional hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 13.8N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 563 FOPZ11 KNHC 020249 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 22(22) 38(60) 8(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 70(76) 11(87) 1(88) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 15(55) 1(56) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) 1(35) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 34(67) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 148 WTPZ21 KNHC 020248 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.3W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 20SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.3W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.8N 128.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 147 WTPZ31 KNHC 020248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 ...KIKO MAINTAINS STRENGTH AND CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 127.3W ABOUT 1880 MI...3025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 127.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO MAINTAINS STRENGTH AND CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Sep 01 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -127.3 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 02:47:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 02:47:57 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 01 2025 942 WTPZ42 KNHC 020245 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 900 PM CST Mon Sep 01 2025 Deep convection associated with a low pressure system to the south of southwestern Mexico has persisted and continues to become better organized over the past several hours. There is a fairly well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern over the area, with cloud tops to -70 deg C or colder near the estimated center. Based on the increased organization of the cloud pattern, the system is being designated as a tropical depression at this time. Dvorak satellite classifications are 1.5/1.5 and 2.0/2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, which supports a current intensity estimate of about 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/12 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone should cause the system to move on a west-northwestward to northwestward track for the next couple of days. Steering currents are expected to gradually weaken through the forecast period, resulting in a decrease in the forward speed of the cyclone. In 3 to 5 days, the slow-moving system is expected to turn northward and then northeastward into a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. The tropical cyclone is currently situated in a weak shear environment over SSTs of around 30 deg C. Strengthening is likely, and the system will probably be nearing hurricane intensity in a couple of days. Later in the forecast period, cooler ocean waters and a more stable air mass should cause gradual weakening. The official forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity model consensus. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.2N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.7N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 23.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 26.3N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 28.2N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 678 FOPZ12 KNHC 020243 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 2(21) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 1(16) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 23(23) 39(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 6(28) X(28) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 020242 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 900 PM CST Mon Sep 01 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 105.4W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system will likely become a tropical storm on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of the depression will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa tonight into Tuesday, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting portions of Baja California Sur by Wednesday and persist through Friday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible here, although there is uncertainty with these totals, and higher amounts are possible. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility depending on the track and strength of the system. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Sep 01 the center of Twelve-E was located near 17.2, -105.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 619 WTPZ22 KNHC 020242 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 107.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 113.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.3N 113.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.2N 111.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of northern and western Oklahoma this evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of south-central Arizona. ...Northwest Oklahoma... At mid-levels on water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is moving across the central U.S., embedded in northwesterly flow. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in the southern and central Plains with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP has a pocket of moderate instability over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this pocket of instability. These storms will persist for a couple more hours, moving southeastward across parts of western and central Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings in north-central Oklahoma early this evening have 0-6 km near 45 knots. In addition, the Oklahoma City 00Z soundings has a somewhat steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer. This suggests that isolated severe gust will be possible with the stronger cells. Hail could also occur. ...Northeast North Dakota... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over parts of the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass in place with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near an axis of maximized low-level convergence in northeastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. Although a strong storm will be possible this evening, any severe threat is expected to be limited due to weak deep-layer shear and poor lapse rates. ...South-central Arizona... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture over south-central Arizona. A few thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume in the Phoenix area. This convection is located within a pocket of instability, where SBCAPE values are estimated in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The 00Z sounding at Tuscon has a surface dewpoints of 55 F, with 0-3 km lapse rates of 9.7 C/km, with a dry adiabatic temperature profile from the surface to 700 mb. This should be favorable for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cells for another hour or two. ..Broyles.. 09/02/2025 Read more