Aggregator

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020851 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 1 45(46) 21(67) 4(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 130W 50 X 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 130W 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 67(76) 13(89) 1(90) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 19(60) X(60) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 15(38) 1(39) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 28(55) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 ...KIKO BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 127.9W ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 127.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Sep 01 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -127.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 127.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 020850 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 1(22) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 20N 110W 34 1 74(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 110W 50 X 19(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 30(36) 6(42) X(42) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 089 WTPZ32 KNHC 020849 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur later today or on Wednesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system will likely become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of the depression will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and potentially persist through Saturday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across portions of the area. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Sep 02 the center of Twelve-E was located near 17.6, -106.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 476 WTPZ22 KNHC 020848 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast late this week, ejecting into the Atlantic by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, a more progressive pattern will ensue, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs poised to traverse the CONUS early into the middle of next week. Despite differences among medium-range guidance members, there is general agreement that a surface cold front will encounter seasonal low-level moisture across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), promoting thunderstorm potential (some of which may be strong). However, any severe threat accompanying these storms is expected to be localized and isolated. Surface high pressure will then become established from the MS River Valley eastward, allowing for moisture return across the Plains states by next week. Nonetheless, overall forcing for ascent, along with buoyancy, are expected to be weak over the Plains next week, with severe potential currently appearing low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast late this week, ejecting into the Atlantic by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, a more progressive pattern will ensue, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs poised to traverse the CONUS early into the middle of next week. Despite differences among medium-range guidance members, there is general agreement that a surface cold front will encounter seasonal low-level moisture across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), promoting thunderstorm potential (some of which may be strong). However, any severe threat accompanying these storms is expected to be localized and isolated. Surface high pressure will then become established from the MS River Valley eastward, allowing for moisture return across the Plains states by next week. Nonetheless, overall forcing for ascent, along with buoyancy, are expected to be weak over the Plains next week, with severe potential currently appearing low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast late this week, ejecting into the Atlantic by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, a more progressive pattern will ensue, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs poised to traverse the CONUS early into the middle of next week. Despite differences among medium-range guidance members, there is general agreement that a surface cold front will encounter seasonal low-level moisture across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), promoting thunderstorm potential (some of which may be strong). However, any severe threat accompanying these storms is expected to be localized and isolated. Surface high pressure will then become established from the MS River Valley eastward, allowing for moisture return across the Plains states by next week. Nonetheless, overall forcing for ascent, along with buoyancy, are expected to be weak over the Plains next week, with severe potential currently appearing low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast late this week, ejecting into the Atlantic by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, a more progressive pattern will ensue, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs poised to traverse the CONUS early into the middle of next week. Despite differences among medium-range guidance members, there is general agreement that a surface cold front will encounter seasonal low-level moisture across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), promoting thunderstorm potential (some of which may be strong). However, any severe threat accompanying these storms is expected to be localized and isolated. Surface high pressure will then become established from the MS River Valley eastward, allowing for moisture return across the Plains states by next week. Nonetheless, overall forcing for ascent, along with buoyancy, are expected to be weak over the Plains next week, with severe potential currently appearing low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast late this week, ejecting into the Atlantic by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, a more progressive pattern will ensue, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs poised to traverse the CONUS early into the middle of next week. Despite differences among medium-range guidance members, there is general agreement that a surface cold front will encounter seasonal low-level moisture across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), promoting thunderstorm potential (some of which may be strong). However, any severe threat accompanying these storms is expected to be localized and isolated. Surface high pressure will then become established from the MS River Valley eastward, allowing for moisture return across the Plains states by next week. Nonetheless, overall forcing for ascent, along with buoyancy, are expected to be weak over the Plains next week, with severe potential currently appearing low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany a band of thunderstorms across parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread much of the central and eastern CONUS on Thursday. Through the period, a mid-level impulse will pivot around the broader cyclonic flow into Quebec while an even more potent embedded mid-level trough rapidly amplifies over the Midwest. As a result, a surface cold front will rapidly surge eastward over the Appalachians and impinge on the East Coast, where seasonal low-level moisture will be in place to support an extensive band of thunderstorms. Given overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, a few storms may be strong to severe. ...Central Appalachians... The cold front will surge to the east during the late morning into early afternoon hours, encountering low 60s F dewpoints over the central Appalachians. Tropospheric lapse rates should be poor, yielding thin MLCAPE profiles in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The lack of stronger buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, strengthening and veering of the 850-500 mb flow with height will encourage curved/elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. A broken squall line should develop ahead of the cold front, perhaps with transient rotating cells, capable of mainly damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany a band of thunderstorms across parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread much of the central and eastern CONUS on Thursday. Through the period, a mid-level impulse will pivot around the broader cyclonic flow into Quebec while an even more potent embedded mid-level trough rapidly amplifies over the Midwest. As a result, a surface cold front will rapidly surge eastward over the Appalachians and impinge on the East Coast, where seasonal low-level moisture will be in place to support an extensive band of thunderstorms. Given overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, a few storms may be strong to severe. ...Central Appalachians... The cold front will surge to the east during the late morning into early afternoon hours, encountering low 60s F dewpoints over the central Appalachians. Tropospheric lapse rates should be poor, yielding thin MLCAPE profiles in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The lack of stronger buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, strengthening and veering of the 850-500 mb flow with height will encourage curved/elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. A broken squall line should develop ahead of the cold front, perhaps with transient rotating cells, capable of mainly damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany a band of thunderstorms across parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread much of the central and eastern CONUS on Thursday. Through the period, a mid-level impulse will pivot around the broader cyclonic flow into Quebec while an even more potent embedded mid-level trough rapidly amplifies over the Midwest. As a result, a surface cold front will rapidly surge eastward over the Appalachians and impinge on the East Coast, where seasonal low-level moisture will be in place to support an extensive band of thunderstorms. Given overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, a few storms may be strong to severe. ...Central Appalachians... The cold front will surge to the east during the late morning into early afternoon hours, encountering low 60s F dewpoints over the central Appalachians. Tropospheric lapse rates should be poor, yielding thin MLCAPE profiles in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The lack of stronger buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, strengthening and veering of the 850-500 mb flow with height will encourage curved/elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. A broken squall line should develop ahead of the cold front, perhaps with transient rotating cells, capable of mainly damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany a band of thunderstorms across parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread much of the central and eastern CONUS on Thursday. Through the period, a mid-level impulse will pivot around the broader cyclonic flow into Quebec while an even more potent embedded mid-level trough rapidly amplifies over the Midwest. As a result, a surface cold front will rapidly surge eastward over the Appalachians and impinge on the East Coast, where seasonal low-level moisture will be in place to support an extensive band of thunderstorms. Given overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, a few storms may be strong to severe. ...Central Appalachians... The cold front will surge to the east during the late morning into early afternoon hours, encountering low 60s F dewpoints over the central Appalachians. Tropospheric lapse rates should be poor, yielding thin MLCAPE profiles in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The lack of stronger buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, strengthening and veering of the 850-500 mb flow with height will encourage curved/elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. A broken squall line should develop ahead of the cold front, perhaps with transient rotating cells, capable of mainly damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany a band of thunderstorms across parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread much of the central and eastern CONUS on Thursday. Through the period, a mid-level impulse will pivot around the broader cyclonic flow into Quebec while an even more potent embedded mid-level trough rapidly amplifies over the Midwest. As a result, a surface cold front will rapidly surge eastward over the Appalachians and impinge on the East Coast, where seasonal low-level moisture will be in place to support an extensive band of thunderstorms. Given overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, a few storms may be strong to severe. ...Central Appalachians... The cold front will surge to the east during the late morning into early afternoon hours, encountering low 60s F dewpoints over the central Appalachians. Tropospheric lapse rates should be poor, yielding thin MLCAPE profiles in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The lack of stronger buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, strengthening and veering of the 850-500 mb flow with height will encourage curved/elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. A broken squall line should develop ahead of the cold front, perhaps with transient rotating cells, capable of mainly damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper-level low continues to shift northward through D2/Wednesday, the isolated dry thunderstorms chances will continue across northern California into central Oregon, southern Washington, and western Idaho. Storm motions will decrease but coverage and moisture may also decrease with more isolated lingering activity expected. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper-level low continues to shift northward through D2/Wednesday, the isolated dry thunderstorms chances will continue across northern California into central Oregon, southern Washington, and western Idaho. Storm motions will decrease but coverage and moisture may also decrease with more isolated lingering activity expected. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more