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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to account for recent convective trends. Through 15 UTC this morning, radar rainfall estimates and lightning data suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is ongoing across the Central Valley. Additional thunderstorm development remains likely through the evening hours across northern CA, northwest NV, and central OR. While 12 UTC guidance has captured the ongoing activity well, most solutions initialized with a notable warm/dry bias across northern CA and adjacent portions of OR/NV, suggesting that moisture quality may be slightly better than depicted by morning solutions. Additionally, mid/high-level cloud cover associated with the ongoing showers/thunderstorms will continue to spread north and may modulate diurnal heating/mixing to some degree over parts of northern CA/southern OR. These factors, coupled with forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches, hint that a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms is probable for northern CA/southern OR with an increasing chance for dry lightning with north and eastward extent if/where storms can develop ahead of the approaching cloud cover. ..Moore.. 09/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper-level low will move northward across northern California into the Pacific Northwest today through D2/Wednesday, with increases in moisture and forcing leading to thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values will approach 0.60-0.90", decreasing with eastward extent across eastern Oregon/western Nevada. Faster storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely lead to a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. New starts will be possible where little to no precipitation occurs, with ERCs around the 80th-90th percentile across portions of these regions. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained with this outlook across portions of northern California into western Nevada an northward into central Oregon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made to account for recent convective trends. Through 15 UTC this morning, radar rainfall estimates and lightning data suggest a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is ongoing across the Central Valley. Additional thunderstorm development remains likely through the evening hours across northern CA, northwest NV, and central OR. While 12 UTC guidance has captured the ongoing activity well, most solutions initialized with a notable warm/dry bias across northern CA and adjacent portions of OR/NV, suggesting that moisture quality may be slightly better than depicted by morning solutions. Additionally, mid/high-level cloud cover associated with the ongoing showers/thunderstorms will continue to spread north and may modulate diurnal heating/mixing to some degree over parts of northern CA/southern OR. These factors, coupled with forecast PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches, hint that a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms is probable for northern CA/southern OR with an increasing chance for dry lightning with north and eastward extent if/where storms can develop ahead of the approaching cloud cover. ..Moore.. 09/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A weak upper-level low will move northward across northern California into the Pacific Northwest today through D2/Wednesday, with increases in moisture and forcing leading to thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values will approach 0.60-0.90", decreasing with eastward extent across eastern Oregon/western Nevada. Faster storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely lead to a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. New starts will be possible where little to no precipitation occurs, with ERCs around the 80th-90th percentile across portions of these regions. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained with this outlook across portions of northern California into western Nevada an northward into central Oregon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:27:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:27:09 GMT

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 021500 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 GOES-East imagery depicts a steadily improving convective structure, where earlier the presentation was more elongated, but more recently is taking on a banded structure with bursting overshooting tops near the center, suggesting better overall organization of the small core. Recent Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB are at 2.5 and 3.5, respectively, indicative of the intensification. As such, initial intensity is set at 40 kt, slightly favoring the TAFB estimate though satellite trends continue to improve. Thus, Tropical Depression Twelve-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lorena. The cyclone is now moving northwestward at 12 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge should steer the storm generally northwestward for the next couple of days. However, the strength and therefore, depth of the cyclone will have a sizable impact on its expected track and potential recurvature towards Baja California. Model solutions that are stronger bring the cyclone northward and eastward relative to the overall guidance suite closer to Baja California earlier. Thus interests along Baja California Sur should monitor updates to the track closely. Given overall trends, a slightly faster, northward adjustment to the track was made. The latest track forecast shows landfall in central Baja at 96 hours, but there remains significant spread in the track guidance, with the latest GFS forecast faster and to the east, while the most recent ECMWF forecast is a significant leftward outlier, not ever reaching the Mexican coastline. Given the spread, stay tuned to updates in subsequent forecast packages. Very warm waters and ample deep layer moisture will allow for a steady intensification over the next few days, with increasing potential for Lorena to reach hurricane status in the next next 24 to 48 hours. Lorena is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm in 2-3 days. That factor, in combination with increasing southwesterly vertical shear should result in weakening after that time until landfall across the Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous cycle, but remains a little under the HCCA consensus aid. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California later today or Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will begin to affect Baja California Sur on Wednesday, and southwestern Sonora by Thursday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. 2. Lorena is forecast to approach the Baja California peninsula later this week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of wind impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. Watches could be required for a portion of the Baja California peninsula later today or on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 107.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.4N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.7N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.9N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 23.0N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 23.9N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 24.9N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 26.8N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1200Z 28.9N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Gallina

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 021458 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 6(22) 1(23) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 20N 110W 34 15 72(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 110W 50 2 43(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 110W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 23(41) 2(43) X(43) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER GALLINA

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 095 WTPZ32 KNHC 021457 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LORENA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 107.9W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur later today or on Wednesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 107.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days before slowing and turning north then northeastward toward the latter portion of this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Lorena could reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of Tropical Storm Lorena will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and potentially persist through Friday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Gallina

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LORENA... As of 8:00 AM MST Tue Sep 02 the center of Lorena was located near 18.3, -107.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 021456 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.4N 109.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.7N 111.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.9N 112.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 113.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.9N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.8N 113.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 111.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER GALLINA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 14:40:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 14:40:38 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021439 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 Over the past 6 hours, Kiko's eye has become apparent on nighttime visible imagery, and at times it has also showed up in the infrared imagery. The small hurricane is clearly intensifying. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 77-90 kt, while the UW-CIMSS objective estimates have been running in the 60-74 kt range. The initial intensity estimate of 75 kt represents an average of these estimates. Kiko continues moving slowly westward, or 270 degrees at 5 kt. The main steering feature continues to be the subtropical ridge located to the north of Kiko. A slow westward motion should continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 3 and 4 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge. There remains above normal along-track spread in the model suite, but not as much spread as yesterday, and the day 5 positions of the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement. The official day 5 position is relatively close to an average of those models. Only minor adjustments have been made to the official forecast, which lies close to the TVCE consensus. Through the next 48 h, Kiko should remain over sea-surface temperatures of 27-28C, with light to moderate easterly wind shear of 10-15 kt. The environmental air is a bit dry and stable, and this might prevent rapid intensification. However, steady strengthening still appears likely over the next day or two. By day 4, Kiko will reach somewhat cooler water temperatures as it moves into a drier environment. The new NHC forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity of 100 kt, and is near the high end of the intensity guidance suite through day 3. Some weakening is likely in 4-5 days when Kiko reaches the cooler water and drier air, but the official forecast still maintains Kiko at hurricane strength through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.8N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021437 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 8 46(54) 9(63) 2(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 130W 50 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 130W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 68(88) 4(92) 1(93) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 54(58) 6(64) 1(65) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 6(43) 1(44) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 20(60) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 128.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...HURRICANE KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 128.3W ABOUT 1815 MI...2920 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 128.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected late this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Kiko could become a major hurricane by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...HURRICANE KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Sep 02 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -128.3 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:58:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 09:27:27 GMT