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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... An upper trough initially over central Canada will dig southeastward into the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity during the period. Showers and weak thunderstorms ongoing this morning over MN, aided by an MCV over northern MN, will gradually dissipate with differential heating/residual outflow arcing from southern MN west-northwestward towards the Dakotas/MN border by mid afternoon. A cold front initially over ND will advance southeastward into an adequately moist airmass, featuring surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F ahead of it. Diurnal heating will likely yield moderate SBCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) ahead of the front by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance is consistent in showing a band of scattered thunderstorms developing from the eastern half of SD into central MN by the mid-late afternoon. Upscale growth with higher storm coverage is expected from near the MN/SD border eastward into central and southern MN during the 22-02 UTC period. The stronger mid- and upper-level flow will likely lag behind the surface front and limit effective shear magnitudes (at or below 25 kt). However, a few organized multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail before this activity subsides during the early-mid evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... An upper trough initially over central Canada will dig southeastward into the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity during the period. Showers and weak thunderstorms ongoing this morning over MN, aided by an MCV over northern MN, will gradually dissipate with differential heating/residual outflow arcing from southern MN west-northwestward towards the Dakotas/MN border by mid afternoon. A cold front initially over ND will advance southeastward into an adequately moist airmass, featuring surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F ahead of it. Diurnal heating will likely yield moderate SBCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) ahead of the front by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance is consistent in showing a band of scattered thunderstorms developing from the eastern half of SD into central MN by the mid-late afternoon. Upscale growth with higher storm coverage is expected from near the MN/SD border eastward into central and southern MN during the 22-02 UTC period. The stronger mid- and upper-level flow will likely lag behind the surface front and limit effective shear magnitudes (at or below 25 kt). However, a few organized multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail before this activity subsides during the early-mid evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... An upper trough initially over central Canada will dig southeastward into the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity during the period. Showers and weak thunderstorms ongoing this morning over MN, aided by an MCV over northern MN, will gradually dissipate with differential heating/residual outflow arcing from southern MN west-northwestward towards the Dakotas/MN border by mid afternoon. A cold front initially over ND will advance southeastward into an adequately moist airmass, featuring surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F ahead of it. Diurnal heating will likely yield moderate SBCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) ahead of the front by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance is consistent in showing a band of scattered thunderstorms developing from the eastern half of SD into central MN by the mid-late afternoon. Upscale growth with higher storm coverage is expected from near the MN/SD border eastward into central and southern MN during the 22-02 UTC period. The stronger mid- and upper-level flow will likely lag behind the surface front and limit effective shear magnitudes (at or below 25 kt). However, a few organized multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail before this activity subsides during the early-mid evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... An upper trough initially over central Canada will dig southeastward into the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity during the period. Showers and weak thunderstorms ongoing this morning over MN, aided by an MCV over northern MN, will gradually dissipate with differential heating/residual outflow arcing from southern MN west-northwestward towards the Dakotas/MN border by mid afternoon. A cold front initially over ND will advance southeastward into an adequately moist airmass, featuring surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F ahead of it. Diurnal heating will likely yield moderate SBCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) ahead of the front by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance is consistent in showing a band of scattered thunderstorms developing from the eastern half of SD into central MN by the mid-late afternoon. Upscale growth with higher storm coverage is expected from near the MN/SD border eastward into central and southern MN during the 22-02 UTC period. The stronger mid- and upper-level flow will likely lag behind the surface front and limit effective shear magnitudes (at or below 25 kt). However, a few organized multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail before this activity subsides during the early-mid evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... An upper trough initially over central Canada will dig southeastward into the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity during the period. Showers and weak thunderstorms ongoing this morning over MN, aided by an MCV over northern MN, will gradually dissipate with differential heating/residual outflow arcing from southern MN west-northwestward towards the Dakotas/MN border by mid afternoon. A cold front initially over ND will advance southeastward into an adequately moist airmass, featuring surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F ahead of it. Diurnal heating will likely yield moderate SBCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) ahead of the front by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance is consistent in showing a band of scattered thunderstorms developing from the eastern half of SD into central MN by the mid-late afternoon. Upscale growth with higher storm coverage is expected from near the MN/SD border eastward into central and southern MN during the 22-02 UTC period. The stronger mid- and upper-level flow will likely lag behind the surface front and limit effective shear magnitudes (at or below 25 kt). However, a few organized multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail before this activity subsides during the early-mid evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/02/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well east of the Hawaiian
Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin
over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located in the east Pacific basin
about 200 miles west-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:58:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 09:27:27 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:58:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:58:14 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 256 WTPZ42 KNHC 020856 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 The tropical depression has been relatively steady overnight. Periodic bursts of deep convection continue to form over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C. A scatterometer pass from 0335 UTC showed a small circulation with reliable winds of 30 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB T2.0 classification. The cyclone is still moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge should soon begin to steer the depression generally northwestward for the next couple of days. By the end of the week, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down as it reaches a weakness in the ridge and gradually turn northward. Over the weekend, the depression is forecast to turn north-northeastward to northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula. The latest official forecast track is west of the previous forecast as a result of an adjustment to the initial position reflecting a delay in the northwestward turn, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Warm waters and a quiescent, moist atmosphere should allow the depression to steadily intensify during the next couple of days. The system is still expected to peak just under hurricane strength. By day 3, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and experience increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing mid-level humidities which should cause gradual weakening. Little changes have been made to the latest intensity forecast. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California later today or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 The tropical depression has been relatively steady overnight. Periodic bursts of deep convection continue to form over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C. A scatterometer pass from 0335 UTC showed a small circulation with reliable winds of 30 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB T2.0 classification. The cyclone is still moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge should soon begin to steer the depression generally northwestward for the next couple of days. By the end of the week, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down as it reaches a weakness in the ridge and gradually turn northward. Over the weekend, the depression is forecast to turn north-northeastward to northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula. The latest official forecast track is west of the previous forecast as a result of an adjustment to the initial position reflecting a delay in the northwestward turn, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Warm waters and a quiescent, moist atmosphere should allow the depression to steadily intensify during the next couple of days. The system is still expected to peak just under hurricane strength. By day 3, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and experience increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing mid-level humidities which should cause gradual weakening. Little changes have been made to the latest intensity forecast. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California later today or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:53:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:53:27 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has improved since the previous advisory, with what appears to be a developing inner-core and hints of an eye evident at times in infrared satellite images. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 4.0/65 kt. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 53 and 71 kt during the past several hours, and have been trending upwards. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to 65 kt, making Kiko a category 1 hurricane. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 4 and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge. It should be noted that there remains considerable along-track spread among the global models, although the GFS and ECMWF day 5 positions have come into much better agreement since the previous model cycle. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is very close to the previous advisory through 60 hours, then slightly to the north of the previous track forecast from day 3 onward. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly light vertical wind shear through day 4. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a somewhat limiting factor for significant intensification, however, remaining between 50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending below 50 percent by days 4 and 5. The latest intensity guidance has trended significantly higher from the previous model cycle, and the official forecast reflects this change and has been nudged upward accordingly. The official intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned with the FSSE intensity consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.8N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020851 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 1 45(46) 21(67) 4(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 130W 50 X 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 130W 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 67(76) 13(89) 1(90) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 19(60) X(60) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 15(38) 1(39) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 28(55) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 ...KIKO BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 127.9W ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 127.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Sep 01 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -127.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 127.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 020850 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 1(22) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 20N 110W 34 1 74(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 110W 50 X 19(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 30(36) 6(42) X(42) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 089 WTPZ32 KNHC 020849 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur later today or on Wednesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system will likely become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of the depression will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and potentially persist through Saturday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across portions of the area. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Sep 02 the center of Twelve-E was located near 17.6, -106.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 476 WTPZ22 KNHC 020848 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI