Aggregator

897
ABPZ20 KNHC 011106
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Kiko is
expected to cross into the central Pacific basin by the weekend.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southwestern Mexico. An area of
low pressure is expected to form from this system within the next
day or so, and it will likely become a tropical depression around
the middle of the week. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Interests in the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 08:41:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 09:21:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 08:41:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 08:41:43 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Kiko remains a compact tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows deep convection developing over the center with cloud top temperatures around -80 C and curved bands wrapping into the circulation. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range from 35 to 45 kt. A 0536 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated peak winds near 34 kt on the northern side of the storm. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Kiko is now moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge located to the north. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a more westward track through about 96 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the west-northwest as it crosses into the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a potential weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands. While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent, there remains considerable spread in the along-track speed among the models. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and leans heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids, which lie on the faster side of the guidance envelope. Light vertical wind shear and modest mid-level moisture should support strengthening during the next few days, although Kiko’s forecast track keeps it near the 26 C isotherm and into a somewhat drier environment after midweek. Based on the latest SHIPS guidance and the cyclone’s small, compact core, a period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out through midweek. Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane within 36 hours and peak at 85 kt in 72 hours, which is near the higher end of the guidance envelope. Beyond that time, any increase in latitude would likely bring the storm over cooler waters, inhibiting any additional significant strengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.1N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 847 FOPZ11 KNHC 010838 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 130W 34 1 11(12) 36(48) 11(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 53(59) 12(71) 1(72) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 31(72) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25(39) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 ...KIKO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 125.5W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 125.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 31 the center of Kiko was located near 14.1, -125.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010837 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.5W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.5W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Portions of the Central Plains... By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind. Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced, though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025 Read more