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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 05:33:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 03:26:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 05:33:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 03:26:38 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 030530 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 1100 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...LORENA STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 110.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 110.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin by late Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is likely to become a hurricane during the next several hours. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could be back to tropical storm status by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through Friday. Significant flash flooding is a possibility. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with localized totals to 4 inches, are expected from the northwest Mexico states of Colima to Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur beginning tonight and continuing through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 11:00 PM MST Tue Sep 02 the center of Lorena was located near 20.7, -110.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin around 155 miles
south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

A flash drought in Ohio has affected agriculture state-wide. Corn and soybeans have begun early senescence, while specialty crops such as tomatoes, cucurbits, peppers, and apples have signs on nutrient deficiency and drought stress. Yields for these crops as well as forages are expected to be low. Surface water for livestock is also drying up, so producers are turning to rural water systems and hauling water. Morning Ag Clips (New York). Sept. 3, 2025.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:43:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 03:26:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:43:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 03:26:36 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 03:21:31 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:43:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:43:55 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 030242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 A pair of AMSR2 and GMI microwave passes from several hours ago revealed that Lorena's structure has improved significantly through the day, with the 37-GHZ channel in particular showing a well-defined cyan ring. The center is embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt. This is also supported by some of the UW-CIMSS objective numbers, and the initial intensity is therefore set--possibly conservatively given the structure--at 55 kt. Lorena has a low-level structure and small size that would make it a prime suspect for rapid intensification, especially since it will be in an environment of low shear and over warm ocean temperatures for the next 36 hours. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) index now shows a 3 in 4 chance of a 30-kt increase in Lorena's winds over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast therefore explicitly shows RI during the next day or so and most closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest guidance, during that time. After 36 hours, increasing shear and colder water temperatures are expected lead to weakening, which itself could be rapid due to Lorena's small size. Although there is significant uncertainty on where Lorena will end up in 4-5 days (see discussion below), the cyclone will likely not exist anymore by day 5, and that is when dissipation is shown in the forecast. Lorena continues to move northwestward, or 315/12 kt. The first 36 hours or so of the track forecast are fairly straightforward, with a slower northwestward motion expected while the cyclone moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico. Things are trickier after 36 hours. Lorena will be moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, but how much northward progress it makes will depend on how long it remains strong. A minority of models, particularly the GFS, keep a stronger Lorena moving northeastward across the Baja California peninsula toward Sonora. However, moderate to strong southwesterly shear is likely to set in over Lorena in 48-72 hours, and a good chunk of the other models, including many of the GEFS ensemble members, keep a weakening Lorena offshore the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with landfall never occurring. This new NHC forecast blends the previous official forecast with the latest HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and GEFS ensemble mean, showing a slower motion on day 4 and 5, and introducing the possibility that Lorena doesn't reach mainland Mexico as a tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will begin to affect Baja California Sur on Wednesday, southwestern Sonora by Thursday, and contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona late Wednesday through Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Mexico, especially in areas of higher terrain. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona through Friday. 2. Although rapid intensification is possible through Wednesday while Lorena is offshore, the storm is expected to weaken while it approaches the Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. Regardless, tropical storm conditions are possible through Thursday along portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur. Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.2N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 21.2N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 22.3N 112.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 23.4N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 24.6N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 25.6N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 26.6N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 28.1N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 454 WTPZ32 KNHC 030242 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...LORENA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 109.7W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 109.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin on Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is likely to become a hurricane overnight. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could be back to tropical storm status by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through Friday. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with localized totals to 4 inches, are expected from the northwest Mexico states of Colima to Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur beginning tonight and continuing through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Sep 02 the center of Lorena was located near 20.2, -109.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 030242 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 21(43) 1(44) X(44) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 88 X(88) X(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 32(50) 7(57) X(57) X(57) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 030241 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 113.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.6N 113.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.1N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 109.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:36:08 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 892 WTPZ41 KNHC 030233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 Recent satellite images show that the low-level center of Kiko is now obscured by a large central dense overcast, possibly due to an increase in northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the outflow now somewhat restricted in the eastern semi-circle. A 02/2155Z AMRS2 microwave pass indicated that the cyclone continues to have a well-defined inner-core, with a break in the eyewall evident in the northwest quadrant at that time. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 72 and 92 kt during the past several hours. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to 90 kt. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 60 hours or so, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. There remains considerable along-track spread among the global models, with the GFS and ECMWF still showing a 240 n mi difference in position on day 5. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of the previous advisory, but with a slightly faster forward speed. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most light vertical wind shear through day 3. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending below 50 percent by days 4 and 5. Despite the drier mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a robust hurricane through day 3, with it likely being a major hurricane for much of that time. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear. This should lead to a steady weakening trend, but Kiko is still forecast to be a hurricane at day 5. The official forecast is on the higher end of the intensity guidance suite, and is most closely aligned with the HCCA and regional hurricane model intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.8N 129.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 133.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 14.1N 135.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 16.1N 141.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 17.3N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO INTENSIFIES TO CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Sep 02 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -129.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.