Aggregator

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 865 FOPZ11 KNHC 030233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 24 5(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 49(82) 8(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 11(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 9(35) X(35) X(35) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 54(56) 26(82) 2(84) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 29(49) X(49) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 1(28) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 864 WTPZ31 KNHC 030233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...KIKO INTENSIFIES TO CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 129.5W ABOUT 1740 MI...2800 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 129.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Kiko is forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 032 WTPZ21 KNHC 030232 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.5W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.5W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 133.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 135.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 141.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.3N 144.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

The Sunnyside Valley Irrigation District, covering the Yakima Valley in Washington, has started a new conservation program in which growers can voluntarily fallow land so water can go to other farmers and local fisheries. Growers who opt into the program are financially compensated. Apple Valley News Now (Washington). Sept. 2, 2025.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 23:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 21:27:05 GMT

A flash drought has developed in the Ozarks, causing leaves to change color in response to stress. Trees are able to conserve water by losing leaves early. Ozarks First (Missouri). Sept. 2, 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the north-central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from central Nebraska into western Minnesota. Isolated strong storms are ongoing near this axis of instability. Near the storms, the Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Sioux City, Iowa. The primary threats will be marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the north-central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from central Nebraska into western Minnesota. Isolated strong storms are ongoing near this axis of instability. Near the storms, the Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Sioux City, Iowa. The primary threats will be marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the north-central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from central Nebraska into western Minnesota. Isolated strong storms are ongoing near this axis of instability. Near the storms, the Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Sioux City, Iowa. The primary threats will be marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the north-central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from central Nebraska into western Minnesota. Isolated strong storms are ongoing near this axis of instability. Near the storms, the Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Sioux City, Iowa. The primary threats will be marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 09/03/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 23:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 21:27:05 GMT

Issued at 500 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 022340 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 500 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...LORENA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 109.2W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches may be required later tonight or on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 109.2 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday night. A generally northward motion, with an additional decrease in forward speed, is forecast Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is likely to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of Lorena will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENA STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 PM MST Tue Sep 02 the center of Lorena was located near 19.8, -109.2 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 500 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 500 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...LORENA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 109.2W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches may be required later tonight or on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 109.2 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday night. A generally northward motion, with an additional decrease in forward speed, is forecast Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is likely to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of Lorena will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 2 23:37:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 2 23:37:01 UTC 2025.

836
ABPZ20 KNHC 022312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin a couple hundred
miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorena are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorena are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

MD 2027 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND FAR NORTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 2027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Areas affected...Eastern SD into southern/central MN and far northwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022016Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon into the early evening. Isolated hail and localized damaging wind are expected to be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed near a surface boundary east of Aberdeen, with gradually increasing cumulus noted farther southwest into east-central SD, and also farther east into central/northeast MN. Clear skies have allowed for diurnal heating/destabilization across parts of eastern SD, where MLCAPE has increased to near/above 1500 J/kg. Parts of MN are still recovering from earlier convection and cloudiness, but short-term guidance suggests at least a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization may evolve through late afternoon from parts of central/northeast MN into far northwest WI. Additional storm development is expected by late afternoon/early evening, with coverage remaining somewhat uncertain with southwestward extent across SD. Mid/upper-level flow is generally not very strong across the region, but modest northwesterly flow atop low-level south-southwesterlies is supporting effective shear of 20-30 kt. A few stronger multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two will be possible. Midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep (generally near 7 C/km), but cooling aloft associated with an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough across ND could support isolated hail potential with the strongest storms. Locally damaging winds will also be possible, especially where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43439924 43949969 44659916 45659670 46319532 47159348 46889240 46559196 45969178 45269292 44429424 43599625 43479845 43439924 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 21:02:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 21:27:05 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 20:40:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 21:21:53 GMT