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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:02:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:21:53 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:02:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:02:00 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030900 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 The low-level center of Kiko remained embedded in a large central dense overcast through most of the past 12 hours, with only the most recent satellite images now showing a more well-defined eye developing surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 83 and 92 kt during the past several hours. Based on these data and little overall change in the satellite presentation since the previous advisory cycle, the initial intensity has been held at 90 kt. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. There remains some along-track spread among the global models, particularly beyond 24 hours, with some cross track spread also noted toward the end of the forecast resulting from differences in the handling of the upper-level trough and subtropical ridge to the north of Kiko. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous advisory. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most light vertical wind shear through day 3. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent through 60 hours, then trending below 50 percent by days 3 through 5. Despite the drier mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a strong hurricane, with the cyclone forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday and remain at that status through day 3. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to a steady weakening, however, Kiko is still forecast to be a hurricane on day 5. The official forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance suite, and is most closely aligned with a blend of the FSSE/HCCA intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 130.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 16.3N 142.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 17.5N 145.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 08:56:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 08:56:01 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 675 WTPZ42 KNHC 030854 TCDEP2 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 Satellite imagery and data from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas indicate that Lorena continues to become better organized, with the radar imagery showing an eyewall wrapped 50-70 percent of the way around the center. Satellite intensity estimates are now in the 55-65 kt range, with subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB being 65 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt and Lorena is upgraded to a hurricane. Steady to rapid intensification is likely during the next 24 h, and while the forecast peak intensity of 85 kt is above the upper edge of the intensity guidance it might be conservative. After that time, Lorena is forecast to move over cooler sea surface temperatures and into an area of southwesterly vertical shear. This should cause significant weakening, and Lorena is expected to weaken back to a tropical storm by 60 h. There is significant uncertainty as to whether Lorena will make landfall in Baja California Sur (see discussion below). If it does, the system should continue weakening and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by 120 h. If it doesn't, the cyclone should continue to weaken over cold water, with dissipation likely west of Baja California Sur by 120 h. The initial motion is now 320/12 kt. The first 24 h or so of the track forecast remain fairly straightforward, with a slower northwestward motion expected while the cyclone moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico. After that time, Lorena will be moving into a weakness in the subtropical ridge as it starts to encounter the less favorable environment. The GFS model maintains a stronger and deeper Lorena and breaks open the weakness in about 36 h, allowing the cyclone to recurve north-northeastward into northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF and Canadian models have a weaker Lorena and take about 12 h longer to break open the ridge. This results in Lorena shearing apart with the low-level center turning westward over the Pacific west of Baja California Sur. Based on current intensity trends, the track forecast leans toward the GFS solution and shows Lorena crossing Baja California Sur in 60-72 h. However, there is still the possibility that the cyclone does not reach the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies along the east side of the consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur, moving into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, and contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona late Wednesday through Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Mexico, especially in areas of higher terrain. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona through Friday. 2. Although rapid intensification is possible through tonight while Lorena is offshore, the storm is expected to weaken while it approaches the Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Thursday night. Regardless, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical Storm conditions are also possible through Friday along other portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 21.2N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 22.2N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 24.2N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 25.3N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 26.4N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 27.4N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 030854 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 24(34) 17(51) X(51) X(51) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 31(35) 16(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) 25N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 975 WTPZ32 KNHC 030853 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 110.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Baja California Sur north of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Fe. * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 110.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin by late Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and Thursday and then approach the coast Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast through tonight. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and far southeast Baja California through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals to 4 inches, is expected from the northwest Mexico states of Sinaloa and Sonora northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe later today through Thursday, and in the watch area north of Cabo San Lazaro Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur beginning this morning and continuing through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 21.2, -110.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 093 FOPZ11 KNHC 030853 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 60(63) 24(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 21(21) 32(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 64(68) 17(85) 1(86) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 22(54) X(54) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) X(32) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 911 WTPZ31 KNHC 030852 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...KIKO MAINTAINS CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 130.1W ABOUT 1700 MI...2735 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 130.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Kiko is forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO MAINTAINS CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Sep 02 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -130.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 998 WTPZ22 KNHC 030852 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.2N 111.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 113.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.3N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.4N 113.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.4N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 110.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 997 WTPZ21 KNHC 030852 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 142.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 145.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western North American midlevel ridge of the previous days will slowly move east into the central continent by the end of the forecast period and in its place an amplified longwave trough will take hold across the western US. ... Saturday/Day-4 ... Before this transition happens, a seasonably strong cold front will push east into the Atlantic and south into the northern Gulf states as an expansive surface high will move into the central US on Saturday/Day-4. Guidance disagrees to the degree instability will materialize along and ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. However, pattern recognition would support scattered strong thunderstorms along the front across this region. Midlevel flow will be sufficiently strong to support at least some damaging wind potential should thunderstorms develop. ... Sunday/Day-5 through Wednesday/Day-8 ... A seasonably cool, dry continental airmass will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous US, resulting in low potential of organized severe thunderstorms on Sunday/Day-5. That said, as the western trough takes hold, lee troughing will develop across the High Plains. This will result in return flow drawing low-level northward by early next week. Weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded in the increasingly southwesterly flow may yield thunderstorms across the High Plains during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Depending on the quality of the resulting low-level moisture return and the strength of any of these shortwave troughs, the potential for organized severe thunderstorms may develop, especially later in the forecast period. However, predictability of these features at this time scale is too low to warrant unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western North American midlevel ridge of the previous days will slowly move east into the central continent by the end of the forecast period and in its place an amplified longwave trough will take hold across the western US. ... Saturday/Day-4 ... Before this transition happens, a seasonably strong cold front will push east into the Atlantic and south into the northern Gulf states as an expansive surface high will move into the central US on Saturday/Day-4. Guidance disagrees to the degree instability will materialize along and ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. However, pattern recognition would support scattered strong thunderstorms along the front across this region. Midlevel flow will be sufficiently strong to support at least some damaging wind potential should thunderstorms develop. ... Sunday/Day-5 through Wednesday/Day-8 ... A seasonably cool, dry continental airmass will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous US, resulting in low potential of organized severe thunderstorms on Sunday/Day-5. That said, as the western trough takes hold, lee troughing will develop across the High Plains. This will result in return flow drawing low-level northward by early next week. Weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded in the increasingly southwesterly flow may yield thunderstorms across the High Plains during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Depending on the quality of the resulting low-level moisture return and the strength of any of these shortwave troughs, the potential for organized severe thunderstorms may develop, especially later in the forecast period. However, predictability of these features at this time scale is too low to warrant unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western North American midlevel ridge of the previous days will slowly move east into the central continent by the end of the forecast period and in its place an amplified longwave trough will take hold across the western US. ... Saturday/Day-4 ... Before this transition happens, a seasonably strong cold front will push east into the Atlantic and south into the northern Gulf states as an expansive surface high will move into the central US on Saturday/Day-4. Guidance disagrees to the degree instability will materialize along and ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. However, pattern recognition would support scattered strong thunderstorms along the front across this region. Midlevel flow will be sufficiently strong to support at least some damaging wind potential should thunderstorms develop. ... Sunday/Day-5 through Wednesday/Day-8 ... A seasonably cool, dry continental airmass will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous US, resulting in low potential of organized severe thunderstorms on Sunday/Day-5. That said, as the western trough takes hold, lee troughing will develop across the High Plains. This will result in return flow drawing low-level northward by early next week. Weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded in the increasingly southwesterly flow may yield thunderstorms across the High Plains during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Depending on the quality of the resulting low-level moisture return and the strength of any of these shortwave troughs, the potential for organized severe thunderstorms may develop, especially later in the forecast period. However, predictability of these features at this time scale is too low to warrant unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western North American midlevel ridge of the previous days will slowly move east into the central continent by the end of the forecast period and in its place an amplified longwave trough will take hold across the western US. ... Saturday/Day-4 ... Before this transition happens, a seasonably strong cold front will push east into the Atlantic and south into the northern Gulf states as an expansive surface high will move into the central US on Saturday/Day-4. Guidance disagrees to the degree instability will materialize along and ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. However, pattern recognition would support scattered strong thunderstorms along the front across this region. Midlevel flow will be sufficiently strong to support at least some damaging wind potential should thunderstorms develop. ... Sunday/Day-5 through Wednesday/Day-8 ... A seasonably cool, dry continental airmass will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous US, resulting in low potential of organized severe thunderstorms on Sunday/Day-5. That said, as the western trough takes hold, lee troughing will develop across the High Plains. This will result in return flow drawing low-level northward by early next week. Weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded in the increasingly southwesterly flow may yield thunderstorms across the High Plains during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Depending on the quality of the resulting low-level moisture return and the strength of any of these shortwave troughs, the potential for organized severe thunderstorms may develop, especially later in the forecast period. However, predictability of these features at this time scale is too low to warrant unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western North American midlevel ridge of the previous days will slowly move east into the central continent by the end of the forecast period and in its place an amplified longwave trough will take hold across the western US. ... Saturday/Day-4 ... Before this transition happens, a seasonably strong cold front will push east into the Atlantic and south into the northern Gulf states as an expansive surface high will move into the central US on Saturday/Day-4. Guidance disagrees to the degree instability will materialize along and ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. However, pattern recognition would support scattered strong thunderstorms along the front across this region. Midlevel flow will be sufficiently strong to support at least some damaging wind potential should thunderstorms develop. ... Sunday/Day-5 through Wednesday/Day-8 ... A seasonably cool, dry continental airmass will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous US, resulting in low potential of organized severe thunderstorms on Sunday/Day-5. That said, as the western trough takes hold, lee troughing will develop across the High Plains. This will result in return flow drawing low-level northward by early next week. Weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded in the increasingly southwesterly flow may yield thunderstorms across the High Plains during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Depending on the quality of the resulting low-level moisture return and the strength of any of these shortwave troughs, the potential for organized severe thunderstorms may develop, especially later in the forecast period. However, predictability of these features at this time scale is too low to warrant unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western North American midlevel ridge of the previous days will slowly move east into the central continent by the end of the forecast period and in its place an amplified longwave trough will take hold across the western US. ... Saturday/Day-4 ... Before this transition happens, a seasonably strong cold front will push east into the Atlantic and south into the northern Gulf states as an expansive surface high will move into the central US on Saturday/Day-4. Guidance disagrees to the degree instability will materialize along and ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. However, pattern recognition would support scattered strong thunderstorms along the front across this region. Midlevel flow will be sufficiently strong to support at least some damaging wind potential should thunderstorms develop. ... Sunday/Day-5 through Wednesday/Day-8 ... A seasonably cool, dry continental airmass will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous US, resulting in low potential of organized severe thunderstorms on Sunday/Day-5. That said, as the western trough takes hold, lee troughing will develop across the High Plains. This will result in return flow drawing low-level northward by early next week. Weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded in the increasingly southwesterly flow may yield thunderstorms across the High Plains during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Depending on the quality of the resulting low-level moisture return and the strength of any of these shortwave troughs, the potential for organized severe thunderstorms may develop, especially later in the forecast period. However, predictability of these features at this time scale is too low to warrant unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the West, the southern Rockies, Florida, and along and near a frontal boundary from New England into the southern Plains. Widespread organized severe weather is not anticipated. ... Discussion ... The amplified midlevel pattern of the previous few days will persist through Friday/Day-3 across North America, with a western Canada ridge and a continental-scale trough across eastern Canada and the eastern US. Within the eastern trough, a seasonably strong closed low over Ontario should begin to fill by late in the forecast period. As this is occurring, multiple shortwave troughs traversing the larger scale flow field will rotate around the Ontario low. The strongest of these shortwave troughs will have moved south through Canada the day before and should be located in the vicinity of the Lower Great Lakes at the start of the forecast period. In response to this shortwave trough, strong northerly low-to-mid-level flow across the Plains overnight Thursday into Friday will help tighten the low-level thermal gradient across the Plains. This front will slowly move south through Friday into Friday night. A modest surface low is expected to develop across southwest Oklahoma or northwest Texas, along the surface front, by Friday morning. This surface low should slowly sag south through the day with the front. Despite moving south, away from Oklahoma, the flow around this surface low will still be able to draw Gulf moisture northward into Oklahoma and Arkansas. As this increasing low-level moisture converges along the front, diurnal heating of this moistening airmass will yield most-unstable CAPE values perhaps in excess of 3000 J/kg along and south of the surface front. Despite the strong instability and strong thermal gradient, the slow moving nature of the front will tend to favor anafrontal circulations. This appears to be borne out in the latest operational guidance suite with precipitation being favored on the cold side of the thermal gradient. This would tend to limit the overall risk of severe weather. However, given the degree of instability and the presence of a strong cold front, the risk of warm-sector convection remains. If confidence in warm-sector convection occurring increases, severe probabilities may be warranted across portions of eastern Oklahoma east through Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. ..Marsh.. 09/03/2025 Read more