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Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 031454 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 111.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Baja California Sur from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Fe. * West Coast of Baja California Sur from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 111.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected late Thursday and early Friday, with a gradual turn toward the northeast by late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight and then approach the coast late Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue through this evening. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 4 inches, are expected from the Mexico states of Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight, and spreading northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe through tonight, and in the watch area north of Punta Abreojos Thursday night and early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 8:00 AM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 22.3, -111.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 031454 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.5N 113.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.4N 113.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.4N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 14:53:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 14:53:38 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031451 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 Kiko is getting better organized on satellite with an eye clearing out over the past 6 to 12 hours with recent satellite images showing the eye being surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt at 12Z but since that time the structure has improved on satellite while the objective ADT estimate was 99 knots. The initial intensity has been set at 95 kt as a compromise between these estimates. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. The track guidance this cycle was tightly clustered through day 3. After that time, the European ensemble shows a significant increase in spread in both the along- and cross-track directions. The official track forecast remains close to the HCCA and GDMI model solutions and is on the southern side of the overall model envelope of solutions. Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for at least the next 3 days. Kiko's intensity will therefore likely be governed by inner-core structural changes. Given its current single eye-wall structure seen on earlier AMSR-2 microwave imagery, Kiko appears poised to intensify more in the short term and the latest intensity forecast shows more intensification than the previous advisory. This intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance suite closest to the HAFS-A and HAFS-B forecast over the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, cooler SSTs and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should lead to gradual weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 13.9N 130.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.2N 135.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 14.6N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 15.2N 140.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.8N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 18.5N 147.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 031450 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 18(18) 67(85) 6(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 50(51) 11(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 24(24) 10(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 81(91) 2(93) X(93) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 66(67) 4(71) X(71) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 4(46) 1(47) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 5(33) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20(38) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BANN

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031450 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 130.6W ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 130.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual shift towards the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Kiko is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Bann

...KIKO EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM HST Wed Sep 03 the center of Kiko was located near 13.9, -130.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 031449 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 135.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 136.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.2N 140.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 143.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 147.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 130.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BANN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 08:56:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:27:09 GMT

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD moving quickly southeast as a larger-scale mid- to upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior during the period. The smaller-scale disturbance is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid- to high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. In the low levels, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley with 60s deg F surface dewpoints ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon with convective inhibition eroding near the front. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from central KS eastward into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00 UTC period. The aforementioned strong northwesterly flow in the 500 to 300 mb layer (35-55 kt) will yield effective shear supporting organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across KS and perhaps into western MO where the main risk will be large to very large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or small clusters/bowing segments where 0-2 km lapse rates are steepest (i.e., KS). The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and adjacent portions of northern OK and southwest Missouri. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD moving quickly southeast as a larger-scale mid- to upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior during the period. The smaller-scale disturbance is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid- to high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. In the low levels, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley with 60s deg F surface dewpoints ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon with convective inhibition eroding near the front. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from central KS eastward into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00 UTC period. The aforementioned strong northwesterly flow in the 500 to 300 mb layer (35-55 kt) will yield effective shear supporting organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across KS and perhaps into western MO where the main risk will be large to very large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or small clusters/bowing segments where 0-2 km lapse rates are steepest (i.e., KS). The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and adjacent portions of northern OK and southwest Missouri. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD moving quickly southeast as a larger-scale mid- to upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior during the period. The smaller-scale disturbance is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid- to high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. In the low levels, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley with 60s deg F surface dewpoints ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon with convective inhibition eroding near the front. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from central KS eastward into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00 UTC period. The aforementioned strong northwesterly flow in the 500 to 300 mb layer (35-55 kt) will yield effective shear supporting organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across KS and perhaps into western MO where the main risk will be large to very large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or small clusters/bowing segments where 0-2 km lapse rates are steepest (i.e., KS). The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and adjacent portions of northern OK and southwest Missouri. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD moving quickly southeast as a larger-scale mid- to upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior during the period. The smaller-scale disturbance is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid- to high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. In the low levels, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley with 60s deg F surface dewpoints ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon with convective inhibition eroding near the front. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from central KS eastward into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00 UTC period. The aforementioned strong northwesterly flow in the 500 to 300 mb layer (35-55 kt) will yield effective shear supporting organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across KS and perhaps into western MO where the main risk will be large to very large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or small clusters/bowing segments where 0-2 km lapse rates are steepest (i.e., KS). The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and adjacent portions of northern OK and southwest Missouri. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/03/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031157
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
recently upgraded Hurricane Lorena, located in the East Pacific
basin around 105 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 08:56:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:27:09 GMT

Issued at 500 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 444 WTPZ32 KNHC 031155 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 500 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 111.1W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Fe. * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin by late Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and Thursday and then approach the coast Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue through tonight. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and far southeast Baja California through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals to 4 inches, is expected from the northwest Mexico states of Sinaloa and Sonora northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe today through Thursday, and in the watch area north of Cabo San Lazaro Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur beginning this morning and continuing through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 5:00 AM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 21.9, -111.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 08:56:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:27:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 08:56:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:27:09 GMT