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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:54:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:54:38 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 139 WTPZ41 KNHC 032053 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 Kiko has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane with recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 5.5 and 6.0 from TAFB and SAB respectively. The structure has continued to improve on satellite imagery with the most recent ADT estimate up to 117 knots, and a raw data T number even higher of 6.4. The initial intensity was thus set at the higher end of the subjective Dvorak estimates at 115 knots. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 knots. The forecast track reasoning has changed little for this advisory. A general westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. The track guidance this cycle remained in good agreement through day 3. After that time, the along- and cross-track spread does increase but is still in fairly good agreement through day 5. The official track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids, near the middle of the model envelope of solutions. Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for at least the next 3 days. Kiko's intensity will therefore likely be governed by inner-core structural changes. Kiko is currently in the middle of a period of rapid intensification which is expected to last for at least another 12 hours. Thereafter, it's possible Kiko may undergo an eyewall replacement, though the environment could also allow the hurricane to develop annular characteristics. Thus, the intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance suite, not that far off the reliable HCCA consensus aid over the first 72 hours. After that time, cooler SSTs and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should lead to a faster rate of weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 131.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032052 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 1 66(67) 21(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 135W 50 X 16(16) 27(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 135W 64 X 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 64(93) 1(94) X(94) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 67(74) 1(75) X(75) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 1(52) X(52) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 2(36) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BANN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032051 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 131.6W ABOUT 1600 MI...2580 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 131.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual shift towards the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or two followed by fluctuations in intensity. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bann

...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Sep 03 the center of Kiko was located near 13.9, -131.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032051 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 131.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BANN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 032045 TCDEP2 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated Lorena made two passes through the center, measuring maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt in the NE quadrant and a center dropsonde pressure of 985 mb with 7 kt of wind. The intensity is held at 70 kt based on the reconnaissance data. The data also confirmed that Lorena is rather small in size, with the aircraft data indicating a similar extent of the wind field as to what was previous estimated. Lorena could still intensify for another 6-12 hours while it remains over warm water and in low wind shear conditions. By 18 hours, the hurricane is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm while southwesterly wind shear also begins to significantly increase. These conditions are expected to lead to rapid weakening beginning by Thursday afternoon. Only minor adjustments were made to the official intensity forecast. The official forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then lies closer to the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. The track guidance hasn't changed too much, but the TVCE, GFEX, and other consensus models are a bit faster with the northeastward motion beyond 36 h, and the NHC track was sped up a bit after that time. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the NHC track forecast. It should be noted that several models indicate a farther left track, with dissipation over water without making landfall. This scenario is possible if the hurricane rapidly weakens by Thursday night and starts to decouple due to the aforementioned increasing southwesterly shear. Regardless of which track scenario pans out, there is very high confidence that heavy rainfall amounts leading to significant flooding will occur in Baja California Sur, especially since the southwesterly upper-level winds favor deep convection to the right side of Lorena. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur, moving into southwestern Sonora by Thursday. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Moisture from Lorena is likely to contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and southern New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday afternoon. 3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula through tonight, and then move closer to the west-central coast of the peninsula on Thursday. Regardless of the exact track, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible beginning Friday along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 22.8N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 23.6N 113.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 24.8N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 26.0N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 27.2N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 28.4N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 29.3N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 032043 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X 8( 8) 33(41) 9(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) P ABREOJOS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 1 36(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 25N 115W 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 032042 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS LORENA STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 112.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch south of Todos Santos to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos northward to Santa Fe. * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 112.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected late Thursday and Thursday night, with a gradual turn toward the northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, approach the coast of Baja California Sur Thursday night, and move inland over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through this evening. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena is expected to weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther northeast, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 5 inches, are expected from portions of the Mexico states of Sinaloa north and northeast into portions of Arizona and southern New Mexico through Saturday afternoon, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight and will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe through tonight, and in the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS LORENA STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 22.8, -112.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 486 WTPZ22 KNHC 032040 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.8N 113.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.0N 113.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.2N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.4N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.3N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 112.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more