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...LORENA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... As of 5:00 PM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 23.1, -112.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin Friday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Hurricane Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin just off the
west coast of Baja California Sur.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Vermont's apple harvest may be 25% smaller than normal this year after a dry summer. One grower in Shoreham reported watering his trees daily this summer, and expects a 16% loss compared to last year. WCAX CBS3 (Vermont). Sept 3, 2025.

Drought stress has caused some Maine trees to lose their leaves several weeks early this year. Aspen and birch have been more susceptible, as are trees located on ridge tops. Maine Public (Maine). Sept. 3, 2025.

MD 2028 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 032143Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells development likely this evening with hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development is noted near the surface low and cold front across central Kansas, with a few storms beginning to develop near the surface trough in western/west-central Kansas. This thunderstorm development is occurring on the edge of a region of MLCIN across much of southeastern Kansas in Oklahoma. With daytime heating under mostly sunny skies, temperatures in this region in the low to mid 80s. As the cold front shifts southward, additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next couple of hours. The environment is favorable for supercells, with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and shear 40-50 kts. VAD profiles from TWX and ICT show linear hodograph structures, indicative of supercells that favor splits and potential for large hail and damaging winds. A watch will likely be needed soon to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39429730 39259630 38989535 38689463 38349441 38079437 37739438 37419455 37099501 37079544 37119613 37139674 37059777 37129852 37259893 37379918 37589939 38109948 38659933 39239870 39429730 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0605 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 3 22:00:02 UTC 2025.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:26:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:11:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:21:32 GMT