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Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 906 WTPZ41 KNHC 060237 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Kiko has continued to intensify this afternoon and remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye is now surrounded by a large ring of very cold cloud tops, and the cyclone has taken on a structure more typical of annular hurricanes. A GMI microwave pass from 2224 UTC confirmed a symmetric inner-core with a complete ring of deep convection around the eye. The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are as high as 122 kt. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB are both T6.0/115 kt. Blending the higher objective estimates with the slightly lower subjective classifications yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone remains steered along the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii is helping to erode the western periphery of the ridge. This general motion with some increase in forward speed should persist through the weekend, with Kiko expected to cross into the central Pacific basin late tonight or early Saturday. The official forecast track is near the HCCA consensus and essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. However, a track slightly to the left of the official forecast would bring Kiko closer to the Big Island. Historically, cyclones approaching the Big Island from the east can slow and deflect northward as the island terrain disrupts the low-level flow and alters the steering currents. Kiko should remain a powerful hurricane for the next 12–24 hours while traversing 26–27 C waters with light north-northeasterly shear. Its annular structure may allow it to resist weakening longer than typical guidance, despite the surrounding dry environment in the mid- to upper levels. Beyond 48 hours, a combination of cooler waters, dry mid-level air, and strengthening west-southwesterly shear exceeding 30 kt will likely induce rapid weakening. The official intensity forecast holds Kiko above most of the available guidance into the weekend, then trends more toward the consensus aids later in the weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.9N 138.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 969 FOPZ11 KNHC 060235 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 75 4(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 140W 64 47 5(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 24(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 77(80) 4(84) X(84) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 4(51) X(51) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 11(71) X(71) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) X(30) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 918 WTPZ31 KNHC 060235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 138.7W ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 138.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible overnight and into Saturday before gradual weakening begins by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 14.9, -138.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 138.7W ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 138.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible overnight and into Saturday before gradual weakening begins by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC) NNNN

...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 14.9, -138.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060234 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.7W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.7W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 138.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 138.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

MD 2040 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606... FOR TN/KY
Mesoscale Discussion 2040 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0820 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...TN/KY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606... Valid 060120Z - 060245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606 continues. SUMMARY...A diminishing severe threat is anticipated through late evening, mainly across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. Additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...An earlier cluster over southern Middle TN weakened substantially, with the near-term severe threat largely focused across northern Middle into northeast TN with a short cluster. Redeveloping convection to the west along the cold front will likely struggle to intensify given that the decayed remnants of the earlier cluster having pushed outflow into far north AL. This is similarly underway across KY where earlier convection across eastern KY into WV has diminished and stabilized the environment somewhat ahead of separate convection trailing along the cold front. ..Grams.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...MEG... LAT...LON 37808236 37578203 36698271 36008359 35658516 35828627 35638761 35608828 35848848 36108816 36618663 37338569 37888408 37878302 37808236 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE HSV TO 50 N MSL TO 30 S CKV TO 25 NNE BNA TO 40 ENE BWG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-013-025-045-051-053-057-063-065-071-079-087-095- 109-115-119-121-125-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-159-165-169-171- 175-189-193-195-197-199-203-207-217-231-235-237-060240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BELL BREATHITT CASEY CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FLOYD GARRARD GREEN HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE METCALFE MONROE MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL TAYLOR WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE Read more

MD 2039 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2039 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northeast Texas into extreme southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060105Z - 060200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts could still occur over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster has produced at least one pronounced downburst, with wind damage noted, along with 1+ inch diameter hail. This complex continues to track north of a zonal frontal boundary, where 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE resides downstream. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the aforementioned buoyancy would continue to support severe gusts. However, MLCINH should also increase with time. The current thinking is that the severe threat should remain confined to the ongoing complex, where a few strong to severe gusts may still occur. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33609698 33949595 34049541 34029494 33789473 33479473 33199507 33109553 33119611 33169669 33609698 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 2038 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2038 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052322Z - 060115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least a few instances of severe wind or hail may accompany the stronger storms this evening, particularly with any supercells that can become established. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying near a surface frontal boundary draped zonally across northern TX (just north of the Metroplex). Ahead of these storms resides a buoyant airmass, characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates over a mixed boundary layer with 15-20 F temperature/dewpoint spreads. Furthermore, general veering with height is contributing to elongated and curved hodographs (albeit with some veer-back-veering within the profiles per RAP forecast soundings). With 40 kt effective bulk shear values overlapping with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of ongoing storms, multicells and supercells are possible, accompanied by both a severe wind/hail risk. The ongoing storm over Denton County is currently exhibiting outflow tendencies per KFWS NEXRAD radar imagery, which will likely help drive the frontal boundary southward. As such, it is unclear how many storms will be able to cross to the warm side of the boundary. Overall, the complex mesoscale setup and undercutting boundaries suggest that the overall severe threat may remain isolated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32429859 32649903 32909921 33139913 33659869 33789812 33739677 33629589 33409549 33099526 32859521 32699538 32429635 32429649 32359777 32429859 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Connecticut Water customers in Clinton, Madison, Guilford, Old Saybrook, and Westbrook have been asked to reduce their water usage by 10% amid stage 1 drought conditions. Patch (CT). Sept. 5, 2025.

MD 2037 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606... FOR MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTH AL
Mesoscale Discussion 2037 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0559 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...Middle TN and far north AL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606... Valid 052259Z - 060100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606 continues. SUMMARY...A more concentrated swath of strong to localized severe gusts is possible with potential for a slow-moving cluster to accelerate across mainly southern Middle Tennessee through mid-evening. DISCUSSION...The deepest convective cores have persisted over the past couple hours across southwest TN. These have congealed into an initially slow-moving cluster into southern Middle TN with forward motion of only 15-20 kts. But with strengthening of the surface temperature gradient, from upper 60s in the emerging cold pool to 85-90 F persisting ahead of the outflow, a more concentrated swath of strong to localized severe gusts may evolve over the next 2-3 hours. This would be coincident with probable acceleration of the cold pool that yields more moderate westerly storm motions into mid-evening. This might eventually approach the southeastern edge of WW 606 and necessitate a local areal extension. Weak low-level west-southwesterlies evident in area VWP data does lower confidence on just how robust the damaging wind threat may become. ..Grams/Mosier.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 35808757 36028694 36128610 36018547 35588533 35228532 34868547 34708578 34638702 34658780 34668835 34978833 35428779 35808757 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Lebanon municipal water customers have been asked to restrict outdoor water use. Watering plants has been restricted to hours between 7 p.m. and 8 a.m. Outdoor washing of impervious surfaces is limited to every other day, with the schedule determined by even and odd numbered addresses. Valley News (New Hampshire). Sept. 5, 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two remains possible across the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this evening. ...OH/TN Valley Region... Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest a low-amplitude short-wave trough extends across eastern IL into northwestern TN. Longer radar loops depict the remnants of a long-lived MCV advancing ahead of this feature across central IN. The southern influence of the short wave/MCV appears to be encouraging scattered robust convection along a frontal zone draped across eastern KY into middle TN. Locally damaging winds have been noted with some of this activity and wind should remain the primary concern, though marginally severe hail is also possible, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. While deep-layer shear is not particularly impressive, adequate flow persists along the frontal zone such that a severe risk will continue through much of the evening. Farther southwest along the front into north central TX, isolated severe thunderstorm has developed along the wind shift, just north of Dallas. Large hail is likely occurring with this storm that has supercell characteristics at times. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited very steep lapse rates through 5km, and 0-6km bulk shear was on the order of 40kt. Given the steep lapse rate environment, some risk for hail/wind will continue with any storms along the trailing boundary into this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two remains possible across the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this evening. ...OH/TN Valley Region... Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest a low-amplitude short-wave trough extends across eastern IL into northwestern TN. Longer radar loops depict the remnants of a long-lived MCV advancing ahead of this feature across central IN. The southern influence of the short wave/MCV appears to be encouraging scattered robust convection along a frontal zone draped across eastern KY into middle TN. Locally damaging winds have been noted with some of this activity and wind should remain the primary concern, though marginally severe hail is also possible, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. While deep-layer shear is not particularly impressive, adequate flow persists along the frontal zone such that a severe risk will continue through much of the evening. Farther southwest along the front into north central TX, isolated severe thunderstorm has developed along the wind shift, just north of Dallas. Large hail is likely occurring with this storm that has supercell characteristics at times. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited very steep lapse rates through 5km, and 0-6km bulk shear was on the order of 40kt. Given the steep lapse rate environment, some risk for hail/wind will continue with any storms along the trailing boundary into this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two remains possible across the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this evening. ...OH/TN Valley Region... Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest a low-amplitude short-wave trough extends across eastern IL into northwestern TN. Longer radar loops depict the remnants of a long-lived MCV advancing ahead of this feature across central IN. The southern influence of the short wave/MCV appears to be encouraging scattered robust convection along a frontal zone draped across eastern KY into middle TN. Locally damaging winds have been noted with some of this activity and wind should remain the primary concern, though marginally severe hail is also possible, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. While deep-layer shear is not particularly impressive, adequate flow persists along the frontal zone such that a severe risk will continue through much of the evening. Farther southwest along the front into north central TX, isolated severe thunderstorm has developed along the wind shift, just north of Dallas. Large hail is likely occurring with this storm that has supercell characteristics at times. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited very steep lapse rates through 5km, and 0-6km bulk shear was on the order of 40kt. Given the steep lapse rate environment, some risk for hail/wind will continue with any storms along the trailing boundary into this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two remains possible across the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this evening. ...OH/TN Valley Region... Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest a low-amplitude short-wave trough extends across eastern IL into northwestern TN. Longer radar loops depict the remnants of a long-lived MCV advancing ahead of this feature across central IN. The southern influence of the short wave/MCV appears to be encouraging scattered robust convection along a frontal zone draped across eastern KY into middle TN. Locally damaging winds have been noted with some of this activity and wind should remain the primary concern, though marginally severe hail is also possible, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. While deep-layer shear is not particularly impressive, adequate flow persists along the frontal zone such that a severe risk will continue through much of the evening. Farther southwest along the front into north central TX, isolated severe thunderstorm has developed along the wind shift, just north of Dallas. Large hail is likely occurring with this storm that has supercell characteristics at times. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited very steep lapse rates through 5km, and 0-6km bulk shear was on the order of 40kt. Given the steep lapse rate environment, some risk for hail/wind will continue with any storms along the trailing boundary into this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two remains possible across the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this evening. ...OH/TN Valley Region... Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest a low-amplitude short-wave trough extends across eastern IL into northwestern TN. Longer radar loops depict the remnants of a long-lived MCV advancing ahead of this feature across central IN. The southern influence of the short wave/MCV appears to be encouraging scattered robust convection along a frontal zone draped across eastern KY into middle TN. Locally damaging winds have been noted with some of this activity and wind should remain the primary concern, though marginally severe hail is also possible, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. While deep-layer shear is not particularly impressive, adequate flow persists along the frontal zone such that a severe risk will continue through much of the evening. Farther southwest along the front into north central TX, isolated severe thunderstorm has developed along the wind shift, just north of Dallas. Large hail is likely occurring with this storm that has supercell characteristics at times. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited very steep lapse rates through 5km, and 0-6km bulk shear was on the order of 40kt. Given the steep lapse rate environment, some risk for hail/wind will continue with any storms along the trailing boundary into this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two remains possible across the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this evening. ...OH/TN Valley Region... Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest a low-amplitude short-wave trough extends across eastern IL into northwestern TN. Longer radar loops depict the remnants of a long-lived MCV advancing ahead of this feature across central IN. The southern influence of the short wave/MCV appears to be encouraging scattered robust convection along a frontal zone draped across eastern KY into middle TN. Locally damaging winds have been noted with some of this activity and wind should remain the primary concern, though marginally severe hail is also possible, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. While deep-layer shear is not particularly impressive, adequate flow persists along the frontal zone such that a severe risk will continue through much of the evening. Farther southwest along the front into north central TX, isolated severe thunderstorm has developed along the wind shift, just north of Dallas. Large hail is likely occurring with this storm that has supercell characteristics at times. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited very steep lapse rates through 5km, and 0-6km bulk shear was on the order of 40kt. Given the steep lapse rate environment, some risk for hail/wind will continue with any storms along the trailing boundary into this portion of the southern Plains. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2025 Read more