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Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 433 WTPZ41 KNHC 061036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at 6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt for this advisory. Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt, and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids. Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear. Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week. Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 08:38:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 09:21:31 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 08:38:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 08:38:13 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060836 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at 6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt for this advisory. Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt, and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids. Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear. Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 029 FOPZ11 KNHC 060832 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 15N 140W 64 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 145W 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 20(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 79(87) 1(88) X(88) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 1(58) X(58) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) 2(73) X(73) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 2(34) X(34) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 052 WTPZ31 KNHC 060832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO HOLDS STEADY AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 139.7W ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 139.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Only minor fluctuations in strength are anticipated through Saturday, with gradual weakening expected to begin by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4 and WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO HOLDS STEADY AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 15.1, -139.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 930 WTPZ21 KNHC 060831 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 139.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 105SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 139.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 139.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 139.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER EAST PACIFIC BASIN HEADERS ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN HEADERS...AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC. $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more