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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the eastern Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii. Kiko is expected to cross into the central Pacific
basin late tonight.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop in the central portion of the
eastern Pacific, well south of the Baja California peninsula, during
the early part of next week. Some slow development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves generally westward around 10 to 15
mph over the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

MD 2041 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060320Z - 060515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may still occur with the stronger storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An MCS continues to propagate eastward along the TX/OK border, and will soon enter AR. This MCS has an earlier history of producing severe gusts, though none have been reported over the last couple of hours. However, recently intensified convection north of the Metroplex has produced measured severe gusts. These storms are tracking into an environment characterized by up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30+ kts of effective bulk shear, whose vectors are oriented roughly normal to the ongoing linear convection. The expectation is for organized storms, including bowing segments, to continue propagating to the east amid this CAPE/shear parameter space. However, nocturnal cooling, and the impacts of overturning convection, are contributing to low-level stability, so the persistence of effective downward momentum transport for damaging or severe gusts is in question. Nonetheless, at least a few more strong to possibly severe gusts are plausible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32669656 32719711 32879733 33119742 33409737 33509734 34329531 34629311 34339190 33819166 33339194 33019275 32879374 32739511 32659602 32669656 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HSS TO 25 SSW JKL TO 25 E JKL. WW 606 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060500Z. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC071-095-119-131-133-159-193-195-060500- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD HARLAN KNOTT LESLIE LETCHER MARTIN PERRY PIKE TNC067-060500- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK VAC105-060500- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 606 SEVERE TSTM AL KY MS TN VA 052145Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northwest Alabama Central and Eastern Kentucky Far Northeast Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee Extreme Western Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon from 445 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase along and ahead of a cold front progressing slowly southeastward through the region. Environmental conditions will support a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Some clustering is possible over time, with damaging gusts possible within these storm clusters as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 25 miles east southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE CSV TO 20 SW LOZ TO 30 SW HTS. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-131-133-147-153-159- 189-193-195-235-060440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE WHITLEY TNC013-025-067-129-151-060440- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE HANCOCK MORGAN SCOTT VAC105-060440- Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 02:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 03:21:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 02:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 02:39:30 GMT

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CSV TO 50 N MSL TO 30 S CKV TO 30 ENE BNA TO 60 SSE SDF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-013-025-045-051-053-057-063-065-071-079-095-109-115-119- 121-125-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-155-159-165-169-171-175-189- 193-195-197-199-203-207-231-235-237-060340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BELL BREATHITT CASEY CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FLOYD GARRARD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MARTIN MENIFEE METCALFE MONROE MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE Read more

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 906 WTPZ41 KNHC 060237 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Kiko has continued to intensify this afternoon and remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye is now surrounded by a large ring of very cold cloud tops, and the cyclone has taken on a structure more typical of annular hurricanes. A GMI microwave pass from 2224 UTC confirmed a symmetric inner-core with a complete ring of deep convection around the eye. The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are as high as 122 kt. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB are both T6.0/115 kt. Blending the higher objective estimates with the slightly lower subjective classifications yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone remains steered along the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii is helping to erode the western periphery of the ridge. This general motion with some increase in forward speed should persist through the weekend, with Kiko expected to cross into the central Pacific basin late tonight or early Saturday. The official forecast track is near the HCCA consensus and essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. However, a track slightly to the left of the official forecast would bring Kiko closer to the Big Island. Historically, cyclones approaching the Big Island from the east can slow and deflect northward as the island terrain disrupts the low-level flow and alters the steering currents. Kiko should remain a powerful hurricane for the next 12–24 hours while traversing 26–27 C waters with light north-northeasterly shear. Its annular structure may allow it to resist weakening longer than typical guidance, despite the surrounding dry environment in the mid- to upper levels. Beyond 48 hours, a combination of cooler waters, dry mid-level air, and strengthening west-southwesterly shear exceeding 30 kt will likely induce rapid weakening. The official intensity forecast holds Kiko above most of the available guidance into the weekend, then trends more toward the consensus aids later in the weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.9N 138.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 969 FOPZ11 KNHC 060235 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 75 4(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 140W 64 47 5(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 24(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 77(80) 4(84) X(84) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 4(51) X(51) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 11(71) X(71) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) X(30) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)