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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more