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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The Elevated area across the north-central High Plains was expanded south and eastward across Kansas with this update in alignment with recent trends in guidance. HREF combined probabilities indicate high likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions across this region. ERCs in this area are around the 80-90th percentile with below normal rainfall over the last 30 days across the region. This supports southward expansion of the Elevated into this region. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The Elevated area across the north-central High Plains was expanded south and eastward across Kansas with this update in alignment with recent trends in guidance. HREF combined probabilities indicate high likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions across this region. ERCs in this area are around the 80-90th percentile with below normal rainfall over the last 30 days across the region. This supports southward expansion of the Elevated into this region. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The Elevated area across the north-central High Plains was expanded south and eastward across Kansas with this update in alignment with recent trends in guidance. HREF combined probabilities indicate high likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions across this region. ERCs in this area are around the 80-90th percentile with below normal rainfall over the last 30 days across the region. This supports southward expansion of the Elevated into this region. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The Elevated area across the north-central High Plains was expanded south and eastward across Kansas with this update in alignment with recent trends in guidance. HREF combined probabilities indicate high likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions across this region. ERCs in this area are around the 80-90th percentile with below normal rainfall over the last 30 days across the region. This supports southward expansion of the Elevated into this region. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CTY TO 30 NNW GNV TO 25 ENE VLD TO 20 ENE AYS TO 40 WSW SAV. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-031-035-041-053-075-083-089-107-109-125- 161740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HERNANDO LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS UNION GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-229-299-305-161740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN PIERCE WARE WAYNE AMZ450-452-454-GMZ765-850-161740- Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CTY TO 30 NNW GNV TO 25 ENE VLD TO 20 ENE AYS TO 40 WSW SAV. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-031-035-041-053-075-083-089-107-109-125- 161740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HERNANDO LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS UNION GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-229-299-305-161740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN PIERCE WARE WAYNE AMZ450-452-454-GMZ765-850-161740- Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AYS TO 20 SSW FLO TO 10 SSW FAY TO 10 SW RDU. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-179-191-161740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC017-019-047-065-069-077-083-101-127-129-141-155-163-181-183- 185-191-195-161740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON SAMPSON VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC013-015-019-027-029-033-035-041-043-051-053-067-089-161740- Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AYS TO 20 SSW FLO TO 10 SSW FAY TO 10 SW RDU. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-179-191-161740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC017-019-047-065-069-077-083-101-127-129-141-155-163-181-183- 185-191-195-161740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON SAMPSON VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC013-015-019-027-029-033-035-041-043-051-053-067-089-161740- Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AYS TO 20 SSW FLO TO 10 SSW FAY TO 10 SW RDU. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-179-191-161740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC017-019-047-065-069-077-083-101-127-129-141-155-163-181-183- 185-191-195-161740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON SAMPSON VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC013-015-019-027-029-033-035-041-043-051-053-067-089-161740- Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AYS TO 20 SSW FLO TO 10 SSW FAY TO 10 SW RDU. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-179-191-161740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC017-019-047-065-069-077-083-101-127-129-141-155-163-181-183- 185-191-195-161740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON SAMPSON VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC013-015-019-027-029-033-035-041-043-051-053-067-089-161740- Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AYS TO 20 SSW FLO TO 10 SSW FAY TO 10 SW RDU. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-179-191-161740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC017-019-047-065-069-077-083-101-127-129-141-155-163-181-183- 185-191-195-161740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON SAMPSON VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC013-015-019-027-029-033-035-041-043-051-053-067-089-161740- Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AYS TO 20 SSW FLO TO 10 SSW FAY TO 10 SW RDU. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-179-191-161740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC017-019-047-065-069-077-083-101-127-129-141-155-163-181-183- 185-191-195-161740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON SAMPSON VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC013-015-019-027-029-033-035-041-043-051-053-067-089-161740- Read more

WW 51 TORNADO GA NC SC CW 161010Z - 161800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 51 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Southern North Carolina Central and Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 610 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will continue east into the Watch area this morning within a weakly unstable airmass with very strong flow aloft. A greater risk for wind damage along with a threat for a couple of tornadoes, will seemingly focus with organized bowing segments and perhaps a few embedded circulations within the band of thunderstorms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Fayetteville NC to 45 miles southwest of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 50... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKW TO 45 ENE CRW TO 35 E PKB TO 20 SE ZZV TO 30 NNE CLE. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-013-019-029-055-059-067-081-085-099-111-121-133-151-153- 155-157-161740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GEAUGA GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON LAKE MAHONING MONROE NOBLE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121- 125-129-161740- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FAYETTE FOREST GREENE INDIANA JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MERCER VENANGO Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKW TO 45 ENE CRW TO 35 E PKB TO 20 SE ZZV TO 30 NNE CLE. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-013-019-029-055-059-067-081-085-099-111-121-133-151-153- 155-157-161740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GEAUGA GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON LAKE MAHONING MONROE NOBLE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121- 125-129-161740- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FAYETTE FOREST GREENE INDIANA JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MERCER VENANGO Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0054 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0054 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more