Aggregator

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-139-242340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TEXAS TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195- 211-233-263-269-295-303-305-341-345-357-375-381-393-421-433-437- 483-242340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON KENT KING LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN STONEWALL SWISHER WHEELER Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-139-242340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TEXAS TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195- 211-233-263-269-295-303-305-341-345-357-375-381-393-421-433-437- 483-242340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON KENT KING LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN STONEWALL SWISHER WHEELER Read more

WW 167 TORNADO OK TX 242035Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to rapidly develop this afternoon into the early evening. Environmental shear and buoyancy combinations strongly favor intense, discrete supercells. Large to giant hail will be probable with any supercell. The tornado risk will likely focus for a few hours during the early evening near a residual outflow boundary draped over parts of the Watch area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Guymon OK to 60 miles southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more