Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread precipitation. ...Southwest... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this region. ...Florida... East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday, presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire weather concerns. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0170 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0170 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-242240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-043-079-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-219-227-279-317- 329-335-371-383-415-443-445-461-475-495-501-242240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD LAMB MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL PECOS REAGAN SCURRY TERRELL TERRY UPTON WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0169 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0169 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-139-242240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TEXAS TXC011-045-065-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-195- 211-233-263-269-295-303-305-341-345-357-375-381-393-421-433-437- 483-242240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON KENT KING LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN STONEWALL SWISHER WHEELER Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AUS TO 30 SW TPL TO 20 SSE TPL TO 45 NNW CLL TO 50 SSE CRS TO 45 SE CRS TO 20 SSW TYR. ..HALBERT..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-041-051-073-185-225-287-289-313-331-347-373-395-405- 407-455-471-491-242240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE GRIMES HOUSTON LEE LEON MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0543 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl and sern TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241933Z - 242130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to organize, with signs of increasing potential to produce strong to severe gusts while propagating southeastward toward the mid/upper Texas coastal plain through 5-7 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, and southeasterly updraft inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air (characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg), have maintained vigorous thunderstorm development. Activity has undergone notable intensification and increasing organization, and it appears that a meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation is becoming better-defined near the Waco vicinity, where a couple of 50+ kt surface gusts have recently been observed. Despite continued gradual warming around 700 mb, and some suggestion that the larger-scale forcing for ascent may weaken, the boundary-layer ahead of the storms remains potentially supportive of further intensification of the convective system, southeastward toward the mid/upper Texas coastal plain into early evening. Deep-layer mean flow and shear remain generally modest, as does the strength of the surface cold pool (as of 19Z observational data). However, with further strengthening of the mesoscale vortex and west-northwesterly rear inflow, there remains potential for a continued increase in risk for strong to severe gusts during the next few hours. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31209864 31229751 31609697 31689612 32209488 30849454 30079633 30289793 30759889 31209864 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0541 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 241833Z - 242100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected by 21-23z, capable of all hazard (tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind). A Tornado Watch will be be needed later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cu development has steadily increased across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. MLCIN eroding with daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid 70s. Supercell development is expected along the surface dryline and near Cap Rock between 21-23z. With additional daytime heating, a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg will be in place across much of the TX/OK Panhandles. Shear profiles are sufficient, with deep layer shear around 30-35 kts. This will support robust scattered discrete supercell development, with potential for very large hail (some 2-3+") initially, given steep low to mid-lapse rates. A favorable more favorable corridor for tornadoes is possible from areas near Amarillo to the Cap Rock northeastward to the OK line. Within this region, backed surface flow will support larger low-level curvature of hodographs. This in combination with enhanced surface vorticity along the differential heating boundary and near the dryline may result in a tornado or two towards the late afternoon/evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed this afternoon to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34800260 35700265 36470279 36760277 36940260 37020165 36970092 36930046 36900021 36790004 36150002 35830005 35420001 35160000 34830002 34490003 33900013 33620048 33530095 33450143 33440191 33480222 33520249 33580259 33660259 34800260 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0542 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WRN TX AND ADJACENT SERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn TX and adjacent sern NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241837Z - 242100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appears increasingly probable by 4-6 PM CDT, if not earlier. This may include rapidly intensifying supercells capable of producing large, potentially damaging hail, and localized severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...In the presence of light southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, convergence within modest surface troughing, along a sharpening dryline, remains generally weak. However, initial attempts at deep convective development are ongoing near the higher terrain around Fort Stockton, where daytime heating is contributing to weakening low/mid-level inhibition. The seasonably moist boundary layer is becoming characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, with a significant fraction extending through the mid and upper troposphere. With additional insolation, various model output indicates that the initiation of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will become increasingly probable by/through the 21-23Z time frame, as far north as a remnant outflow boundary to the southwest of the Lubbock vicinity. Although the low to mid-level flow is weak, shear beneath 50-70 kt+ kt flow in the 300-250 mb layer, veering from west-southwesterly to westerly in the wake of a mid/upper wave progressing to the east of the Rockies, will be more than sufficient for supercells. Some of these may become capable of producing large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33600244 32970193 32440174 32120173 30970188 30300195 29700212 28730270 28810362 29420378 30270335 31220309 32240331 33290276 33600244 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0167 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0166 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0166 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of 15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543 for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Read more