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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more