Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

All open burning and fireworks have been suspended in Keene due to persistent drought, forecasted winds and fire danger at critical levels. Some nearby communities like Hinsdale, Richmond, Roxbury, Stoddard and Winchester have also adopted similar burn bans as drought conditions have lingered since last fall, leaving the ground and vegetation exceedingly dry. A major brush fire that broke out in Winchester on Tuesday, April 29, quickly blew into a four-alarm emergency and was fought by almost 100 firefighters from more than 25 regional agencies. The blaze has charred more than 40 acres. My Keene Now (N.H.), April 30, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z Offshore flow within a dry, post-frontal air mass will continue across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Fuels remain particularly dry across a corridor from the Delmarva Peninsula to Connecticut where rainfall was minimized associated with yesterday's cold front. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping 30 percent this afternoon over dry fuels supported addition Elevated highlights. Otherwise, forecast for West Texas and Florida remains on track (see below), with elevated fire weather conditions expected today. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more