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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

MD 0617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...North TX into far southeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301407Z - 301600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A slow-moving bow will continue to move east across the Red River vicinity of southeast OK and northeast TX the next few hours. Sporadic strong gusts may occur in the short term. DISCUSSION...An organized bow extending from south-central OK into north TX this morning will continue to slowly shift east the remainder of the morning. Some occasional intensification with embedded cells, especially on the southern portions of the bow, as been noted over the past hour. A gust to 47 kt was most recently measured in Wise County TX. Downstream from this activity, upper 60s F dewpoints are in place and some filtered heating into far northeast TX is likely to occur, through much of the area will be cloudy with limited heating the next few hours. Nevertheless, 12z RAOB from FWD indicated very steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km above an EML around 700 mb, supporting modest MLCAPE. While severe potential should remain somewhat limited in the short term, a gradual increase in severe potential is expected into midday. Favorable vertical shear will support rotating cells within the line and perhaps developing ahead of the line later today. A new watch will likely be needed by midday, through timing is a bit uncertain given ongoing convection and a slowly destabilizing downstream airmass. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33109828 33789723 34219658 34409574 34459510 34399474 34209459 33349460 32679526 32389609 32219721 32349776 32609813 33109828 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0197 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more