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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SPS TO 35 S SPS TO 40 ESE SPS TO 30 WSW ADM TO 25 NW ADM TO 10 S OKC. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-127- 301340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-237-277-337-363-429-497-503-301340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SPS TO 35 S SPS TO 40 ESE SPS TO 30 WSW ADM TO 25 NW ADM TO 10 S OKC. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-127- 301340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-237-277-337-363-429-497-503-301340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SPS TO 35 S SPS TO 40 ESE SPS TO 30 WSW ADM TO 25 NW ADM TO 10 S OKC. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-127- 301340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-237-277-337-363-429-497-503-301340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SPS TO 35 S SPS TO 40 ESE SPS TO 30 WSW ADM TO 25 NW ADM TO 10 S OKC. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-127- 301340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-237-277-337-363-429-497-503-301340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SPS TO 35 S SPS TO 40 ESE SPS TO 30 WSW ADM TO 25 NW ADM TO 10 S OKC. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-127- 301340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-237-277-337-363-429-497-503-301340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SPS TO 35 S SPS TO 40 ESE SPS TO 30 WSW ADM TO 25 NW ADM TO 10 S OKC. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-127- 301340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-237-277-337-363-429-497-503-301340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 196 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 300555Z - 301300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central Oklahoma Northwest and North-Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning from 1255 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist throughout the night in the vicinity of an outflow boundary that extends across the region. Hail will be the primary risk with this more cellular development. There is also some potential for the storms in west TX to evolve into an organized line segment that could progress across the region later. Damaging gusts would be the primary risk with this more linear activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Altus OK to 30 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 194...WW 195... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0616 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195...196... FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...northwest Texas into the Red River Valley and across southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...196... Valid 300924Z - 301130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195, 196 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely over parts of northwest into northern Texas, including the Red River Valley and into far southern Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...The 850 theta-e advection regime persists early this morning across TX and OK, fueling episodic MCSs. The primary convective system currently extends from far southwest OK southward into northwest TX, with strong reflectivity and respectable echo tops. Severe gusts are likely occurring with this line, as seen in recent Knox City observation with 69 mph reported. This line of storms is straddling the east-west stationary front, and extra lift near this boundary may support strengthening as it moves eastward this morning. Isolated storms well north of the boundary into southern OK have produced gusts in excess of 50 kt as well, despite the more isolated nature. ..Jewell.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32190032 32889989 33569959 34019951 34579945 34859940 35279587 35179549 34669528 33969552 33509635 32639841 32190032 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CDS TO 50 SE CDS TO 50 SSW LTS TO 25 SSW LTS TO 5 NNW LTS TO 10 SW CSM. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-075-085-095-099- 123-127-137-141-301140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-147-181-237-275-277-337-363-429-485-487-497- 503-301140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK KNOX LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CDS TO 50 SE CDS TO 50 SSW LTS TO 25 SSW LTS TO 5 NNW LTS TO 10 SW CSM. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-075-085-095-099- 123-127-137-141-301140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-147-181-237-275-277-337-363-429-485-487-497- 503-301140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK KNOX LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-031-033-049-055-057-065-067-069-075-085- 095-099-123-127-137-141-300940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-147-155-181-197-237-275-277-337-363-429-485- 487-497-503-300940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FANNIN FOARD GRAYSON HARDEMAN JACK KNOX LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WICHITA Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-031-033-049-055-057-065-067-069-075-085- 095-099-123-127-137-141-300940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-147-155-181-197-237-275-277-337-363-429-485- 487-497-503-300940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FANNIN FOARD GRAYSON HARDEMAN JACK KNOX LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WICHITA Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-300940- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-059-079-101-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-219- 227-253-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-415-417-431-433-441- 445-447-495-501-300940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD JONES KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-300940- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-059-079-101-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-219- 227-253-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-415-417-431-433-441- 445-447-495-501-300940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD JONES KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-300940- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-059-079-101-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-219- 227-253-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-415-417-431-433-441- 445-447-495-501-300940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD JONES KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-300940- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-059-079-101-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-219- 227-253-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-415-417-431-433-441- 445-447-495-501-300940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD JONES KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON Read more