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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

MD 0619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX INTO NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern TX into northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301717Z - 301915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across portions of central and eastern Texas early this afternoon. Convective initiation expected in the next 1-2 hours with all severe hazards possible. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted across the discussion area to the southeast of a slowly southeastward progressing line/MCS across North TX. Scattered cloudiness has allowed for stronger heating, with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s F at midday. A very moist airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F resides beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2500 J/kg. This should support robust updrafts. Supercell vertical wind profiles and effective shear values greater than 35 kt will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards, including a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong), damaging gusts, and isolated hail. Supercells are expected ahead of the oozing line of convection through the afternoon. With time, linear convection may also intensify and surge east. A tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour or so for parts of the discussion area. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31769817 32139747 32329582 33009362 32869316 32529311 32089339 31609404 30949523 30519611 30599725 30709781 30919825 31239836 31769817 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more

WW 197 TORNADO AR OK TX 301450Z - 302200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over southern Oklahoma and north Texas will track eastward today across the watch area. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible along the line along with brief tornadoes. Other severe storms capable of tornadoes may form ahead of the line by early afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Poteau OK to 85 miles south of Paris TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0198 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0198 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0618 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 197... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast OK into northwest AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 197... Valid 301621Z - 301745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues. SUMMARY...A line of storms will move east/northeast into portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas over the next few hours. Sporadic strong to severe gusts may accompany this activity. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance or extension of WW 197. DISCUSSION...A mature MCS is currently shifting east across eastern OK and north TX late this morning. Individual bowing segments within the broader line of storms may lift more northeast with time into portions of northeast OK and northwest AR through early afternoon. Filtered heating is occurring across northern AR where thinner cloud cover is noted. Generally low 60s F dewpoints are supporting modest instability, and further destabilization will likely remain limited given somewhat poor lapse rates with northward extent. Nevertheless, organized convection moving into this environment will continue to pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts, though a brief spin-up also could occur with any line-embedded mesovortex that develops. Tornado Watch 197 may be extended northward, or a new watch could be issued depending on convective trends. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 35589576 36169533 36209525 36479462 36489365 36489282 36399254 35829245 35309256 35219275 35199302 35219430 35289530 35309566 35399576 35589576 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas... A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary. Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing large hail, and locally strong gusts. Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms, and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this area should diminish through the evening. ...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas... Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night, in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front. Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more