SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the
Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas.
Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and hail.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to
dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength
feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the
end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches
the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become
highly amplified and progressive into the weekend.
At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great
Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday
morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward
to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region.
...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions
of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the
aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation
will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the
region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This,
combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms,
but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the
front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes.
From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more
unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial
low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However,
widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area
westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just
north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and
progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely
influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through
the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a
broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further
refinement of the area likely in later outlooks.
..Goss.. 04/30/2025
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