Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more