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MD 0625 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 199... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 199... Valid 302328Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues. SUMMARY...An eastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts and perhaps an embedded mesovortex tornado or two into this evening. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is tracking eastward across central AR at around 30 kt. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear oriented oblique to the gust front, warm/moist inflow, and a gradually strengthening low-level jet, this MCS should maintain its current intensity with eastward extent across the remainder of AR and perhaps into far western TN and northwestern MS. The primary concern will be severe wind gusts (especially with any bowing segments), though an embedded mesovortex tornado or two cannot be ruled out (aided by around 200 m2/s2 effective SRH) -- especially in the near-term. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch. ..Weinman/Smith.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33609228 34919208 35719195 35999162 36119111 36109035 35918980 35238970 33619024 33209085 33259182 33609228 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0626 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 200... FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0626 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Missouri Region Concerning...Tornado Watch 200... Valid 302330Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues. SUMMARY...Some tornado threat exists with small supercells across southeast Missouri region this evening. DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across the Ozarks. This feature appears partly responsible for maintaining the northern end of a larger MCS that is propagating across southern MO. Low-level warm advection is focused into this region and scattered small supercells have developed ahead of the primary MCS precip shield from Texas County to Madison County. This activity is lifting northeast toward the southwestern portions of ww200. Latest radar data supports this with with several updrafts exhibiting rotation and marginally severe hail. A brief weak tornado threat is possible with these supercells as they advance downstream. ..Darrow.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37669205 38429075 38008949 37059009 36769164 37669205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0624 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Parts of south Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302231Z - 010000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and wind risk will persist for another couple hours. Current thinking is that the overall severe risk will remain too isolated for a watch. DISCUSSION...An isolated/discrete supercell has developed within a warm, moist, and uncapped environment across south TX. Given weak forcing for ascent, overall storm coverage is expected to remain isolated. However, around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and an elongated/straight hodograph (sampled by EWX VWP) will continue to support an isolated supercell or two -- capable of producing severe hail and locally damaging gusts. This threat should persist for another couple hours, before the boundary layer nocturnally stabilizes. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not expected. ..Weinman/Smith.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28169854 28399911 28809920 29279902 29679854 29929798 29879753 29299736 28419790 28169854 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ELD TO 15 SSE FLP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625 ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-023-025-041-043-045-053-063-067-069-079-085-095- 117-119-137-145-147-010040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEBURNE CLEVELAND DESHA DREW FAULKNER GRANT INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE PRAIRIE PULASKI STONE WHITE WOODRUFF THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 199 TORNADO AR 302025Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Arkansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of strong/severe thunderstorms over western Arkansas will progress eastward through the late afternoon and evening. Locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with this activity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Russellville AR to 40 miles west southwest of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ACT TO 35 NW TYR. ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-010040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-010040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313- 331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 198 TORNADO AR LA TX 301805Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana East Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop across the watch area through the afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear and instability will pose a risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Waco TX to 50 miles east of Shreveport LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 30 22:02:07 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more