Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An upper-level short wave currently sliding southeastward along the California coast will pivot into the Desert Southwest under a large, amplified ridge that will encompass much of the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday. This subtle trough along with residual moisture stretched along a diffuse frontal boundary should bring some isolated convection to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible given marginal mid-level moisture and weak forcing. Fuels/fuel dryness will be limiting factor in ignition efficiency, particularly north of I-40 corridor, where additional light precipitation is expected Thursday (Day 2) prior to this event. Conversely, a sweeping cold front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. mitigating fire weather concerns including the Mid-Atlantic region, reaching Florida by Day 5/Sunday. A deepening upper-level trough is expected to move into the Western U.S. in the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the focus of the next appreciable fire weather threat impacting the Southwest. Additional mid-level Pacific moisture streaming into the region could bring a more widespread rain and higher elevation snow event to the higher terrain across the Four Corners/Intermountain West which could confine fire weather concerns to southern Arizona/New Mexico for early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates development of a cut off low over the Southwest that should promote a cooler, more moist pattern for the region for Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, limiting confidence in including Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302007Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and potentially marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest storms. A watch is not likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) is in place in the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. On the southern fringe of a belt of stronger mid-level flow, effective shear is a modest 25-30 kts. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will promote a few stronger to marginally severe storms. Low-level lapse rates are steep and damaging winds are the primary threat. Mid-level lapse rates (sampled by this mornings soundings) are modest. Small to perhaps isolated, marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK... LAT...LON 37518517 38178451 38358349 38128257 37748218 37448242 36718337 36558413 36898486 37518517 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0622 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 197... FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...western and central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 197... Valid 301953Z - 302200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues. SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms will continue eastward the next several hours. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two remain possible. A downstream watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The line of convection across western AR will continue to shift east at around 35 kt the next few hours. downstream, filtered heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid 80s amid low/mid 60s F dewpoints. Midlevel lapse rates remain modest, but the moist environment is fostering modest instability amid a moderately sheared environment. Given stronger heating ahead of the line, low-level lapse rates have steepened considerable, and this may foster a continued risk for damaging gusts into early evening. A new watch downstream from Tornado Watch 197 will likely be needed in the next hour. ..Leitman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 35659348 35719254 35479186 35119155 34569157 33499197 33099222 33039257 33019310 33109398 33459431 34149466 35329435 35659348 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0621 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...East-central Missouri into southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301940Z - 302145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms are possible along an outflow boundary. All severe hazards would be possible. A watch is uncertain in the short term, but issuance is possible this afternoon depending on observational trends. DISCUSSION...Airmass modification after earlier convection has been evident over the past couple of hours in central Missouri and southern Illinois. The primary outflow boundary is situated just south of St. Louis and extends into far southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Dewpoints south of the boundary have increased to upper 60s F except for parts of southeastern Missouri which has only recovered into the low 60s F. North of the outflow boundary, stable billow clouds remain. However, very near the boundary temperatures and dewpoints have increased and at least some MLCIN has been removed and convection has begun to slowly deepen. With 40 kts of effective shear (more favorably oriented across the boundary on its western half), supercells would be expected if storms develop. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible. A tornado or two would also be possible for storms interacting with the more backed easterly/southeasterly winds on the cooler side of the boundary. Being in the wake of an earlier MCV, forcing for ascent will be nebulous and will depend on heating/destabilization along the outflow. Trends will continue to be monitored. A watch is possible this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38359140 38649151 39179104 39229055 38878972 38828868 38808815 38618795 38168806 37928814 37538862 37558986 38359140 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more