Aggregator

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GLH TO 45 SE BVX. ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-095-010240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GLH TO 45 SE BVX. ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-095-010240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 199 TORNADO AR 302025Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Arkansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of strong/severe thunderstorms over western Arkansas will progress eastward through the late afternoon and evening. Locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with this activity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Russellville AR to 40 miles west southwest of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SDF TO 35 E SLO TO 20 N VIH. ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083- 101-117-119-121-135-139-159-163-173-010240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY INC005-013-021-031-055-071-079-093-105-119-153-167-010240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLAY DECATUR GREENE JACKSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OWEN SULLIVAN VIGO Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SDF TO 35 E SLO TO 20 N VIH. ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083- 101-117-119-121-135-139-159-163-173-010240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY INC005-013-021-031-055-071-079-093-105-119-153-167-010240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLAY DECATUR GREENE JACKSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OWEN SULLIVAN VIGO Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SDF TO 35 E SLO TO 20 N VIH. ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083- 101-117-119-121-135-139-159-163-173-010240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY INC005-013-021-031-055-071-079-093-105-119-153-167-010240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLAY DECATUR GREENE JACKSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OWEN SULLIVAN VIGO Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SDF TO 35 E SLO TO 20 N VIH. ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083- 101-117-119-121-135-139-159-163-173-010240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY INC005-013-021-031-055-071-079-093-105-119-153-167-010240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLAY DECATUR GREENE JACKSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OWEN SULLIVAN VIGO Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SDF TO 35 E SLO TO 20 N VIH. ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083- 101-117-119-121-135-139-159-163-173-010240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY INC005-013-021-031-055-071-079-093-105-119-153-167-010240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLAY DECATUR GREENE JACKSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OWEN SULLIVAN VIGO Read more

WW 200 TORNADO IL IN MO 302140Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Illinois Central and Southern Indiana East-Central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify late this afternoon into the evening in the vicinity of a west to east oriented boundary. A few supercells are expected and a couple of tornadoes are possible. Severe gusts and large hail are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Saint Louis MO to 25 miles east of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198...WW 199... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22020. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more