Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

MD 1648 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 505...508... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0557 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 505...508... Valid 112257Z - 120100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 505, 508 continues. SUMMARY...An organized cluster of storms likely will continue to pose a risk for strong to severe surface gusts, and perhaps an additional brief tornado or two, across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the next couple of hours, reaching the Greater Milwaukee into portions of the Greater Chicago metro areas by 8 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...The evolving convective system has become better organized over the past couple of hours, with at least one developing meso-beta scale cyclonic vortex (now near Dubuque IA) becoming increasingly prominent. The apex of the southward trailing bow echo structure in radar reflectivities is propagating east-northeastward around 45 kt, and, at this continued motion, will reach the southwestern shores of Lake Michigan near the Greater Milwaukee area by 01Z. In the presence of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly mean ambient flow, moderately strong easterly updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg seems likely to maintain current convective intensities at least to the the southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. As long as this continues, westerly rear inflow probably will remain sufficiently strong to contribute to strong to severe surface gusts in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 43208980 43548869 43568796 43178750 42218756 41788778 41678926 41768977 42488951 42969002 43208980 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MMO TO 20 ENE JVL TO 20 ENE MSN. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-031-037-043-063-089-093-097-099-103-111-197-120140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY WILL WIC055-059-079-101-127-133-120140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WAUKESHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1649 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... FOR WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...west central through northeastern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507... Valid 112347Z - 120045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507 continues. SUMMARY...A further increase in thunderstorm development and intensity still appears possible through 8-10 PM CDT, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts. It is not clear that an additional severe weather watch will be needed, but Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507 probably will be maintained until current 10 PM CDT scheduled expiration. DISCUSSION...The most vigorous thunderstorm development, to this point, has remained well to the north of the region, associated with forcing for ascent with a lead perturbation within larger-scale weak mid-level troughing accelerating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley. While one coincident surface wave, along a low-level baroclinic zone strengthened by differential surface heating, migrates into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois, modestly deep surface troughing lags to the southwest and is being overtaken by an initial weak cold front across northwestern Missouri into northeastern Kansas. Within this surface troughing, a seasonably warm and moist boundary-layer remains characterized by sizable CAPE in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, as a trailing mid-level perturbation digs into the lower Missouri Valley. Although deep-layer shear becomes more modest to the south/southwest of the Iowa/Missouri state border, it is still possible that increasing forcing for ascent could support further upscale growth of ongoing convective development now northwest of Chillicothe MO into western portions of the Greater Kansas City vicinity. As this occurs and spreads eastward during the next few hours, gradual organization is possible, perhaps accompanied by at least some increase in potential for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 39849419 40619282 39919159 38409384 38849502 39849419 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW OJC TO 30 WNW IRK. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-149-120140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN PIKE KSC121-120140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIAMI MOC001-007-019-033-037-041-053-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117- 121-127-137-159-163-173-175-177-195-205-211-120140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDRAIN BOONE CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HOWARD JACKSON Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BRL TO 20 E MLI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-067-071-073-109-131-155-187-120100- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-120100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-197-199-120100- MO Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BRL TO 20 E MLI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-067-071-073-109-131-155-187-120100- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-120100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-197-199-120100- MO Read more