Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through low-amplitude upper troughing over the northern tier of the U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. At the surface, a cold front is expected to develop south/southeast across portions of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Days 4-5/Tue-Wed. Given a moist and unstable airmass ahead of this feature, some severe potential is possible from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. However, medium range guidance shows large spread in the location and timing of the front and any associated convection, resulting in low predictability. Later in the period, strong upper ridging will develop over the Southeast. Some severe potential could continue eastward across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic around Days 5-6/Wed-Thu as the aforementioned cold front stalls in response to the building Southeast ridge. However, large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow will remain modest, and any severe potential would likely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at this time scale. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Discussion... Generally low-amplitude west/northwest flow will spread across the northern tier of the U.S. on Monday, confining any enhanced deep-layer flow to the north-central states. Elsewhere, a weak deep-layer flow regime will prevail within modest upper ridging across the Southeast and West. A weak upper low may persist over the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass with pockets of moderate instability will support scattered convection from the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. However, lack of forcing and weak deep-layer flow will limit severe potential across much of the country. The exception may be across parts of the northern Plains. A surface low is forecast to develop across the northern High Plains in response to weak height falls during the evening/overnight. A cold front will develop south across parts of the Dakotas while a surface trough extends south across the northern High Plains. These boundaries could become a focus for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/evening. Steep lapse rates, moderate instability and sufficient shear should support a few organized cells capable of producing strong/severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail. ..Leitman.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Discussion... Generally low-amplitude west/northwest flow will spread across the northern tier of the U.S. on Monday, confining any enhanced deep-layer flow to the north-central states. Elsewhere, a weak deep-layer flow regime will prevail within modest upper ridging across the Southeast and West. A weak upper low may persist over the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass with pockets of moderate instability will support scattered convection from the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. However, lack of forcing and weak deep-layer flow will limit severe potential across much of the country. The exception may be across parts of the northern Plains. A surface low is forecast to develop across the northern High Plains in response to weak height falls during the evening/overnight. A cold front will develop south across parts of the Dakotas while a surface trough extends south across the northern High Plains. These boundaries could become a focus for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/evening. Steep lapse rates, moderate instability and sufficient shear should support a few organized cells capable of producing strong/severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail. ..Leitman.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Discussion... Generally low-amplitude west/northwest flow will spread across the northern tier of the U.S. on Monday, confining any enhanced deep-layer flow to the north-central states. Elsewhere, a weak deep-layer flow regime will prevail within modest upper ridging across the Southeast and West. A weak upper low may persist over the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass with pockets of moderate instability will support scattered convection from the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. However, lack of forcing and weak deep-layer flow will limit severe potential across much of the country. The exception may be across parts of the northern Plains. A surface low is forecast to develop across the northern High Plains in response to weak height falls during the evening/overnight. A cold front will develop south across parts of the Dakotas while a surface trough extends south across the northern High Plains. These boundaries could become a focus for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/evening. Steep lapse rates, moderate instability and sufficient shear should support a few organized cells capable of producing strong/severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail. ..Leitman.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Discussion... Generally low-amplitude west/northwest flow will spread across the northern tier of the U.S. on Monday, confining any enhanced deep-layer flow to the north-central states. Elsewhere, a weak deep-layer flow regime will prevail within modest upper ridging across the Southeast and West. A weak upper low may persist over the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass with pockets of moderate instability will support scattered convection from the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. However, lack of forcing and weak deep-layer flow will limit severe potential across much of the country. The exception may be across parts of the northern Plains. A surface low is forecast to develop across the northern High Plains in response to weak height falls during the evening/overnight. A cold front will develop south across parts of the Dakotas while a surface trough extends south across the northern High Plains. These boundaries could become a focus for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/evening. Steep lapse rates, moderate instability and sufficient shear should support a few organized cells capable of producing strong/severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail. ..Leitman.. 07/12/2025 Read more

MD 1653 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Texas Panhandle and adjacent east central New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510... Valid 120446Z - 120645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510 continues. SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorm development, and the risk for strong to severe surface gusts, probably will begin to wane as activity spreads southeastward through 1-2 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Stronger convection within an evolving cluster has been generally maintaining intensity over the past hour or two, based on observational data, but it has been becoming increasingly displaced to the cool side of south-southeastward surging convective outflow. This has coincided with strengthening surface pressure rises (including up to 4-5 mb 2-hourly in 04Z observations at Dalhart and Tucumcari), and an increase in strong to severe surface gusts. However, this probably will begin to diminish over the next couple of hours, as convection begin to wane in the presence of increasing inhibition, associated with boundary-layer cooling, and weakening forcing for ascent. ..Kerr.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34950253 35360190 35890140 34920049 33700177 34140328 34510338 34800299 34950253 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA INTO NEW YORK...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from eastern Oklahoma into southern Missouri. ...Discussion... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will envelop the northern Plains to the Northeast as an upper shortwave trough meanders east while de-amplifying on Sunday. Over the southern Plains, a weak upper low may stall over the region. A seasonally very moist boundary layer will extend across much of the southern Plains to the Midwest and into the Eastern Seaboard, providing areas of moderate instability. However, stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the north, near the international border, limiting overlap of instability with wind profiles sufficient of organized severe convection. Furthermore, heavy rain across parts of the southern Plains is forecast for Saturday/Day 1. This may dampen stronger heating and result in poor lapse rates, limiting overall severe potential. While some gusty winds are possible across the broad moist warm sector from the southern Rockies into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity, weak deep-layer flow and a lack of any discernible mechanisms to focus/organize thunderstorm activity should limit overall severe potential and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for much of the region. The exception is across portions of OK into southern MO on the eastern periphery of the weak upper low and a possible MCV from convection in the Day 1/Saturday period. This feature may provide some local focus/enhancement to shear and a couple of strong to severe storms producing gusty winds will be possible. Some greater potential for strong wind gusts still appears possible across parts of the VA into NY. Stronger heating will support steepened low-level lapse rates within the very moist and unstable airmass, and sporadic wet microbursts may occur. Some modestly enhanced westerly flow across PA/NY may aid in development of propagating clusters/outflows as well, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) remains largely unchanged from the prior Day 3 outlook. ..Leitman.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA INTO NEW YORK...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from eastern Oklahoma into southern Missouri. ...Discussion... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will envelop the northern Plains to the Northeast as an upper shortwave trough meanders east while de-amplifying on Sunday. Over the southern Plains, a weak upper low may stall over the region. A seasonally very moist boundary layer will extend across much of the southern Plains to the Midwest and into the Eastern Seaboard, providing areas of moderate instability. However, stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the north, near the international border, limiting overlap of instability with wind profiles sufficient of organized severe convection. Furthermore, heavy rain across parts of the southern Plains is forecast for Saturday/Day 1. This may dampen stronger heating and result in poor lapse rates, limiting overall severe potential. While some gusty winds are possible across the broad moist warm sector from the southern Rockies into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity, weak deep-layer flow and a lack of any discernible mechanisms to focus/organize thunderstorm activity should limit overall severe potential and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for much of the region. The exception is across portions of OK into southern MO on the eastern periphery of the weak upper low and a possible MCV from convection in the Day 1/Saturday period. This feature may provide some local focus/enhancement to shear and a couple of strong to severe storms producing gusty winds will be possible. Some greater potential for strong wind gusts still appears possible across parts of the VA into NY. Stronger heating will support steepened low-level lapse rates within the very moist and unstable airmass, and sporadic wet microbursts may occur. Some modestly enhanced westerly flow across PA/NY may aid in development of propagating clusters/outflows as well, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) remains largely unchanged from the prior Day 3 outlook. ..Leitman.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA INTO NEW YORK...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from eastern Oklahoma into southern Missouri. ...Discussion... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will envelop the northern Plains to the Northeast as an upper shortwave trough meanders east while de-amplifying on Sunday. Over the southern Plains, a weak upper low may stall over the region. A seasonally very moist boundary layer will extend across much of the southern Plains to the Midwest and into the Eastern Seaboard, providing areas of moderate instability. However, stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the north, near the international border, limiting overlap of instability with wind profiles sufficient of organized severe convection. Furthermore, heavy rain across parts of the southern Plains is forecast for Saturday/Day 1. This may dampen stronger heating and result in poor lapse rates, limiting overall severe potential. While some gusty winds are possible across the broad moist warm sector from the southern Rockies into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity, weak deep-layer flow and a lack of any discernible mechanisms to focus/organize thunderstorm activity should limit overall severe potential and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for much of the region. The exception is across portions of OK into southern MO on the eastern periphery of the weak upper low and a possible MCV from convection in the Day 1/Saturday period. This feature may provide some local focus/enhancement to shear and a couple of strong to severe storms producing gusty winds will be possible. Some greater potential for strong wind gusts still appears possible across parts of the VA into NY. Stronger heating will support steepened low-level lapse rates within the very moist and unstable airmass, and sporadic wet microbursts may occur. Some modestly enhanced westerly flow across PA/NY may aid in development of propagating clusters/outflows as well, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) remains largely unchanged from the prior Day 3 outlook. ..Leitman.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are most probable across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through dusk. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough centered on the MB/ON to Dakotas/MN borders will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects across northwest ON and the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of this feature, a convectively aided shortwave impulse should dampen as it accelerates north-northeast through the central Great Lakes into northeast ON by early afternoon. Belts of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies will be confined to WI/MI. Ongoing convection from Lake MI to MO is expected to largely decay this morning. Some guidance suggests reinvigoration may occur in the late morning across northern Lower into eastern Upper MI as the lead shortwave impulse passes. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower MI towards the Wabash/Lower OH Valleys. Ample buoyancy will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through much of the kinematic profile will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after dusk in parts of OH/KY. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front pushing east across northern/eastern WI and upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...OK/TX/NM/CO... Multiple areas of ongoing thunderstorms from southern NE to the TX Panhandle are expected to persist and shift south-southeastward this morning. Differential diabatic heating in vicinity of remnant MCVs/outflows and orographic forcing for ascent will be the primary drivers of storm development today. Convection across OK/TX will probably persist and gradually intensify in tandem with downstream boundary-layer heating. Within predominately weak deep-layer shear, slow-moving and mainly disorganized updrafts will dominate. Sporadic strong to marginal severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible in a mix of cells/clusters. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain of NM/CO should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern NM. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to the southern Piedmont... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for erratic wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are most probable across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through dusk. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough centered on the MB/ON to Dakotas/MN borders will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects across northwest ON and the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of this feature, a convectively aided shortwave impulse should dampen as it accelerates north-northeast through the central Great Lakes into northeast ON by early afternoon. Belts of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies will be confined to WI/MI. Ongoing convection from Lake MI to MO is expected to largely decay this morning. Some guidance suggests reinvigoration may occur in the late morning across northern Lower into eastern Upper MI as the lead shortwave impulse passes. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower MI towards the Wabash/Lower OH Valleys. Ample buoyancy will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through much of the kinematic profile will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after dusk in parts of OH/KY. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front pushing east across northern/eastern WI and upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...OK/TX/NM/CO... Multiple areas of ongoing thunderstorms from southern NE to the TX Panhandle are expected to persist and shift south-southeastward this morning. Differential diabatic heating in vicinity of remnant MCVs/outflows and orographic forcing for ascent will be the primary drivers of storm development today. Convection across OK/TX will probably persist and gradually intensify in tandem with downstream boundary-layer heating. Within predominately weak deep-layer shear, slow-moving and mainly disorganized updrafts will dominate. Sporadic strong to marginal severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible in a mix of cells/clusters. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain of NM/CO should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern NM. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to the southern Piedmont... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for erratic wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are most probable across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through dusk. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough centered on the MB/ON to Dakotas/MN borders will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects across northwest ON and the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of this feature, a convectively aided shortwave impulse should dampen as it accelerates north-northeast through the central Great Lakes into northeast ON by early afternoon. Belts of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies will be confined to WI/MI. Ongoing convection from Lake MI to MO is expected to largely decay this morning. Some guidance suggests reinvigoration may occur in the late morning across northern Lower into eastern Upper MI as the lead shortwave impulse passes. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower MI towards the Wabash/Lower OH Valleys. Ample buoyancy will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through much of the kinematic profile will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after dusk in parts of OH/KY. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front pushing east across northern/eastern WI and upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...OK/TX/NM/CO... Multiple areas of ongoing thunderstorms from southern NE to the TX Panhandle are expected to persist and shift south-southeastward this morning. Differential diabatic heating in vicinity of remnant MCVs/outflows and orographic forcing for ascent will be the primary drivers of storm development today. Convection across OK/TX will probably persist and gradually intensify in tandem with downstream boundary-layer heating. Within predominately weak deep-layer shear, slow-moving and mainly disorganized updrafts will dominate. Sporadic strong to marginal severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible in a mix of cells/clusters. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain of NM/CO should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern NM. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to the southern Piedmont... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for erratic wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are most probable across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through dusk. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough centered on the MB/ON to Dakotas/MN borders will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects across northwest ON and the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of this feature, a convectively aided shortwave impulse should dampen as it accelerates north-northeast through the central Great Lakes into northeast ON by early afternoon. Belts of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies will be confined to WI/MI. Ongoing convection from Lake MI to MO is expected to largely decay this morning. Some guidance suggests reinvigoration may occur in the late morning across northern Lower into eastern Upper MI as the lead shortwave impulse passes. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower MI towards the Wabash/Lower OH Valleys. Ample buoyancy will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through much of the kinematic profile will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after dusk in parts of OH/KY. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front pushing east across northern/eastern WI and upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...OK/TX/NM/CO... Multiple areas of ongoing thunderstorms from southern NE to the TX Panhandle are expected to persist and shift south-southeastward this morning. Differential diabatic heating in vicinity of remnant MCVs/outflows and orographic forcing for ascent will be the primary drivers of storm development today. Convection across OK/TX will probably persist and gradually intensify in tandem with downstream boundary-layer heating. Within predominately weak deep-layer shear, slow-moving and mainly disorganized updrafts will dominate. Sporadic strong to marginal severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible in a mix of cells/clusters. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain of NM/CO should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern NM. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to the southern Piedmont... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for erratic wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/12/2025 Read more

MD 1652 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Kansas...northeastern Oklahoma...southwest through east central Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120359Z - 120600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorm development has begun to weaken. As this continues, peak wind gusts along the associated gust front are likely to follow suit. DISCUSSION...Notable surface pressure rises (up to 2-4+ mb 2-hourly in 03Z surface observations), associated with strengthening convective cold pools, have supported a period of locally strong to severe northwesterly surface gusts and southeastward propagation of stronger convection, in the presence of otherwise modest southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. However, increasing inhibition for seasonably moist, potentially unstable parcels within the southeasterly low-level updraft inflow has begun to contribute to substantive weakening of convection. As this continues over the next few hours, the risk for localized damaging wind gusts is expected to continue to wane. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37799426 38639284 39479216 40129050 40948943 40678859 39628896 38639118 37469261 36689481 37429627 37799426 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CVS TO 55 NE CVS TO 25 NW AMA TO 35 N BGD. WW 510 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120600Z. ..BENTLEY..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC117-341-375-381-120600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEAF SMITH MOORE POTTER RANDALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 510 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 112310Z - 120600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 510 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Eastern New Mexico The Oklahoma Panhandle The Western Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 610 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Slow-moving supercells should pose an isolated threat for severe hail generally up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter this evening across eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado. With time, a bowing cluster of thunderstorms may develop and pose a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Trinidad CO to 45 miles southeast of Tucumcari NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 505...WW 506...WW 507...WW 508...WW 509... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30020. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ..Thornton.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ..Thornton.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ..Thornton.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ..Thornton.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more