Severe Storms

WW 507 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 111920Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far West-Central Illinois Extreme Northeast Kansas Northern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is forecast to increase from northeast KS across northern MO and into west-central IL this afternoon. Strong to extreme buoyancy is in place across the region, supporting the potential for robust updrafts. Vertical shear is weak, which could limit storm organization, but the intense updrafts and related water loading could result in numerous strong downbursts. A few instances of hail could occur as well, but warm temperatures should preclude a greater hail threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from Leavenworth KS to 35 miles east southeast of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 505...WW 506... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW DEN TO 35 S BFF TO 35 SE AIA. ..THORNTON..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-120340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-153-120340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS NEC029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-135-145-120340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE CHEYENNE DEUEL DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E MMO TO 35 WNW VPZ. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-120340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E MMO TO 35 WNW VPZ. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-120340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E MMO TO 35 WNW VPZ. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-120340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E MMO TO 35 WNW VPZ. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-120340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 508 TORNADO IL WI 112150Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but intense bow will move quickly eastward this evening while posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 65-75 mph. Isolated large hail may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Madison WI to 55 miles south southeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 505...WW 506...WW 507... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SAF TO 35 SE RTN TO 40 E ALS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651 ..THORNTON..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-120340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS NMC009-011-019-021-037-041-047-059-120340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION OKC025-120340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-120240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS NMC007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-120240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION OKC025-120240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FCL TO 40 SSE DGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650 ..THORNTON..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-120240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-153-120240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS NEC007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-123-135-145- 120240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OJC TO 10 NNW IRK. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-149-120240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN PIKE MOC001-007-019-033-037-041-053-089-101-103-107-111-115-121-127- 137-159-163-173-175-195-205-120240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDRAIN BOONE CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HOWARD JOHNSON KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS LINN MACON MARION MONROE PETTIS PIKE RALLS RANDOLPH SALINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MMO TO 30 ESE RFD TO 20 WSW RAC TO 25 NW MKE. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-037-043-063-089-093-097-099-103-111-197-120240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY WILL WIC059-079-101-133-120240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE RACINE WAUKESHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more