Severe Storms

MD 1645 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of southeast Wyoming...western Nebraska and northern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112036Z - 112230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Developing storms will likely pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts into this evening. A WW is possible. DISCUSSION...Initial high-based storms developing/occurring across the higher-terrain of southeastern WY and northern CO are showing signs of intensification. Located within a post-frontal upslope flow regime, inhibition has been slow to diminish this afternoon. However, strong heating and weak ascent form several perturbations in the westerly flow aloft will continue to support gradual storm development/maturation. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will support strong updrafts as storms move off the higher terrain and develop along the front across western NE. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should allow for some organization into supercells and longer-lived clusters. With moderately steep lapse rates in place, hail is expected, along with isolated severe gusts. Initial storm organization may be slowed somewhat by lingering inhibition and relatively weak forcing. Storms remaining close to the terrain should gradually intensify before moving into the lower elevations later this afternoon/early this evening. As convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity, a severe watch may be needed. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39450160 39360215 39130295 39010388 38890475 39210550 39950593 41550639 41700477 41470282 41140177 39450160 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-149-112340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN PIKE KSC091-103-121-209-112340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC001-003-007-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-079- 089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121-127-137-159-163-165-173-175- 177-195-205-211-112340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN CALDWELL Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-149-112340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN PIKE KSC091-103-121-209-112340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC001-003-007-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-079- 089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121-127-137-159-163-165-173-175- 177-195-205-211-112340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN CALDWELL Read more

WW 507 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 111920Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far West-Central Illinois Extreme Northeast Kansas Northern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is forecast to increase from northeast KS across northern MO and into west-central IL this afternoon. Strong to extreme buoyancy is in place across the region, supporting the potential for robust updrafts. Vertical shear is weak, which could limit storm organization, but the intense updrafts and related water loading could result in numerous strong downbursts. A few instances of hail could occur as well, but warm temperatures should preclude a greater hail threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from Leavenworth KS to 35 miles east southeast of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 505...WW 506... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E SDA TO 30 SSE CID TO 10 WSW DBQ. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-187-195-112340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE IAC007-039-045-051-053-057-087-097-101-103-107-111-115-117-123- 135-139-159-163-173-177-179-183-185-112340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CLARKE CLINTON DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA MONROE MUSCATINE RINGGOLD SCOTT TAYLOR VAN BUREN Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E SDA TO 30 SSE CID TO 10 WSW DBQ. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-187-195-112340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE IAC007-039-045-051-053-057-087-097-101-103-107-111-115-117-123- 135-139-159-163-173-177-179-183-185-112340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CLARKE CLINTON DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA MONROE MUSCATINE RINGGOLD SCOTT TAYLOR VAN BUREN Read more

WW 505 TORNADO IA IL MO 111755Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central and Southeast Iowa Far Northwest Illinois Far Northern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in close proximity to a surface low over far southwest IA, and associated warm front that extends eastward across southern IA into far northwest IL. Ample low-level moisture is supporting strong buoyancy, and the potential for robust updrafts. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible within this environment. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Lamoni IA to 30 miles northeast of Moline IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W DBQ TO 20 WSW LNR TO 30 SE VOK. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC061-112340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUBUQUE WIC043-111-112340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W DBQ TO 20 WSW LNR TO 30 SE VOK. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC061-112340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUBUQUE WIC043-111-112340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 506 SEVERE TSTM IA WI 111815Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and Northeast Iowa Far Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to increase over the next several hours from north-central/northeast IA into far southwest WI. Environmental conditions support the potential for some strong to severe storms capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Waterloo IA to 20 miles east southeast of Lonerock WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 505... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0509 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0509 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 509 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 112220Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and Northeast Colorado Far Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska and the Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should spread generally east-southeastward this evening while posing a threat for both large hail and severe/damaging winds. The largest hail may reach up to 1-2 inches in diameter, while peak gusts of 65-75 mph appear possible if a cluster of thunderstorms can form later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Cheyenne WY to 15 miles northeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 505...WW 506...WW 507...WW 508... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1644 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
Mesoscale Discussion 1644 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas...northern Oklahoma and the far eastern Texas Panhandle. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112016Z - 112215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storm development later this afternoon may pose a risk for sporadic damaging gusts and some hail. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization is underway across much of the southern and central Plains ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Afternoon satellite imagery showed strong surface heating was resulting in gradual deepening of cumulus along and ahead of the front from eastern KS to northern OK. As continued heating and weak ascent from a passing upper-level trough overspread the area, a gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening. Focused largely along the front, modest vertical shear will favor a complex mode of multi cell clusters. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE observed from the 18z LMN/AMA soundings will support transient stronger updrafts capable of some hail with these storms. A deep and well-mixed boundary layer with prominent inverted-V structure should also support occasional stronger downdrafts capable of damaging gusts. Observational trends and recent CAM data suggest storm development will occur first along the front across eastern KS before spreading southwest into northern OK and the TX Panhandle. As storm clusters and outflow begin to amalgamate, the risk for damaging gusts will slowly increase into early evening. Given the limited storm organization a WW is not expected. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37019997 37999749 38949637 39179588 38999514 38519471 36849567 35339851 34950006 36400017 37019997 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0508 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0508 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0508 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 508 TORNADO IL WI 112150Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but intense bow will move quickly eastward this evening while posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 65-75 mph. Isolated large hail may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Madison WI to 55 miles south southeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 505...WW 506...WW 507... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-149-112240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN PIKE KSC005-043-091-103-121-209-112240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC001-003-007-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-079- 087-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121-127-137-159-163-165-173- 175-177-195-205-211-112240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN CALDWELL Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SDA TO 10 SSE OXV TO 35 S ALO. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-177-187-195-112240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE IAC007-031-039-045-051-053-057-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111- 113-115-117-123-135-139-159-163-173-177-179-183-185-112240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CEDAR CLARKE CLINTON DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA MONROE MUSCATINE RINGGOLD SCOTT TAYLOR Read more