Severe Storms

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ALO TO 30 SE LSE. ..KERR..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-055-061-112240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE WIC025-043-045-049-065-103-105-111-112240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANE GRANT GREEN IOWA LAFAYETTE RICHLAND ROCK SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW FOD TO 40 S MCW TO 20 ENE MCW. ..DEAN..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC013-015-017-019-023-043-055-061-065-069-075-079-083-127-169- 171-112140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CLAYTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN MARSHALL STORY TAMA WIC023-043-049-065-103-111-112140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA LAFAYETTE RICHLAND SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 1643 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...Northeast KS into northern MO and west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111901Z - 112030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storm development is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening this afternoon near a cold front across extreme northeast KS into northwest MO, and also farther east into the Kansas City area. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across eastern NE/western IA will support scattered storm development with time along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. While deep-layer shear is relatively modest, strong to extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) will support vigorous updrafts, with an initial threat of isolated hail and damaging wind. Southwesterly 25-35 kt flow in the 850-700 mb layer could eventually support development of one or more small clusters or bowing segments, with an increasing threat of damaging wind. Watch issuance is likely this afternoon in order to cover these threats. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39459572 39719574 40089566 40339547 40439500 40089478 40029367 40149179 40139032 39859009 39339010 39149108 38619277 38579341 38359520 38679541 39099561 39459572 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1642 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF MN INTO EASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...Parts of MN into eastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111827Z - 112030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage early this afternoon across west-central MN, in the vicinity of a cold front. Additional building cumulus and initial storm development has recently been noted along/ahead of the front across north-central MN. Additional storm development will be possible along/ahead of the front this afternoon as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across southern SK/MB and ND and approaches the region from the west. The strongest mid/upper-level flow associated with the approaching shortwave will lag behind the front, resulting in relatively weak deep-layer shear along/ahead of the front. This will tend to limit storm organization to some extent, but moderate to locally strong buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will support a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts with the strongest storms this afternoon. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45389362 44229458 43629557 43259706 43349846 43649861 43839831 44459720 45259629 45789599 46269561 47619498 48879501 49259502 49359479 48629224 48319156 46699259 45389362 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-149-112140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN PIKE KSC005-043-091-103-121-209-112140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC001-003-007-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-079- 087-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121-127-137-159-163-165-173- 175-177-195-205-211-112140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN CALDWELL Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-177-187-195-112140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE IAC001-003-007-011-031-039-045-049-051-053-057-087-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-135-139-153-157-159- 163-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-112140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON CEDAR CLARKE CLINTON DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY IOWA JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA LUCAS MADISON Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more