Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western half of the General Thunderstorm area in the Ohio Valley was trimmed, considering large-scale ascent and instability is shifting eastward with the primary shortwave trough. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western half of the General Thunderstorm area in the Ohio Valley was trimmed, considering large-scale ascent and instability is shifting eastward with the primary shortwave trough. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western half of the General Thunderstorm area in the Ohio Valley was trimmed, considering large-scale ascent and instability is shifting eastward with the primary shortwave trough. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western half of the General Thunderstorm area in the Ohio Valley was trimmed, considering large-scale ascent and instability is shifting eastward with the primary shortwave trough. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western half of the General Thunderstorm area in the Ohio Valley was trimmed, considering large-scale ascent and instability is shifting eastward with the primary shortwave trough. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will shift gradually eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a midlevel jet streak moves into the base of the trough. Ascent in the left exit region of the jet streak will promote scattered showers across parts of the Ohio Valley, though buoyancy will remain too shallow to support thunderstorms. As large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough overspreads the Eastern Seaboard late in the period, a surface low will develop northward off the North Carolina coast. However, any thunderstorm potential associated with this feature should remain offshore where buoyancy will be maximized atop the Gulf Stream. Farther west, a midlevel trough will approach the northwestern CONUS, though boundary-layer moisture/instability supportive of thunderstorms will remain offshore. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will shift gradually eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a midlevel jet streak moves into the base of the trough. Ascent in the left exit region of the jet streak will promote scattered showers across parts of the Ohio Valley, though buoyancy will remain too shallow to support thunderstorms. As large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough overspreads the Eastern Seaboard late in the period, a surface low will develop northward off the North Carolina coast. However, any thunderstorm potential associated with this feature should remain offshore where buoyancy will be maximized atop the Gulf Stream. Farther west, a midlevel trough will approach the northwestern CONUS, though boundary-layer moisture/instability supportive of thunderstorms will remain offshore. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will shift gradually eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a midlevel jet streak moves into the base of the trough. Ascent in the left exit region of the jet streak will promote scattered showers across parts of the Ohio Valley, though buoyancy will remain too shallow to support thunderstorms. As large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough overspreads the Eastern Seaboard late in the period, a surface low will develop northward off the North Carolina coast. However, any thunderstorm potential associated with this feature should remain offshore where buoyancy will be maximized atop the Gulf Stream. Farther west, a midlevel trough will approach the northwestern CONUS, though boundary-layer moisture/instability supportive of thunderstorms will remain offshore. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will shift gradually eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a midlevel jet streak moves into the base of the trough. Ascent in the left exit region of the jet streak will promote scattered showers across parts of the Ohio Valley, though buoyancy will remain too shallow to support thunderstorms. As large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough overspreads the Eastern Seaboard late in the period, a surface low will develop northward off the North Carolina coast. However, any thunderstorm potential associated with this feature should remain offshore where buoyancy will be maximized atop the Gulf Stream. Farther west, a midlevel trough will approach the northwestern CONUS, though boundary-layer moisture/instability supportive of thunderstorms will remain offshore. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will shift gradually eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a midlevel jet streak moves into the base of the trough. Ascent in the left exit region of the jet streak will promote scattered showers across parts of the Ohio Valley, though buoyancy will remain too shallow to support thunderstorms. As large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough overspreads the Eastern Seaboard late in the period, a surface low will develop northward off the North Carolina coast. However, any thunderstorm potential associated with this feature should remain offshore where buoyancy will be maximized atop the Gulf Stream. Farther west, a midlevel trough will approach the northwestern CONUS, though boundary-layer moisture/instability supportive of thunderstorms will remain offshore. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will shift gradually eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a midlevel jet streak moves into the base of the trough. Ascent in the left exit region of the jet streak will promote scattered showers across parts of the Ohio Valley, though buoyancy will remain too shallow to support thunderstorms. As large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough overspreads the Eastern Seaboard late in the period, a surface low will develop northward off the North Carolina coast. However, any thunderstorm potential associated with this feature should remain offshore where buoyancy will be maximized atop the Gulf Stream. Farther west, a midlevel trough will approach the northwestern CONUS, though boundary-layer moisture/instability supportive of thunderstorms will remain offshore. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/04/2023 Read more