Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Northwest... The next in a series of shortwave troughs will impinge on the OR/CA border area on Thursday morning, before digging across the Great Basin by Thursday night. Already steep 700-500 mb lapse rates in the wake of a trough passage on D1 will steepen further between 8 to 8.5 C/km as cold 500-mb temperatures from -30 to -35 C become common. This should compensate for gradually decreasing boundary-layer moisture as onshore winds become northwesterly with low 40s surface dew points holding along the coast through the afternoon. Scant surface-based buoyancy is anticipated with multiple rounds of scattered low-topped convection. Similar to D1, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, tending to focus along the OR to far northern CA coast during the morning and afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms may also occur east of the Cascades in the eastern OR/western ID/northern NV vicinity during the afternoon, within the strongly forced ascent region ahead of the shortwave impulse. Due to minimal buoyancy, thunderstorm probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ..Grams.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning potential exists with convection along parts of the northern Pacific Coast. ...Pacific Coast... Upper ridge currently observed over the western US will shift east and break down as a strong short-wave trough ejects inland along the northern Pacific Coast. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across northern CA into the Great Basin by the end of the period. Along and north of this jet, thermal profiles will cool/steepen such that weak buoyancy will evolve in support of convection. Forecast soundings across this region suggest the greatest risk for deep convection, capable of generating lighting, will occur during the latter half of the period. During this time, 500mb temperatures will cool to near -30C over WA/OR, and at least -20C across most of northern CA. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning potential exists with convection along parts of the northern Pacific Coast. ...Pacific Coast... Upper ridge currently observed over the western US will shift east and break down as a strong short-wave trough ejects inland along the northern Pacific Coast. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across northern CA into the Great Basin by the end of the period. Along and north of this jet, thermal profiles will cool/steepen such that weak buoyancy will evolve in support of convection. Forecast soundings across this region suggest the greatest risk for deep convection, capable of generating lighting, will occur during the latter half of the period. During this time, 500mb temperatures will cool to near -30C over WA/OR, and at least -20C across most of northern CA. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning potential exists with convection along parts of the northern Pacific Coast. ...Pacific Coast... Upper ridge currently observed over the western US will shift east and break down as a strong short-wave trough ejects inland along the northern Pacific Coast. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across northern CA into the Great Basin by the end of the period. Along and north of this jet, thermal profiles will cool/steepen such that weak buoyancy will evolve in support of convection. Forecast soundings across this region suggest the greatest risk for deep convection, capable of generating lighting, will occur during the latter half of the period. During this time, 500mb temperatures will cool to near -30C over WA/OR, and at least -20C across most of northern CA. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning potential exists with convection along parts of the northern Pacific Coast. ...Pacific Coast... Upper ridge currently observed over the western US will shift east and break down as a strong short-wave trough ejects inland along the northern Pacific Coast. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across northern CA into the Great Basin by the end of the period. Along and north of this jet, thermal profiles will cool/steepen such that weak buoyancy will evolve in support of convection. Forecast soundings across this region suggest the greatest risk for deep convection, capable of generating lighting, will occur during the latter half of the period. During this time, 500mb temperatures will cool to near -30C over WA/OR, and at least -20C across most of northern CA. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning potential exists with convection along parts of the northern Pacific Coast. ...Pacific Coast... Upper ridge currently observed over the western US will shift east and break down as a strong short-wave trough ejects inland along the northern Pacific Coast. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across northern CA into the Great Basin by the end of the period. Along and north of this jet, thermal profiles will cool/steepen such that weak buoyancy will evolve in support of convection. Forecast soundings across this region suggest the greatest risk for deep convection, capable of generating lighting, will occur during the latter half of the period. During this time, 500mb temperatures will cool to near -30C over WA/OR, and at least -20C across most of northern CA. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight. ...01z Update... Exit region of midlevel jet is translating across KY toward the southern middle Atlantic region. Scattered showers are noted north of the jet, and a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the deeper updrafts. However, the threat of lightning should diminish with this activity as nocturnal cooling increases over the next few hours. Thunderstorm potential is less than 10% the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight. ...01z Update... Exit region of midlevel jet is translating across KY toward the southern middle Atlantic region. Scattered showers are noted north of the jet, and a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the deeper updrafts. However, the threat of lightning should diminish with this activity as nocturnal cooling increases over the next few hours. Thunderstorm potential is less than 10% the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight. ...01z Update... Exit region of midlevel jet is translating across KY toward the southern middle Atlantic region. Scattered showers are noted north of the jet, and a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the deeper updrafts. However, the threat of lightning should diminish with this activity as nocturnal cooling increases over the next few hours. Thunderstorm potential is less than 10% the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight. ...01z Update... Exit region of midlevel jet is translating across KY toward the southern middle Atlantic region. Scattered showers are noted north of the jet, and a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the deeper updrafts. However, the threat of lightning should diminish with this activity as nocturnal cooling increases over the next few hours. Thunderstorm potential is less than 10% the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight. ...01z Update... Exit region of midlevel jet is translating across KY toward the southern middle Atlantic region. Scattered showers are noted north of the jet, and a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the deeper updrafts. However, the threat of lightning should diminish with this activity as nocturnal cooling increases over the next few hours. Thunderstorm potential is less than 10% the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 12/06/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 5 22:30:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 5 22:30:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A strong mid-level jet streak will cross northern California on Thursday. This jet streak will carve out a larger trough across the Southern Plains which will eventually take on a negative tilt as it moves into the eastern United States. A strong surface low is expected to develop over the weekend and leave a cool, continental polar airmass in its wake across most of the United States. ...Day 4/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas... Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Friday. A lee cyclone is expected to develop across the Texas Panhandle which will tighten the low-level pressure gradient. In addition, a 50 knot mid-level jet will increase to 90 knots Friday afternoon across southern New Mexico. These strong winds, above a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, will also support some stronger surface winds. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal will also support relative humidity below 15 percent. Only light rainfall has fallen in the region over the past 2 weeks. ERC values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels continue to cure and may support some fire spread and increase in initial attack. Therefore, 40 percent critical probabilities have been added for Day4/Friday. Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day5/Saturday. However, these conditions are expected in the cool, post-frontal airmass and therefore, fire weather concerns are not as large. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A strong mid-level jet streak will cross northern California on Thursday. This jet streak will carve out a larger trough across the Southern Plains which will eventually take on a negative tilt as it moves into the eastern United States. A strong surface low is expected to develop over the weekend and leave a cool, continental polar airmass in its wake across most of the United States. ...Day 4/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas... Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Friday. A lee cyclone is expected to develop across the Texas Panhandle which will tighten the low-level pressure gradient. In addition, a 50 knot mid-level jet will increase to 90 knots Friday afternoon across southern New Mexico. These strong winds, above a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, will also support some stronger surface winds. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal will also support relative humidity below 15 percent. Only light rainfall has fallen in the region over the past 2 weeks. ERC values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels continue to cure and may support some fire spread and increase in initial attack. Therefore, 40 percent critical probabilities have been added for Day4/Friday. Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day5/Saturday. However, these conditions are expected in the cool, post-frontal airmass and therefore, fire weather concerns are not as large. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A strong mid-level jet streak will cross northern California on Thursday. This jet streak will carve out a larger trough across the Southern Plains which will eventually take on a negative tilt as it moves into the eastern United States. A strong surface low is expected to develop over the weekend and leave a cool, continental polar airmass in its wake across most of the United States. ...Day 4/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas... Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Friday. A lee cyclone is expected to develop across the Texas Panhandle which will tighten the low-level pressure gradient. In addition, a 50 knot mid-level jet will increase to 90 knots Friday afternoon across southern New Mexico. These strong winds, above a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, will also support some stronger surface winds. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal will also support relative humidity below 15 percent. Only light rainfall has fallen in the region over the past 2 weeks. ERC values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels continue to cure and may support some fire spread and increase in initial attack. Therefore, 40 percent critical probabilities have been added for Day4/Friday. Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day5/Saturday. However, these conditions are expected in the cool, post-frontal airmass and therefore, fire weather concerns are not as large. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A strong mid-level jet streak will cross northern California on Thursday. This jet streak will carve out a larger trough across the Southern Plains which will eventually take on a negative tilt as it moves into the eastern United States. A strong surface low is expected to develop over the weekend and leave a cool, continental polar airmass in its wake across most of the United States. ...Day 4/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas... Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Friday. A lee cyclone is expected to develop across the Texas Panhandle which will tighten the low-level pressure gradient. In addition, a 50 knot mid-level jet will increase to 90 knots Friday afternoon across southern New Mexico. These strong winds, above a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, will also support some stronger surface winds. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal will also support relative humidity below 15 percent. Only light rainfall has fallen in the region over the past 2 weeks. ERC values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels continue to cure and may support some fire spread and increase in initial attack. Therefore, 40 percent critical probabilities have been added for Day4/Friday. Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day5/Saturday. However, these conditions are expected in the cool, post-frontal airmass and therefore, fire weather concerns are not as large. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A strong mid-level jet streak will cross northern California on Thursday. This jet streak will carve out a larger trough across the Southern Plains which will eventually take on a negative tilt as it moves into the eastern United States. A strong surface low is expected to develop over the weekend and leave a cool, continental polar airmass in its wake across most of the United States. ...Day 4/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas... Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Friday. A lee cyclone is expected to develop across the Texas Panhandle which will tighten the low-level pressure gradient. In addition, a 50 knot mid-level jet will increase to 90 knots Friday afternoon across southern New Mexico. These strong winds, above a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, will also support some stronger surface winds. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal will also support relative humidity below 15 percent. Only light rainfall has fallen in the region over the past 2 weeks. ERC values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels continue to cure and may support some fire spread and increase in initial attack. Therefore, 40 percent critical probabilities have been added for Day4/Friday. Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day5/Saturday. However, these conditions are expected in the cool, post-frontal airmass and therefore, fire weather concerns are not as large. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is likely in far southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, southwest Kansas, and the TX/OK Panhandles tomorrow. This may lead to some locally Elevated fire weather conditions, but seasonably dry fuels will limit a greater fire weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is likely in far southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, southwest Kansas, and the TX/OK Panhandles tomorrow. This may lead to some locally Elevated fire weather conditions, but seasonably dry fuels will limit a greater fire weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more