Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the greatest potential for convective development should be from east Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40 knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail conditional. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the greatest potential for convective development should be from east Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40 knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail conditional. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the greatest potential for convective development should be from east Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40 knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail conditional. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the greatest potential for convective development should be from east Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40 knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail conditional. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of intensifying and digging southeastward today. A surface low will deepen in western Oklahoma during the morning and into the afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, westerly surface winds will intensify from the South Plains into the Trans Pecos. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) and RH of 15-20% will develop in this downslope regime. Given at least marginally dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Behind the upper trough, surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin. Offshore flow will increase across southern California. Winds will be on the increase late tonight into Saturday morning. It is not certain how low RH will fall, but a couple hours of locally elevated fire weather are possible late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of intensifying and digging southeastward today. A surface low will deepen in western Oklahoma during the morning and into the afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, westerly surface winds will intensify from the South Plains into the Trans Pecos. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) and RH of 15-20% will develop in this downslope regime. Given at least marginally dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Behind the upper trough, surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin. Offshore flow will increase across southern California. Winds will be on the increase late tonight into Saturday morning. It is not certain how low RH will fall, but a couple hours of locally elevated fire weather are possible late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of intensifying and digging southeastward today. A surface low will deepen in western Oklahoma during the morning and into the afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, westerly surface winds will intensify from the South Plains into the Trans Pecos. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) and RH of 15-20% will develop in this downslope regime. Given at least marginally dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Behind the upper trough, surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin. Offshore flow will increase across southern California. Winds will be on the increase late tonight into Saturday morning. It is not certain how low RH will fall, but a couple hours of locally elevated fire weather are possible late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of intensifying and digging southeastward today. A surface low will deepen in western Oklahoma during the morning and into the afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, westerly surface winds will intensify from the South Plains into the Trans Pecos. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) and RH of 15-20% will develop in this downslope regime. Given at least marginally dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Behind the upper trough, surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin. Offshore flow will increase across southern California. Winds will be on the increase late tonight into Saturday morning. It is not certain how low RH will fall, but a couple hours of locally elevated fire weather are possible late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of intensifying and digging southeastward today. A surface low will deepen in western Oklahoma during the morning and into the afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, westerly surface winds will intensify from the South Plains into the Trans Pecos. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) and RH of 15-20% will develop in this downslope regime. Given at least marginally dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Behind the upper trough, surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin. Offshore flow will increase across southern California. Winds will be on the increase late tonight into Saturday morning. It is not certain how low RH will fall, but a couple hours of locally elevated fire weather are possible late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough in the central and northern Plains, with zonal flow located over much of the Desert Southwest. In addition, a shortwave trough is located across the Pacific Northwest. As this feature moves further inland tonight, isolated lightning strikes will be possible in western Oregon and western Washington. Isolated thunder is also possible in parts of far northeast Oregon and west-central Idaho. No severe threat is expected, and thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough in the central and northern Plains, with zonal flow located over much of the Desert Southwest. In addition, a shortwave trough is located across the Pacific Northwest. As this feature moves further inland tonight, isolated lightning strikes will be possible in western Oregon and western Washington. Isolated thunder is also possible in parts of far northeast Oregon and west-central Idaho. No severe threat is expected, and thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough in the central and northern Plains, with zonal flow located over much of the Desert Southwest. In addition, a shortwave trough is located across the Pacific Northwest. As this feature moves further inland tonight, isolated lightning strikes will be possible in western Oregon and western Washington. Isolated thunder is also possible in parts of far northeast Oregon and west-central Idaho. No severe threat is expected, and thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 7 22:26:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 7 22:26:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more