Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 8 22:35:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 8 22:35:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TX INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the central/eastern CONUS on Saturday. Within the larger-scale trough, an upper-level cyclone initially over MN will evolve into a shortwave that moves eastward through the day, as a surface low moves quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes region toward Hudson Bay. A trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves from the southern Rockies toward the lower/mid MS Valley. A cold front will move across the southern Plains and eventually into parts of the Southeast, with weak surface wave development possible during the day near the ArkLaTex region. ...East TX into the TN Valley... In advance of the cold front, relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place across parts of TX/LA Saturday morning, and stream northward into parts of the Southeast and TN Valley through the day. Modest diurnal heating will support moderate destabilization from east TX into the ArkLaMiss region (MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range), with more modest buoyancy (MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg) potentially extending as far north as southern KY. Meanwhile, increasing deep-layer flow/shear in advance of the approaching upper trough will support long hodographs and increasingly favorable wind profiles for organized convection across the warm sector. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage Saturday afternoon along and perhaps somewhat ahead of the approaching front, as low-level moistening continues and MLCINH is eroded. Effective shear of 50+ kt will be more than sufficient for supercells, though with deep-layer flow largely parallel to the front, a tendency toward a cluster and/or linear mode is expected with time. Large hail will be possible with any sustained supercells. Also, increasing low-level shear will be sufficient to support a tornado threat with any supercells that can be sustained from late afternoon into the evening, especially if a stronger frontal wave can develop. Otherwise, damaging wind and possibly embedded brief tornadoes may become the primary threat Saturday night as storms move eastward, with a gradual weakening trend expected due to diminishing buoyancy. Severe probabilities were expanded northeastward somewhat with this outlook, due to the potential for a couple longer-lived supercells or organized bowing segments to persist into the evening. Higher probabilities were trimmed across parts of east TX, where capping and weaker large-scale ascent are expected to limit storm coverage. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 Read more