Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period. Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period. Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period. Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period. Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period. Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as intense mid-level southerlies become asymmetrically confined ahead of it. This will induce surface cyclogenesis from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into New England through early Monday. Greater surface low deepening should occur during the latter half of the period. ...Southeast... A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern TN to the western FL Panhandle vicinity along a convergent surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Diurnal diabatic heating ahead of this activity is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance, especially the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggests that low-level warm theta-e advection from the western Atlantic across the Carolinas will probably result in a secondary swath of convective development during the day. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg appears unlikely, especially where 850-mb winds greater than 40 kts are prominent. Even so, transient low-level updraft rotation will probably be occasionally noted in the relatively deeper convective elements in both the frontal and warm conveyor regions. These will be conditionally capable of producing a few brief tornadoes and sporadic damaging winds where scant to meager surface-based instability can develop. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as intense mid-level southerlies become asymmetrically confined ahead of it. This will induce surface cyclogenesis from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into New England through early Monday. Greater surface low deepening should occur during the latter half of the period. ...Southeast... A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern TN to the western FL Panhandle vicinity along a convergent surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Diurnal diabatic heating ahead of this activity is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance, especially the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggests that low-level warm theta-e advection from the western Atlantic across the Carolinas will probably result in a secondary swath of convective development during the day. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg appears unlikely, especially where 850-mb winds greater than 40 kts are prominent. Even so, transient low-level updraft rotation will probably be occasionally noted in the relatively deeper convective elements in both the frontal and warm conveyor regions. These will be conditionally capable of producing a few brief tornadoes and sporadic damaging winds where scant to meager surface-based instability can develop. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as intense mid-level southerlies become asymmetrically confined ahead of it. This will induce surface cyclogenesis from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into New England through early Monday. Greater surface low deepening should occur during the latter half of the period. ...Southeast... A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern TN to the western FL Panhandle vicinity along a convergent surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Diurnal diabatic heating ahead of this activity is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance, especially the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggests that low-level warm theta-e advection from the western Atlantic across the Carolinas will probably result in a secondary swath of convective development during the day. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg appears unlikely, especially where 850-mb winds greater than 40 kts are prominent. Even so, transient low-level updraft rotation will probably be occasionally noted in the relatively deeper convective elements in both the frontal and warm conveyor regions. These will be conditionally capable of producing a few brief tornadoes and sporadic damaging winds where scant to meager surface-based instability can develop. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as intense mid-level southerlies become asymmetrically confined ahead of it. This will induce surface cyclogenesis from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into New England through early Monday. Greater surface low deepening should occur during the latter half of the period. ...Southeast... A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern TN to the western FL Panhandle vicinity along a convergent surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Diurnal diabatic heating ahead of this activity is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance, especially the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggests that low-level warm theta-e advection from the western Atlantic across the Carolinas will probably result in a secondary swath of convective development during the day. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg appears unlikely, especially where 850-mb winds greater than 40 kts are prominent. Even so, transient low-level updraft rotation will probably be occasionally noted in the relatively deeper convective elements in both the frontal and warm conveyor regions. These will be conditionally capable of producing a few brief tornadoes and sporadic damaging winds where scant to meager surface-based instability can develop. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as intense mid-level southerlies become asymmetrically confined ahead of it. This will induce surface cyclogenesis from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into New England through early Monday. Greater surface low deepening should occur during the latter half of the period. ...Southeast... A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern TN to the western FL Panhandle vicinity along a convergent surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Diurnal diabatic heating ahead of this activity is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance, especially the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggests that low-level warm theta-e advection from the western Atlantic across the Carolinas will probably result in a secondary swath of convective development during the day. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg appears unlikely, especially where 850-mb winds greater than 40 kts are prominent. Even so, transient low-level updraft rotation will probably be occasionally noted in the relatively deeper convective elements in both the frontal and warm conveyor regions. These will be conditionally capable of producing a few brief tornadoes and sporadic damaging winds where scant to meager surface-based instability can develop. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A leading cyclogenetic surface low will quickly move from the Lake MI area at 12Z Saturday towards James Bay. As this occurs, the cold front trailing to its south-southwest will initially decelerate over the south-central states, downstream of a basal shortwave impulse. This feature should advance from the NM vicinity to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Sunday. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this latter wave from the Ark-La-Tex to the TN Valley. ...East TX to the TN Valley... While regional/global guidance has converged towards a consensus on the upper-level synoptic pattern, differences emerge in timing/placement of the surface baroclinic zone. In addition, CAM guidance offers quite a bit of spread with the potential convective evolution on Saturday. As a result, primary change has been to expand the northeast extent of severe probabilities within a conditionally favorable, high-shear/low-CAPE environment. From east TX into south AR and west MS, a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will become established as surface temperatures rise into the 70s, amid dew points from the mid to upper 60s. Increasing mid-level height falls will overspread the aforementioned baroclinic zone midday, with convective development along/north of the surface front initially probable near the weak cyclone in the Ark-La-Tex. This should become more widespread to the east and south during the afternoon, although spread in CAM guidance is above average with just how quickly this actually occurs and the southward extent of convective development in east TX/west LA during the afternoon. Despite these differences, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells producing large hail, especially where flow can be semi-orthogonal to the front across east TX and the Sabine Valley. A clustered convective mode should dominate to the east across the Mid-South owing to orientation of convective development near/ahead of the cold front more closely paralleling the deep-layer shear vector. But embedded supercells are expected as well, with low-level hodographs adequately enlarged for a few tornadoes. By late afternoon to early evening, an extensive swath of clusters and line segments should dominate. Some increase in low-level SRH is anticipated during this time frame, focused on central to north portions of MS/AL and northward. This should foster a continued damaging-wind and embedded tornado threat east of the MS Valley even as convection outpaces/overturns the instability plume. Low-probability wind/tornado threats will probably persist overnight but should gradually wane in time. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A leading cyclogenetic surface low will quickly move from the Lake MI area at 12Z Saturday towards James Bay. As this occurs, the cold front trailing to its south-southwest will initially decelerate over the south-central states, downstream of a basal shortwave impulse. This feature should advance from the NM vicinity to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Sunday. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this latter wave from the Ark-La-Tex to the TN Valley. ...East TX to the TN Valley... While regional/global guidance has converged towards a consensus on the upper-level synoptic pattern, differences emerge in timing/placement of the surface baroclinic zone. In addition, CAM guidance offers quite a bit of spread with the potential convective evolution on Saturday. As a result, primary change has been to expand the northeast extent of severe probabilities within a conditionally favorable, high-shear/low-CAPE environment. From east TX into south AR and west MS, a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will become established as surface temperatures rise into the 70s, amid dew points from the mid to upper 60s. Increasing mid-level height falls will overspread the aforementioned baroclinic zone midday, with convective development along/north of the surface front initially probable near the weak cyclone in the Ark-La-Tex. This should become more widespread to the east and south during the afternoon, although spread in CAM guidance is above average with just how quickly this actually occurs and the southward extent of convective development in east TX/west LA during the afternoon. Despite these differences, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells producing large hail, especially where flow can be semi-orthogonal to the front across east TX and the Sabine Valley. A clustered convective mode should dominate to the east across the Mid-South owing to orientation of convective development near/ahead of the cold front more closely paralleling the deep-layer shear vector. But embedded supercells are expected as well, with low-level hodographs adequately enlarged for a few tornadoes. By late afternoon to early evening, an extensive swath of clusters and line segments should dominate. Some increase in low-level SRH is anticipated during this time frame, focused on central to north portions of MS/AL and northward. This should foster a continued damaging-wind and embedded tornado threat east of the MS Valley even as convection outpaces/overturns the instability plume. Low-probability wind/tornado threats will probably persist overnight but should gradually wane in time. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A leading cyclogenetic surface low will quickly move from the Lake MI area at 12Z Saturday towards James Bay. As this occurs, the cold front trailing to its south-southwest will initially decelerate over the south-central states, downstream of a basal shortwave impulse. This feature should advance from the NM vicinity to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Sunday. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this latter wave from the Ark-La-Tex to the TN Valley. ...East TX to the TN Valley... While regional/global guidance has converged towards a consensus on the upper-level synoptic pattern, differences emerge in timing/placement of the surface baroclinic zone. In addition, CAM guidance offers quite a bit of spread with the potential convective evolution on Saturday. As a result, primary change has been to expand the northeast extent of severe probabilities within a conditionally favorable, high-shear/low-CAPE environment. From east TX into south AR and west MS, a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will become established as surface temperatures rise into the 70s, amid dew points from the mid to upper 60s. Increasing mid-level height falls will overspread the aforementioned baroclinic zone midday, with convective development along/north of the surface front initially probable near the weak cyclone in the Ark-La-Tex. This should become more widespread to the east and south during the afternoon, although spread in CAM guidance is above average with just how quickly this actually occurs and the southward extent of convective development in east TX/west LA during the afternoon. Despite these differences, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells producing large hail, especially where flow can be semi-orthogonal to the front across east TX and the Sabine Valley. A clustered convective mode should dominate to the east across the Mid-South owing to orientation of convective development near/ahead of the cold front more closely paralleling the deep-layer shear vector. But embedded supercells are expected as well, with low-level hodographs adequately enlarged for a few tornadoes. By late afternoon to early evening, an extensive swath of clusters and line segments should dominate. Some increase in low-level SRH is anticipated during this time frame, focused on central to north portions of MS/AL and northward. This should foster a continued damaging-wind and embedded tornado threat east of the MS Valley even as convection outpaces/overturns the instability plume. Low-probability wind/tornado threats will probably persist overnight but should gradually wane in time. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A leading cyclogenetic surface low will quickly move from the Lake MI area at 12Z Saturday towards James Bay. As this occurs, the cold front trailing to its south-southwest will initially decelerate over the south-central states, downstream of a basal shortwave impulse. This feature should advance from the NM vicinity to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Sunday. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this latter wave from the Ark-La-Tex to the TN Valley. ...East TX to the TN Valley... While regional/global guidance has converged towards a consensus on the upper-level synoptic pattern, differences emerge in timing/placement of the surface baroclinic zone. In addition, CAM guidance offers quite a bit of spread with the potential convective evolution on Saturday. As a result, primary change has been to expand the northeast extent of severe probabilities within a conditionally favorable, high-shear/low-CAPE environment. From east TX into south AR and west MS, a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will become established as surface temperatures rise into the 70s, amid dew points from the mid to upper 60s. Increasing mid-level height falls will overspread the aforementioned baroclinic zone midday, with convective development along/north of the surface front initially probable near the weak cyclone in the Ark-La-Tex. This should become more widespread to the east and south during the afternoon, although spread in CAM guidance is above average with just how quickly this actually occurs and the southward extent of convective development in east TX/west LA during the afternoon. Despite these differences, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells producing large hail, especially where flow can be semi-orthogonal to the front across east TX and the Sabine Valley. A clustered convective mode should dominate to the east across the Mid-South owing to orientation of convective development near/ahead of the cold front more closely paralleling the deep-layer shear vector. But embedded supercells are expected as well, with low-level hodographs adequately enlarged for a few tornadoes. By late afternoon to early evening, an extensive swath of clusters and line segments should dominate. Some increase in low-level SRH is anticipated during this time frame, focused on central to north portions of MS/AL and northward. This should foster a continued damaging-wind and embedded tornado threat east of the MS Valley even as convection outpaces/overturns the instability plume. Low-probability wind/tornado threats will probably persist overnight but should gradually wane in time. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ..Wendt.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the greatest potential for convective development should be from east Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40 knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail conditional. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more