Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern will prove unfavorable for thunderstorms today across the CONUS. Offshore flow will prevail across most of the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts and any appreciable buoyancy has been shunted well south and east of the United States. Across the western US, warm conveyor will gradually sag south along the west Coast, but the primary upper trough will hold well offshore. Weak instability may be noted within the conveyor, but primarily west of -125 longitude. Even within this corridor, elevated convection should remain too shallow/weak to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern will prove unfavorable for thunderstorms today across the CONUS. Offshore flow will prevail across most of the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts and any appreciable buoyancy has been shunted well south and east of the United States. Across the western US, warm conveyor will gradually sag south along the west Coast, but the primary upper trough will hold well offshore. Weak instability may be noted within the conveyor, but primarily west of -125 longitude. Even within this corridor, elevated convection should remain too shallow/weak to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern will prove unfavorable for thunderstorms today across the CONUS. Offshore flow will prevail across most of the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts and any appreciable buoyancy has been shunted well south and east of the United States. Across the western US, warm conveyor will gradually sag south along the west Coast, but the primary upper trough will hold well offshore. Weak instability may be noted within the conveyor, but primarily west of -125 longitude. Even within this corridor, elevated convection should remain too shallow/weak to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Midlevel speed max is translating quickly off the middle Atlantic Coast early this evening. Large-scale ascent and associated buoyancy have progressed well offshore and thunderstorms are no longer forecast over the southern Appalachians. Upstream across the Pacific Northwest, poor lapse rates within the warm conveyor do not appear favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning within the deepest updrafts. For this reason have lowered thunder probabilities to less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Midlevel speed max is translating quickly off the middle Atlantic Coast early this evening. Large-scale ascent and associated buoyancy have progressed well offshore and thunderstorms are no longer forecast over the southern Appalachians. Upstream across the Pacific Northwest, poor lapse rates within the warm conveyor do not appear favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning within the deepest updrafts. For this reason have lowered thunder probabilities to less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Midlevel speed max is translating quickly off the middle Atlantic Coast early this evening. Large-scale ascent and associated buoyancy have progressed well offshore and thunderstorms are no longer forecast over the southern Appalachians. Upstream across the Pacific Northwest, poor lapse rates within the warm conveyor do not appear favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning within the deepest updrafts. For this reason have lowered thunder probabilities to less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Midlevel speed max is translating quickly off the middle Atlantic Coast early this evening. Large-scale ascent and associated buoyancy have progressed well offshore and thunderstorms are no longer forecast over the southern Appalachians. Upstream across the Pacific Northwest, poor lapse rates within the warm conveyor do not appear favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning within the deepest updrafts. For this reason have lowered thunder probabilities to less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Some increase in fire weather conditions is expected across the southern High Plains late this week and into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwaves traverse the Central Rockies and Southwest. This will lead to several days of lee troughing and strengthening winds and downslope flow in the region. The driest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday as the trough deepens and stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region. Freeze cured fine fuels will likely support some increase in initial attack, but ERC values near seasonal norm should mitigate a greater threat for large fire. Therefore, Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely and therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Some precipitation may fall in this region on Saturday which would limit fuel receptiveness, but where fuels remain dry, especially across Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, dry and breezy conditions will continue to dry fuels which may eventually lead to fire weather concerns in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Some increase in fire weather conditions is expected across the southern High Plains late this week and into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwaves traverse the Central Rockies and Southwest. This will lead to several days of lee troughing and strengthening winds and downslope flow in the region. The driest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday as the trough deepens and stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region. Freeze cured fine fuels will likely support some increase in initial attack, but ERC values near seasonal norm should mitigate a greater threat for large fire. Therefore, Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely and therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Some precipitation may fall in this region on Saturday which would limit fuel receptiveness, but where fuels remain dry, especially across Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, dry and breezy conditions will continue to dry fuels which may eventually lead to fire weather concerns in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Some increase in fire weather conditions is expected across the southern High Plains late this week and into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwaves traverse the Central Rockies and Southwest. This will lead to several days of lee troughing and strengthening winds and downslope flow in the region. The driest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday as the trough deepens and stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region. Freeze cured fine fuels will likely support some increase in initial attack, but ERC values near seasonal norm should mitigate a greater threat for large fire. Therefore, Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely and therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Some precipitation may fall in this region on Saturday which would limit fuel receptiveness, but where fuels remain dry, especially across Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, dry and breezy conditions will continue to dry fuels which may eventually lead to fire weather concerns in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Some increase in fire weather conditions is expected across the southern High Plains late this week and into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwaves traverse the Central Rockies and Southwest. This will lead to several days of lee troughing and strengthening winds and downslope flow in the region. The driest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday as the trough deepens and stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region. Freeze cured fine fuels will likely support some increase in initial attack, but ERC values near seasonal norm should mitigate a greater threat for large fire. Therefore, Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely and therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Some precipitation may fall in this region on Saturday which would limit fuel receptiveness, but where fuels remain dry, especially across Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, dry and breezy conditions will continue to dry fuels which may eventually lead to fire weather concerns in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 4 22:21:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 4 22:21:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will shift east across the Rockies on Tuesday, keeping primarily light winds across much of the central and western CONUS. Light winds and cool temperatures in combination with moist fuels across much of the US will keep fire weather concerns low. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Gradients will peak overnight, weakening through the day Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will shift east across the Rockies on Tuesday, keeping primarily light winds across much of the central and western CONUS. Light winds and cool temperatures in combination with moist fuels across much of the US will keep fire weather concerns low. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Gradients will peak overnight, weakening through the day Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will shift east across the Rockies on Tuesday, keeping primarily light winds across much of the central and western CONUS. Light winds and cool temperatures in combination with moist fuels across much of the US will keep fire weather concerns low. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Gradients will peak overnight, weakening through the day Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will shift east across the Rockies on Tuesday, keeping primarily light winds across much of the central and western CONUS. Light winds and cool temperatures in combination with moist fuels across much of the US will keep fire weather concerns low. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Gradients will peak overnight, weakening through the day Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will shift east across the Rockies on Tuesday, keeping primarily light winds across much of the central and western CONUS. Light winds and cool temperatures in combination with moist fuels across much of the US will keep fire weather concerns low. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Gradients will peak overnight, weakening through the day Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will shift east across the Rockies on Tuesday, keeping primarily light winds across much of the central and western CONUS. Light winds and cool temperatures in combination with moist fuels across much of the US will keep fire weather concerns low. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Gradients will peak overnight, weakening through the day Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western half of the General Thunderstorm area in the Ohio Valley was trimmed, considering large-scale ascent and instability is shifting eastward with the primary shortwave trough. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Weinman/Dean.. 12/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...KY and Vicinity... A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough currently over western KY will track eastward through the day into the central Appalachians. This system resulted in a period of thunderstorm activity several hours ago over MO/IL, and could continue to result in scattered lightning flashes for a few more hours into this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes are possible in a strong onshore flow regime along the coast of northwest WA. Read more