Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is likely in far southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, southwest Kansas, and the TX/OK Panhandles tomorrow. This may lead to some locally Elevated fire weather conditions, but seasonably dry fuels will limit a greater fire weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is likely in far southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, southwest Kansas, and the TX/OK Panhandles tomorrow. This may lead to some locally Elevated fire weather conditions, but seasonably dry fuels will limit a greater fire weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is likely in far southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, southwest Kansas, and the TX/OK Panhandles tomorrow. This may lead to some locally Elevated fire weather conditions, but seasonably dry fuels will limit a greater fire weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is likely in far southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, southwest Kansas, and the TX/OK Panhandles tomorrow. This may lead to some locally Elevated fire weather conditions, but seasonably dry fuels will limit a greater fire weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is likely in far southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, southwest Kansas, and the TX/OK Panhandles tomorrow. This may lead to some locally Elevated fire weather conditions, but seasonably dry fuels will limit a greater fire weather concern. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday morning. ...20Z Update... Latest water vapor imagery implies large-scale ascent in the left exit region of a robust jet streak overspreading portions of central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon, where a shallow cumulus field is evident. While very weak instability could conditionally support an isolated lightning flash with any sustained convective cores in the eastern Kentucky vicinity this afternoon/early evening, the potential still appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude organized lightning activity across the CONUS today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday morning. ...20Z Update... Latest water vapor imagery implies large-scale ascent in the left exit region of a robust jet streak overspreading portions of central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon, where a shallow cumulus field is evident. While very weak instability could conditionally support an isolated lightning flash with any sustained convective cores in the eastern Kentucky vicinity this afternoon/early evening, the potential still appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude organized lightning activity across the CONUS today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday morning. ...20Z Update... Latest water vapor imagery implies large-scale ascent in the left exit region of a robust jet streak overspreading portions of central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon, where a shallow cumulus field is evident. While very weak instability could conditionally support an isolated lightning flash with any sustained convective cores in the eastern Kentucky vicinity this afternoon/early evening, the potential still appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude organized lightning activity across the CONUS today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday morning. ...20Z Update... Latest water vapor imagery implies large-scale ascent in the left exit region of a robust jet streak overspreading portions of central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon, where a shallow cumulus field is evident. While very weak instability could conditionally support an isolated lightning flash with any sustained convective cores in the eastern Kentucky vicinity this afternoon/early evening, the potential still appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude organized lightning activity across the CONUS today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday morning. ...20Z Update... Latest water vapor imagery implies large-scale ascent in the left exit region of a robust jet streak overspreading portions of central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon, where a shallow cumulus field is evident. While very weak instability could conditionally support an isolated lightning flash with any sustained convective cores in the eastern Kentucky vicinity this afternoon/early evening, the potential still appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude organized lightning activity across the CONUS today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday morning. ...20Z Update... Latest water vapor imagery implies large-scale ascent in the left exit region of a robust jet streak overspreading portions of central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon, where a shallow cumulus field is evident. While very weak instability could conditionally support an isolated lightning flash with any sustained convective cores in the eastern Kentucky vicinity this afternoon/early evening, the potential still appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude organized lightning activity across the CONUS today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday morning. ...20Z Update... Latest water vapor imagery implies large-scale ascent in the left exit region of a robust jet streak overspreading portions of central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon, where a shallow cumulus field is evident. While very weak instability could conditionally support an isolated lightning flash with any sustained convective cores in the eastern Kentucky vicinity this afternoon/early evening, the potential still appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude organized lightning activity across the CONUS today. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward from the northeast Pacific into the northwestern CONUS, as an attendant cold front moves ashore over coastal Oregon and northwest California. Cold temperatures aloft/steepening lapse rates atop adequate boundary-layer moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning flashes within a larger swath of precipitation. This activity may persist from the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Shallow/weak buoyancy should generally limit strong/severe storm potential despite a modest increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature along immediate coastal areas late in the period. Elsewhere, cool/stable surface conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward from the northeast Pacific into the northwestern CONUS, as an attendant cold front moves ashore over coastal Oregon and northwest California. Cold temperatures aloft/steepening lapse rates atop adequate boundary-layer moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning flashes within a larger swath of precipitation. This activity may persist from the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Shallow/weak buoyancy should generally limit strong/severe storm potential despite a modest increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature along immediate coastal areas late in the period. Elsewhere, cool/stable surface conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward from the northeast Pacific into the northwestern CONUS, as an attendant cold front moves ashore over coastal Oregon and northwest California. Cold temperatures aloft/steepening lapse rates atop adequate boundary-layer moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning flashes within a larger swath of precipitation. This activity may persist from the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Shallow/weak buoyancy should generally limit strong/severe storm potential despite a modest increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature along immediate coastal areas late in the period. Elsewhere, cool/stable surface conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward from the northeast Pacific into the northwestern CONUS, as an attendant cold front moves ashore over coastal Oregon and northwest California. Cold temperatures aloft/steepening lapse rates atop adequate boundary-layer moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning flashes within a larger swath of precipitation. This activity may persist from the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Shallow/weak buoyancy should generally limit strong/severe storm potential despite a modest increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature along immediate coastal areas late in the period. Elsewhere, cool/stable surface conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward from the northeast Pacific into the northwestern CONUS, as an attendant cold front moves ashore over coastal Oregon and northwest California. Cold temperatures aloft/steepening lapse rates atop adequate boundary-layer moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning flashes within a larger swath of precipitation. This activity may persist from the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Shallow/weak buoyancy should generally limit strong/severe storm potential despite a modest increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature along immediate coastal areas late in the period. Elsewhere, cool/stable surface conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward from the northeast Pacific into the northwestern CONUS, as an attendant cold front moves ashore over coastal Oregon and northwest California. Cold temperatures aloft/steepening lapse rates atop adequate boundary-layer moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning flashes within a larger swath of precipitation. This activity may persist from the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Shallow/weak buoyancy should generally limit strong/severe storm potential despite a modest increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature along immediate coastal areas late in the period. Elsewhere, cool/stable surface conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain minimal today. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the Divide today. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Plains as it moves southeastward with time. Surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin into the Western Slope. Fire weather concerns throughout the CONUS should remain low given generally unreceptive fuels and light winds. Some stronger offshore winds are likely in southern California. These winds will peak this morning before weakening through the day. Though fuels are not overly receptive and the lowest RH will not phase well with the strongest winds, locally elevated conditions would be possible where pockets of dry fuels exits within the terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain minimal today. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the Divide today. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Plains as it moves southeastward with time. Surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin into the Western Slope. Fire weather concerns throughout the CONUS should remain low given generally unreceptive fuels and light winds. Some stronger offshore winds are likely in southern California. These winds will peak this morning before weakening through the day. Though fuels are not overly receptive and the lowest RH will not phase well with the strongest winds, locally elevated conditions would be possible where pockets of dry fuels exits within the terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more