Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an initially broad and deep cyclone will undergo substantive further weakening later today through late Tuesday night, while migrating northward offshore of the Pacific coast, toward the Vancouver Island/coastal Washington vicinity. Upstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to gradually split to the southeast of the Aleutians, with the more vigorous southern perturbation beginning to dig through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. As this occurs, a weak downstream mid-level high may attempt to form near the northern British Columbia coast, while remnant mid-level troughing in the branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes begins to progress inland of the Pacific coast. Farther east, large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to shift across and east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau, while downstream troughing shifts offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This regime may undergo some further amplification, with perhaps renewed surface cyclogenesis commencing across the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the period. Low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the lead mid-level troughing has stabilized much of the Gulf of Mexico. While models do suggest that modest modification may commence in at least a narrow corridor across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas, it appears that the moistening boundary-layer will remain shallow, and strongly capped by warm eastward advecting lower/mid-tropospheric air. Across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin, ongoing low/mid-level moistening, coupled with continuing cooling aloft through the day Tuesday, may contribute to sufficient destabilization with daytime heating to support widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning. However, latest model output generally suggests that the higher probabilities for thunderstorm development will be focused near the mid-level cold core offshore the southern California/northern Baja coast, before approaching coastal areas late Tuesday night. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an initially broad and deep cyclone will undergo substantive further weakening later today through late Tuesday night, while migrating northward offshore of the Pacific coast, toward the Vancouver Island/coastal Washington vicinity. Upstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to gradually split to the southeast of the Aleutians, with the more vigorous southern perturbation beginning to dig through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. As this occurs, a weak downstream mid-level high may attempt to form near the northern British Columbia coast, while remnant mid-level troughing in the branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes begins to progress inland of the Pacific coast. Farther east, large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to shift across and east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau, while downstream troughing shifts offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This regime may undergo some further amplification, with perhaps renewed surface cyclogenesis commencing across the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the period. Low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the lead mid-level troughing has stabilized much of the Gulf of Mexico. While models do suggest that modest modification may commence in at least a narrow corridor across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas, it appears that the moistening boundary-layer will remain shallow, and strongly capped by warm eastward advecting lower/mid-tropospheric air. Across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin, ongoing low/mid-level moistening, coupled with continuing cooling aloft through the day Tuesday, may contribute to sufficient destabilization with daytime heating to support widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning. However, latest model output generally suggests that the higher probabilities for thunderstorm development will be focused near the mid-level cold core offshore the southern California/northern Baja coast, before approaching coastal areas late Tuesday night. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an initially broad and deep cyclone will undergo substantive further weakening later today through late Tuesday night, while migrating northward offshore of the Pacific coast, toward the Vancouver Island/coastal Washington vicinity. Upstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to gradually split to the southeast of the Aleutians, with the more vigorous southern perturbation beginning to dig through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. As this occurs, a weak downstream mid-level high may attempt to form near the northern British Columbia coast, while remnant mid-level troughing in the branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes begins to progress inland of the Pacific coast. Farther east, large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to shift across and east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau, while downstream troughing shifts offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This regime may undergo some further amplification, with perhaps renewed surface cyclogenesis commencing across the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the period. Low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the lead mid-level troughing has stabilized much of the Gulf of Mexico. While models do suggest that modest modification may commence in at least a narrow corridor across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas, it appears that the moistening boundary-layer will remain shallow, and strongly capped by warm eastward advecting lower/mid-tropospheric air. Across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin, ongoing low/mid-level moistening, coupled with continuing cooling aloft through the day Tuesday, may contribute to sufficient destabilization with daytime heating to support widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning. However, latest model output generally suggests that the higher probabilities for thunderstorm development will be focused near the mid-level cold core offshore the southern California/northern Baja coast, before approaching coastal areas late Tuesday night. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an initially broad and deep cyclone will undergo substantive further weakening later today through late Tuesday night, while migrating northward offshore of the Pacific coast, toward the Vancouver Island/coastal Washington vicinity. Upstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to gradually split to the southeast of the Aleutians, with the more vigorous southern perturbation beginning to dig through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. As this occurs, a weak downstream mid-level high may attempt to form near the northern British Columbia coast, while remnant mid-level troughing in the branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes begins to progress inland of the Pacific coast. Farther east, large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to shift across and east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau, while downstream troughing shifts offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This regime may undergo some further amplification, with perhaps renewed surface cyclogenesis commencing across the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the period. Low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the lead mid-level troughing has stabilized much of the Gulf of Mexico. While models do suggest that modest modification may commence in at least a narrow corridor across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas, it appears that the moistening boundary-layer will remain shallow, and strongly capped by warm eastward advecting lower/mid-tropospheric air. Across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin, ongoing low/mid-level moistening, coupled with continuing cooling aloft through the day Tuesday, may contribute to sufficient destabilization with daytime heating to support widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning. However, latest model output generally suggests that the higher probabilities for thunderstorm development will be focused near the mid-level cold core offshore the southern California/northern Baja coast, before approaching coastal areas late Tuesday night. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an initially broad and deep cyclone will undergo substantive further weakening later today through late Tuesday night, while migrating northward offshore of the Pacific coast, toward the Vancouver Island/coastal Washington vicinity. Upstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to gradually split to the southeast of the Aleutians, with the more vigorous southern perturbation beginning to dig through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. As this occurs, a weak downstream mid-level high may attempt to form near the northern British Columbia coast, while remnant mid-level troughing in the branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes begins to progress inland of the Pacific coast. Farther east, large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to shift across and east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau, while downstream troughing shifts offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This regime may undergo some further amplification, with perhaps renewed surface cyclogenesis commencing across the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the period. Low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the lead mid-level troughing has stabilized much of the Gulf of Mexico. While models do suggest that modest modification may commence in at least a narrow corridor across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas, it appears that the moistening boundary-layer will remain shallow, and strongly capped by warm eastward advecting lower/mid-tropospheric air. Across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin, ongoing low/mid-level moistening, coupled with continuing cooling aloft through the day Tuesday, may contribute to sufficient destabilization with daytime heating to support widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning. However, latest model output generally suggests that the higher probabilities for thunderstorm development will be focused near the mid-level cold core offshore the southern California/northern Baja coast, before approaching coastal areas late Tuesday night. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an initially broad and deep cyclone will undergo substantive further weakening later today through late Tuesday night, while migrating northward offshore of the Pacific coast, toward the Vancouver Island/coastal Washington vicinity. Upstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to gradually split to the southeast of the Aleutians, with the more vigorous southern perturbation beginning to dig through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. As this occurs, a weak downstream mid-level high may attempt to form near the northern British Columbia coast, while remnant mid-level troughing in the branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes begins to progress inland of the Pacific coast. Farther east, large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to shift across and east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau, while downstream troughing shifts offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This regime may undergo some further amplification, with perhaps renewed surface cyclogenesis commencing across the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the period. Low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the lead mid-level troughing has stabilized much of the Gulf of Mexico. While models do suggest that modest modification may commence in at least a narrow corridor across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas, it appears that the moistening boundary-layer will remain shallow, and strongly capped by warm eastward advecting lower/mid-tropospheric air. Across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin, ongoing low/mid-level moistening, coupled with continuing cooling aloft through the day Tuesday, may contribute to sufficient destabilization with daytime heating to support widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning. However, latest model output generally suggests that the higher probabilities for thunderstorm development will be focused near the mid-level cold core offshore the southern California/northern Baja coast, before approaching coastal areas late Tuesday night. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an initially broad and deep cyclone will undergo substantive further weakening later today through late Tuesday night, while migrating northward offshore of the Pacific coast, toward the Vancouver Island/coastal Washington vicinity. Upstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to gradually split to the southeast of the Aleutians, with the more vigorous southern perturbation beginning to dig through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. As this occurs, a weak downstream mid-level high may attempt to form near the northern British Columbia coast, while remnant mid-level troughing in the branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes begins to progress inland of the Pacific coast. Farther east, large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to shift across and east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau, while downstream troughing shifts offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This regime may undergo some further amplification, with perhaps renewed surface cyclogenesis commencing across the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the period. Low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the lead mid-level troughing has stabilized much of the Gulf of Mexico. While models do suggest that modest modification may commence in at least a narrow corridor across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas, it appears that the moistening boundary-layer will remain shallow, and strongly capped by warm eastward advecting lower/mid-tropospheric air. Across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin, ongoing low/mid-level moistening, coupled with continuing cooling aloft through the day Tuesday, may contribute to sufficient destabilization with daytime heating to support widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning. However, latest model output generally suggests that the higher probabilities for thunderstorm development will be focused near the mid-level cold core offshore the southern California/northern Baja coast, before approaching coastal areas late Tuesday night. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more