Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough is forecast near the West Coast while the High Plains will be beneath a downstream ridge. A pair of weak mid-level troughs over the Mid South/Carolinas will evolve into a larger trough and shift east into the western Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers will continue over parts of the West Coast in association with the mid-level trough. Pockets of weak instability will likely develop and may result in isolated thunderstorms over portions of CA. Quiescent weather conditions will occur over much of the central and eastern states. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough is forecast near the West Coast while the High Plains will be beneath a downstream ridge. A pair of weak mid-level troughs over the Mid South/Carolinas will evolve into a larger trough and shift east into the western Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers will continue over parts of the West Coast in association with the mid-level trough. Pockets of weak instability will likely develop and may result in isolated thunderstorms over portions of CA. Quiescent weather conditions will occur over much of the central and eastern states. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough is forecast near the West Coast while the High Plains will be beneath a downstream ridge. A pair of weak mid-level troughs over the Mid South/Carolinas will evolve into a larger trough and shift east into the western Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers will continue over parts of the West Coast in association with the mid-level trough. Pockets of weak instability will likely develop and may result in isolated thunderstorms over portions of CA. Quiescent weather conditions will occur over much of the central and eastern states. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, will be focused across the West Coast into the northern Great Basin. Late evening water-vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level cyclone off the West Coast, which is forecast to move onshore through the day. As this occurs, cold temperatures aloft will promote adequate buoyancy across much of the region for isolated to scattered thunderstorms today and tonight. ...Central to northern California/Sacramento Valley... A broad swath of isentropic ascent ahead of the upper wave is promoting stratiform precipitation over much of CA as of 05 UTC Monday. This band will gradually shift east through mid/late morning with some clearing anticipated by early afternoon. A plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints is noted in 05 UTC surface observations shifting northward from the central/southern CA coast into the Sacramento Valley. While diurnal insolation will likely be muted by mid/high-level cloud cover, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft with the influx of low-level moisture should promote adequate buoyancy for at least shallow convection through the northern half of the Sacramento Valley. Mid and upper-level flow is forecast to strengthen through the day with the approach of the upper trough, leading to elongating hodographs through the CAPE bearing layer. Southeasterly flow through the Valley will promote strong low-level shear with forecast hodographs depicting favorable low-level curvature for ESRH values on the order of 100-200 m2s2. This kinematic environment in the presence of strong, broad ascent should promote discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. While the limited thermodynamic environment will be a modulating factor, rotating supercells appear possible and should pose a threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of brief tornadoes. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, will be focused across the West Coast into the northern Great Basin. Late evening water-vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level cyclone off the West Coast, which is forecast to move onshore through the day. As this occurs, cold temperatures aloft will promote adequate buoyancy across much of the region for isolated to scattered thunderstorms today and tonight. ...Central to northern California/Sacramento Valley... A broad swath of isentropic ascent ahead of the upper wave is promoting stratiform precipitation over much of CA as of 05 UTC Monday. This band will gradually shift east through mid/late morning with some clearing anticipated by early afternoon. A plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints is noted in 05 UTC surface observations shifting northward from the central/southern CA coast into the Sacramento Valley. While diurnal insolation will likely be muted by mid/high-level cloud cover, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft with the influx of low-level moisture should promote adequate buoyancy for at least shallow convection through the northern half of the Sacramento Valley. Mid and upper-level flow is forecast to strengthen through the day with the approach of the upper trough, leading to elongating hodographs through the CAPE bearing layer. Southeasterly flow through the Valley will promote strong low-level shear with forecast hodographs depicting favorable low-level curvature for ESRH values on the order of 100-200 m2s2. This kinematic environment in the presence of strong, broad ascent should promote discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. While the limited thermodynamic environment will be a modulating factor, rotating supercells appear possible and should pose a threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of brief tornadoes. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, will be focused across the West Coast into the northern Great Basin. Late evening water-vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level cyclone off the West Coast, which is forecast to move onshore through the day. As this occurs, cold temperatures aloft will promote adequate buoyancy across much of the region for isolated to scattered thunderstorms today and tonight. ...Central to northern California/Sacramento Valley... A broad swath of isentropic ascent ahead of the upper wave is promoting stratiform precipitation over much of CA as of 05 UTC Monday. This band will gradually shift east through mid/late morning with some clearing anticipated by early afternoon. A plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints is noted in 05 UTC surface observations shifting northward from the central/southern CA coast into the Sacramento Valley. While diurnal insolation will likely be muted by mid/high-level cloud cover, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft with the influx of low-level moisture should promote adequate buoyancy for at least shallow convection through the northern half of the Sacramento Valley. Mid and upper-level flow is forecast to strengthen through the day with the approach of the upper trough, leading to elongating hodographs through the CAPE bearing layer. Southeasterly flow through the Valley will promote strong low-level shear with forecast hodographs depicting favorable low-level curvature for ESRH values on the order of 100-200 m2s2. This kinematic environment in the presence of strong, broad ascent should promote discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. While the limited thermodynamic environment will be a modulating factor, rotating supercells appear possible and should pose a threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of brief tornadoes. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, will be focused across the West Coast into the northern Great Basin. Late evening water-vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level cyclone off the West Coast, which is forecast to move onshore through the day. As this occurs, cold temperatures aloft will promote adequate buoyancy across much of the region for isolated to scattered thunderstorms today and tonight. ...Central to northern California/Sacramento Valley... A broad swath of isentropic ascent ahead of the upper wave is promoting stratiform precipitation over much of CA as of 05 UTC Monday. This band will gradually shift east through mid/late morning with some clearing anticipated by early afternoon. A plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints is noted in 05 UTC surface observations shifting northward from the central/southern CA coast into the Sacramento Valley. While diurnal insolation will likely be muted by mid/high-level cloud cover, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft with the influx of low-level moisture should promote adequate buoyancy for at least shallow convection through the northern half of the Sacramento Valley. Mid and upper-level flow is forecast to strengthen through the day with the approach of the upper trough, leading to elongating hodographs through the CAPE bearing layer. Southeasterly flow through the Valley will promote strong low-level shear with forecast hodographs depicting favorable low-level curvature for ESRH values on the order of 100-200 m2s2. This kinematic environment in the presence of strong, broad ascent should promote discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. While the limited thermodynamic environment will be a modulating factor, rotating supercells appear possible and should pose a threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of brief tornadoes. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, will be focused across the West Coast into the northern Great Basin. Late evening water-vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level cyclone off the West Coast, which is forecast to move onshore through the day. As this occurs, cold temperatures aloft will promote adequate buoyancy across much of the region for isolated to scattered thunderstorms today and tonight. ...Central to northern California/Sacramento Valley... A broad swath of isentropic ascent ahead of the upper wave is promoting stratiform precipitation over much of CA as of 05 UTC Monday. This band will gradually shift east through mid/late morning with some clearing anticipated by early afternoon. A plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints is noted in 05 UTC surface observations shifting northward from the central/southern CA coast into the Sacramento Valley. While diurnal insolation will likely be muted by mid/high-level cloud cover, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft with the influx of low-level moisture should promote adequate buoyancy for at least shallow convection through the northern half of the Sacramento Valley. Mid and upper-level flow is forecast to strengthen through the day with the approach of the upper trough, leading to elongating hodographs through the CAPE bearing layer. Southeasterly flow through the Valley will promote strong low-level shear with forecast hodographs depicting favorable low-level curvature for ESRH values on the order of 100-200 m2s2. This kinematic environment in the presence of strong, broad ascent should promote discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. While the limited thermodynamic environment will be a modulating factor, rotating supercells appear possible and should pose a threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of brief tornadoes. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, will be focused across the West Coast into the northern Great Basin. Late evening water-vapor imagery depicts a broad upper-level cyclone off the West Coast, which is forecast to move onshore through the day. As this occurs, cold temperatures aloft will promote adequate buoyancy across much of the region for isolated to scattered thunderstorms today and tonight. ...Central to northern California/Sacramento Valley... A broad swath of isentropic ascent ahead of the upper wave is promoting stratiform precipitation over much of CA as of 05 UTC Monday. This band will gradually shift east through mid/late morning with some clearing anticipated by early afternoon. A plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints is noted in 05 UTC surface observations shifting northward from the central/southern CA coast into the Sacramento Valley. While diurnal insolation will likely be muted by mid/high-level cloud cover, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft with the influx of low-level moisture should promote adequate buoyancy for at least shallow convection through the northern half of the Sacramento Valley. Mid and upper-level flow is forecast to strengthen through the day with the approach of the upper trough, leading to elongating hodographs through the CAPE bearing layer. Southeasterly flow through the Valley will promote strong low-level shear with forecast hodographs depicting favorable low-level curvature for ESRH values on the order of 100-200 m2s2. This kinematic environment in the presence of strong, broad ascent should promote discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. While the limited thermodynamic environment will be a modulating factor, rotating supercells appear possible and should pose a threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of brief tornadoes. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 Read more

MD 0153 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Areas affected...Northern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 182301Z - 190300Z SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls will be possible in the coming hours as a cold front approaches northern New York. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites and surface observations show a persistent snow band moving east across southeast Ontario. This band is primarily being driven by ascent along a cold front - likely through a shallow layer from the surface to around 700 mb where lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km based on recent RAP mesoanalyses and forecast soundings. The snow band/cold front is expected to continue to push east into upstate NY within the next few hours. The combination of persistent frontal ascent, steep low-level lapse rates, and 25-30 mph wind gusts (which have been observed across southeast Ontario with the passage of the band/front) suggests snow squall conditions will be possible. Snow squall potential will likely be greatest along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario with diminishing confidence in snow squall potential with east/southeastern extent as low-level lapse rates begin to diminish due to the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Moore.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42747618 42677673 42737739 43037864 43187890 43357895 43527872 43507764 43587718 43747689 44307641 44787553 44977489 44977457 44757421 44577407 44287405 43117527 42887565 42747618 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows west-northwesterly flow over much of the continental U.S., with a embedded shortwave trough in the Southeast and another upper-level trough in the Northeast. Further west across California, an upper-level trough over the far eastern Pacific is approaching from the southwest. Ahead of the trough, flow is southwesterly and divergent, with several bands of large-scale ascent approaching the California coast. As these bands of large-scale ascent move inland this evening, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central and northern California. A lack of instability will make a severe threat unlikely. Elsewhere across the continental U.S. thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows west-northwesterly flow over much of the continental U.S., with a embedded shortwave trough in the Southeast and another upper-level trough in the Northeast. Further west across California, an upper-level trough over the far eastern Pacific is approaching from the southwest. Ahead of the trough, flow is southwesterly and divergent, with several bands of large-scale ascent approaching the California coast. As these bands of large-scale ascent move inland this evening, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central and northern California. A lack of instability will make a severe threat unlikely. Elsewhere across the continental U.S. thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows west-northwesterly flow over much of the continental U.S., with a embedded shortwave trough in the Southeast and another upper-level trough in the Northeast. Further west across California, an upper-level trough over the far eastern Pacific is approaching from the southwest. Ahead of the trough, flow is southwesterly and divergent, with several bands of large-scale ascent approaching the California coast. As these bands of large-scale ascent move inland this evening, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central and northern California. A lack of instability will make a severe threat unlikely. Elsewhere across the continental U.S. thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows west-northwesterly flow over much of the continental U.S., with a embedded shortwave trough in the Southeast and another upper-level trough in the Northeast. Further west across California, an upper-level trough over the far eastern Pacific is approaching from the southwest. Ahead of the trough, flow is southwesterly and divergent, with several bands of large-scale ascent approaching the California coast. As these bands of large-scale ascent move inland this evening, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central and northern California. A lack of instability will make a severe threat unlikely. Elsewhere across the continental U.S. thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows west-northwesterly flow over much of the continental U.S., with a embedded shortwave trough in the Southeast and another upper-level trough in the Northeast. Further west across California, an upper-level trough over the far eastern Pacific is approaching from the southwest. Ahead of the trough, flow is southwesterly and divergent, with several bands of large-scale ascent approaching the California coast. As these bands of large-scale ascent move inland this evening, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central and northern California. A lack of instability will make a severe threat unlikely. Elsewhere across the continental U.S. thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/19/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 18 23:04:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0153 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Areas affected...Northern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 182301Z - 190300Z SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls will be possible in the coming hours as a cold front approaches northern New York. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites and surface observations show a persistent snow band moving east across southeast Ontario. This band is primarily being driven by ascent along a cold front - likely through a shallow layer from the surface to around 700 mb where lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km based on recent RAP mesoanalyses and forecast soundings. The snow band/cold front is expected to continue to push east into upstate NY within the next few hours. The combination of persistent frontal ascent, steep low-level lapse rates, and 25-30 mph wind gusts (which have been observed across southeast Ontario with the passage of the band/front) suggests snow squall conditions will be possible. Snow squall potential will likely be greatest along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario with diminishing confidence in snow squall potential with east/southeastern extent as low-level lapse rates begin to diminish due to the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Moore.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42747618 42677673 42737739 43037864 43187890 43357895 43527872 43507764 43587718 43747689 44307641 44787553 44977489 44977457 44757421 44577407 44287405 43117527 42887565 42747618 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 18 22:22:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more