Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will impinge on the CA Coastline tomorrow. A relatively cool and dry airmass will limit thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. However, adequate low-level warm-air and moisture advection beneath cold temperatures aloft will encourage thunderstorm development ahead of the mid-level trough/surface cyclone over central and northern CA into portions of the northern Great Basin tomorrow afternoon and evening. Over portions of the Sacramento Valley in CA, the low-level moisture return beneath cold temperatures aloft, will foster enough buoyancy to support organized thunderstorms with some severe potential given the presence of vertical wind shear. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley in central/northern CA... An initial band of low-level warm-air-advection driven precipitation will give way to partially clearing skies by late morning or early afternoon over central into northern CA. Modest insolation will support surface temperatures rising into the mid 50s across portions of the Sacramento Valley as low-level moisture advection ushers in low 50s F surface dewpoints. 7.5-8 C/km tropospheric lapse rates overspreading the Sacramento Valley area should boost SBCAPE to around 250-500 J/kg by afternoon peak heating, which should be adequate for supporting isolated low-topped storms. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs, with appreciable amounts of low-level curvature, suggesting that supercells may be the dominant mode of convection. The development of at least one robust supercell still seems likely, with a brief tornado being the primary threat, though a damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail will also be possible. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will impinge on the CA Coastline tomorrow. A relatively cool and dry airmass will limit thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. However, adequate low-level warm-air and moisture advection beneath cold temperatures aloft will encourage thunderstorm development ahead of the mid-level trough/surface cyclone over central and northern CA into portions of the northern Great Basin tomorrow afternoon and evening. Over portions of the Sacramento Valley in CA, the low-level moisture return beneath cold temperatures aloft, will foster enough buoyancy to support organized thunderstorms with some severe potential given the presence of vertical wind shear. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley in central/northern CA... An initial band of low-level warm-air-advection driven precipitation will give way to partially clearing skies by late morning or early afternoon over central into northern CA. Modest insolation will support surface temperatures rising into the mid 50s across portions of the Sacramento Valley as low-level moisture advection ushers in low 50s F surface dewpoints. 7.5-8 C/km tropospheric lapse rates overspreading the Sacramento Valley area should boost SBCAPE to around 250-500 J/kg by afternoon peak heating, which should be adequate for supporting isolated low-topped storms. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs, with appreciable amounts of low-level curvature, suggesting that supercells may be the dominant mode of convection. The development of at least one robust supercell still seems likely, with a brief tornado being the primary threat, though a damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail will also be possible. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will impinge on the CA Coastline tomorrow. A relatively cool and dry airmass will limit thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. However, adequate low-level warm-air and moisture advection beneath cold temperatures aloft will encourage thunderstorm development ahead of the mid-level trough/surface cyclone over central and northern CA into portions of the northern Great Basin tomorrow afternoon and evening. Over portions of the Sacramento Valley in CA, the low-level moisture return beneath cold temperatures aloft, will foster enough buoyancy to support organized thunderstorms with some severe potential given the presence of vertical wind shear. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley in central/northern CA... An initial band of low-level warm-air-advection driven precipitation will give way to partially clearing skies by late morning or early afternoon over central into northern CA. Modest insolation will support surface temperatures rising into the mid 50s across portions of the Sacramento Valley as low-level moisture advection ushers in low 50s F surface dewpoints. 7.5-8 C/km tropospheric lapse rates overspreading the Sacramento Valley area should boost SBCAPE to around 250-500 J/kg by afternoon peak heating, which should be adequate for supporting isolated low-topped storms. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs, with appreciable amounts of low-level curvature, suggesting that supercells may be the dominant mode of convection. The development of at least one robust supercell still seems likely, with a brief tornado being the primary threat, though a damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail will also be possible. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will impinge on the CA Coastline tomorrow. A relatively cool and dry airmass will limit thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. However, adequate low-level warm-air and moisture advection beneath cold temperatures aloft will encourage thunderstorm development ahead of the mid-level trough/surface cyclone over central and northern CA into portions of the northern Great Basin tomorrow afternoon and evening. Over portions of the Sacramento Valley in CA, the low-level moisture return beneath cold temperatures aloft, will foster enough buoyancy to support organized thunderstorms with some severe potential given the presence of vertical wind shear. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley in central/northern CA... An initial band of low-level warm-air-advection driven precipitation will give way to partially clearing skies by late morning or early afternoon over central into northern CA. Modest insolation will support surface temperatures rising into the mid 50s across portions of the Sacramento Valley as low-level moisture advection ushers in low 50s F surface dewpoints. 7.5-8 C/km tropospheric lapse rates overspreading the Sacramento Valley area should boost SBCAPE to around 250-500 J/kg by afternoon peak heating, which should be adequate for supporting isolated low-topped storms. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs, with appreciable amounts of low-level curvature, suggesting that supercells may be the dominant mode of convection. The development of at least one robust supercell still seems likely, with a brief tornado being the primary threat, though a damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail will also be possible. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will impinge on the CA Coastline tomorrow. A relatively cool and dry airmass will limit thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. However, adequate low-level warm-air and moisture advection beneath cold temperatures aloft will encourage thunderstorm development ahead of the mid-level trough/surface cyclone over central and northern CA into portions of the northern Great Basin tomorrow afternoon and evening. Over portions of the Sacramento Valley in CA, the low-level moisture return beneath cold temperatures aloft, will foster enough buoyancy to support organized thunderstorms with some severe potential given the presence of vertical wind shear. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley in central/northern CA... An initial band of low-level warm-air-advection driven precipitation will give way to partially clearing skies by late morning or early afternoon over central into northern CA. Modest insolation will support surface temperatures rising into the mid 50s across portions of the Sacramento Valley as low-level moisture advection ushers in low 50s F surface dewpoints. 7.5-8 C/km tropospheric lapse rates overspreading the Sacramento Valley area should boost SBCAPE to around 250-500 J/kg by afternoon peak heating, which should be adequate for supporting isolated low-topped storms. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs, with appreciable amounts of low-level curvature, suggesting that supercells may be the dominant mode of convection. The development of at least one robust supercell still seems likely, with a brief tornado being the primary threat, though a damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail will also be possible. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across much of the country. Localized concerns may develop in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies as a lee trough deepens through the afternoon. Strong westerly downslope winds may gust as high as 30-40 mph across eastern WY where surface pressure falls are expected to be strongest. Relative-humidity reductions into the twenties, to perhaps upper teens, are possible and may support localized elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible southward into CO and NM in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but with more subdued wind speeds. The spatial extent and duration of such conditions remains fairly uncertain away from the terrain into the High Plains based on recent ensemble guidance, and latest fuel guidance continues to suggests fuels are not currently receptive. These concerns preclude the introduction of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across much of the country. Localized concerns may develop in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies as a lee trough deepens through the afternoon. Strong westerly downslope winds may gust as high as 30-40 mph across eastern WY where surface pressure falls are expected to be strongest. Relative-humidity reductions into the twenties, to perhaps upper teens, are possible and may support localized elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible southward into CO and NM in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but with more subdued wind speeds. The spatial extent and duration of such conditions remains fairly uncertain away from the terrain into the High Plains based on recent ensemble guidance, and latest fuel guidance continues to suggests fuels are not currently receptive. These concerns preclude the introduction of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across much of the country. Localized concerns may develop in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies as a lee trough deepens through the afternoon. Strong westerly downslope winds may gust as high as 30-40 mph across eastern WY where surface pressure falls are expected to be strongest. Relative-humidity reductions into the twenties, to perhaps upper teens, are possible and may support localized elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible southward into CO and NM in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but with more subdued wind speeds. The spatial extent and duration of such conditions remains fairly uncertain away from the terrain into the High Plains based on recent ensemble guidance, and latest fuel guidance continues to suggests fuels are not currently receptive. These concerns preclude the introduction of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across much of the country. Localized concerns may develop in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies as a lee trough deepens through the afternoon. Strong westerly downslope winds may gust as high as 30-40 mph across eastern WY where surface pressure falls are expected to be strongest. Relative-humidity reductions into the twenties, to perhaps upper teens, are possible and may support localized elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible southward into CO and NM in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but with more subdued wind speeds. The spatial extent and duration of such conditions remains fairly uncertain away from the terrain into the High Plains based on recent ensemble guidance, and latest fuel guidance continues to suggests fuels are not currently receptive. These concerns preclude the introduction of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across much of the country. Localized concerns may develop in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies as a lee trough deepens through the afternoon. Strong westerly downslope winds may gust as high as 30-40 mph across eastern WY where surface pressure falls are expected to be strongest. Relative-humidity reductions into the twenties, to perhaps upper teens, are possible and may support localized elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible southward into CO and NM in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but with more subdued wind speeds. The spatial extent and duration of such conditions remains fairly uncertain away from the terrain into the High Plains based on recent ensemble guidance, and latest fuel guidance continues to suggests fuels are not currently receptive. These concerns preclude the introduction of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across much of the country. Localized concerns may develop in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies as a lee trough deepens through the afternoon. Strong westerly downslope winds may gust as high as 30-40 mph across eastern WY where surface pressure falls are expected to be strongest. Relative-humidity reductions into the twenties, to perhaps upper teens, are possible and may support localized elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible southward into CO and NM in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but with more subdued wind speeds. The spatial extent and duration of such conditions remains fairly uncertain away from the terrain into the High Plains based on recent ensemble guidance, and latest fuel guidance continues to suggests fuels are not currently receptive. These concerns preclude the introduction of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across much of the country. Localized concerns may develop in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies as a lee trough deepens through the afternoon. Strong westerly downslope winds may gust as high as 30-40 mph across eastern WY where surface pressure falls are expected to be strongest. Relative-humidity reductions into the twenties, to perhaps upper teens, are possible and may support localized elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible southward into CO and NM in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but with more subdued wind speeds. The spatial extent and duration of such conditions remains fairly uncertain away from the terrain into the High Plains based on recent ensemble guidance, and latest fuel guidance continues to suggests fuels are not currently receptive. These concerns preclude the introduction of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0151 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FL KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Areas affected...FL Keys and extreme south FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181518Z - 181715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A tornado and localized damaging wind swath will be possible as a short-line segment spreads across the Keys and extreme south Florida into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A thin and short-line segment is apparent near the Dry Tortugas into the FL Straits, within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. The north portion of this segment has shown storm-scale organization, with broad rotation and comma-head reflectivity structure. This appears to be near/along the quasi-stationary front that is draped between the Keys and the Everglades, east through about Key Largo. 12Z guidance suggest this boundary will attempt to advance north into early afternoon across south portions of mainland Monroe and Miami-Dade counties. It is plausible that the organizational structure of the short-line segment may be maintained east along the baroclinic zone with an embedded tornado and severe wind threat. Background environment does have limiting factors such as very poor mid-level lapse rates (700-500 mb from 4.5 to 5 C/km per 12Z Key West and Miami soundings) and minimal change in wind speeds between 1 to 3 km AGL. This suggests that any severe threat will be quite localized and focused along the surface front. ..Grams/Hart.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 25028199 25508096 25868017 25767997 25387996 24618093 24268232 24908223 25028199 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, will be possible across part of south Florida and the Keys this afternoon. ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, will be possible across part of south Florida and the Keys this afternoon. ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, will be possible across part of south Florida and the Keys this afternoon. ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, will be possible across part of south Florida and the Keys this afternoon. ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, will be possible across part of south Florida and the Keys this afternoon. ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, will be possible across part of south Florida and the Keys this afternoon. ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, will be possible across part of south Florida and the Keys this afternoon. ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/18/2024 Read more