Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0152 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST FL AND THE UPPER KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0152 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Areas affected...Far southeast FL and the Upper Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181835Z - 182000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief weak tornado and localized strong to marginally severe wind gusts will remain possible with a ragged squall line spreading east-northeast across far southeast Florida and the Upper Keys. DISCUSSION...A ragged QLCS with moderate forward speed of 25-30 kts is ongoing from the tip of the Everglades across the Middle Keys into the FL Straits. Based on its current track it should spread across the Upper Keys and the greater Miami metro area during the next couple hours. A diffuse warm front has advanced north as advertised by morning guidance with low 70s surface dew points in place across the southeast peninsula to mid 70s in the Keys. Despite this rich moisture, instability remains quite limited by the poor mid-level lapse rates sampled in the morning RAOBs and more recently by AMDAR data. As such, convection may remain largely sub-severe as it spreads east-northeast. But conditionally, an enlarged low-level hodograph per area TDWRs and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for a brief weak tornado (peak gust estimates around 65-95 mph) and locally strong wind gusts of 45-60 mph. This conditional potential will diminish in the wake of the QLCS passage as low-level winds become veered. ..Grams/Hart.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 24668092 25328084 25748063 25978031 26048013 25807998 24888038 24668092 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado is possible across portions of the Sacramento Valley of central into northern California Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will impinge on the CA Coastline tomorrow. A relatively cool and dry airmass will limit thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS. However, adequate low-level warm-air and moisture advection beneath cold temperatures aloft will encourage thunderstorm development ahead of the mid-level trough/surface cyclone over central and northern CA into portions of the northern Great Basin tomorrow afternoon and evening. Over portions of the Sacramento Valley in CA, the low-level moisture return beneath cold temperatures aloft, will foster enough buoyancy to support organized thunderstorms with some severe potential given the presence of vertical wind shear. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley in central/northern CA... An initial band of low-level warm-air-advection driven precipitation will give way to partially clearing skies by late morning or early afternoon over central into northern CA. Modest insolation will support surface temperatures rising into the mid 50s across portions of the Sacramento Valley as low-level moisture advection ushers in low 50s F surface dewpoints. 7.5-8 C/km tropospheric lapse rates overspreading the Sacramento Valley area should boost SBCAPE to around 250-500 J/kg by afternoon peak heating, which should be adequate for supporting isolated low-topped storms. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs, with appreciable amounts of low-level curvature, suggesting that supercells may be the dominant mode of convection. The development of at least one robust supercell still seems likely, with a brief tornado being the primary threat, though a damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail will also be possible. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 Read more