Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Thursday or Thursday night across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast during the day, as a disturbance weakens while moving from the mid MS Valley into the Upper OH Valley. Meanwhile the larger-scale upper-air pattern will amplify with a ridge over the West and troughing over the East. In the low levels, a cold front will sweep southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Models are consistent in depicting showers and isolated thunderstorms to likely be ongoing from MO into IN/OH on the north rim of a warm-air advection regime. Only weak elevated instability is forecast during the day as low-level moisture will be limited, especially with north and east extent. By late in the day into the overnight, models continue to indicate showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA and the western Carolinas. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Thursday or Thursday night across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast during the day, as a disturbance weakens while moving from the mid MS Valley into the Upper OH Valley. Meanwhile the larger-scale upper-air pattern will amplify with a ridge over the West and troughing over the East. In the low levels, a cold front will sweep southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Models are consistent in depicting showers and isolated thunderstorms to likely be ongoing from MO into IN/OH on the north rim of a warm-air advection regime. Only weak elevated instability is forecast during the day as low-level moisture will be limited, especially with north and east extent. By late in the day into the overnight, models continue to indicate showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA and the western Carolinas. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Thursday or Thursday night across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast during the day, as a disturbance weakens while moving from the mid MS Valley into the Upper OH Valley. Meanwhile the larger-scale upper-air pattern will amplify with a ridge over the West and troughing over the East. In the low levels, a cold front will sweep southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Models are consistent in depicting showers and isolated thunderstorms to likely be ongoing from MO into IN/OH on the north rim of a warm-air advection regime. Only weak elevated instability is forecast during the day as low-level moisture will be limited, especially with north and east extent. By late in the day into the overnight, models continue to indicate showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA and the western Carolinas. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ...Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight as a series of embedded shortwave troughs rotate inland over southwest OR, central CA and southern CA. Forcing for ascent and cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy will support the threat for additional lightning flashes the next few hours from southwest OR into central CA, as well as over parts of the Great Basin. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase late tonight/early Wednesday across southern CA as the basal shortwave trough approaches the coast 06-12z. ..Thompson.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight as a series of embedded shortwave troughs rotate inland over southwest OR, central CA and southern CA. Forcing for ascent and cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy will support the threat for additional lightning flashes the next few hours from southwest OR into central CA, as well as over parts of the Great Basin. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase late tonight/early Wednesday across southern CA as the basal shortwave trough approaches the coast 06-12z. ..Thompson.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight as a series of embedded shortwave troughs rotate inland over southwest OR, central CA and southern CA. Forcing for ascent and cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy will support the threat for additional lightning flashes the next few hours from southwest OR into central CA, as well as over parts of the Great Basin. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase late tonight/early Wednesday across southern CA as the basal shortwave trough approaches the coast 06-12z. ..Thompson.. 02/21/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 20 22:21:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 20 22:21:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Thursday and potentially again D6/Sunday to D7/Monday. Poor recovery is likely overnight D2/Wednesday - D3/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. A 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook to cover potential for increased fire spread potential from the southern Trans-Pecos into portions of south-central Texas. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D4/Friday through D6/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. Late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream and move eastward, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies and potential for lee trough development. This pattern will favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Low confidence in the evolution of the overall pattern precludes the need to include areas at this time. This threat will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Thursday and potentially again D6/Sunday to D7/Monday. Poor recovery is likely overnight D2/Wednesday - D3/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. A 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook to cover potential for increased fire spread potential from the southern Trans-Pecos into portions of south-central Texas. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D4/Friday through D6/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. Late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream and move eastward, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies and potential for lee trough development. This pattern will favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Low confidence in the evolution of the overall pattern precludes the need to include areas at this time. This threat will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Thursday and potentially again D6/Sunday to D7/Monday. Poor recovery is likely overnight D2/Wednesday - D3/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. A 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook to cover potential for increased fire spread potential from the southern Trans-Pecos into portions of south-central Texas. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D4/Friday through D6/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. Late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream and move eastward, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies and potential for lee trough development. This pattern will favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Low confidence in the evolution of the overall pattern precludes the need to include areas at this time. This threat will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Thursday and potentially again D6/Sunday to D7/Monday. Poor recovery is likely overnight D2/Wednesday - D3/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. A 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook to cover potential for increased fire spread potential from the southern Trans-Pecos into portions of south-central Texas. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D4/Friday through D6/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. Late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream and move eastward, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies and potential for lee trough development. This pattern will favor a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Low confidence in the evolution of the overall pattern precludes the need to include areas at this time. This threat will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z CORRECTED FOR LABELS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Minor updates were made to the D2 Fire Weather Elevated and Critical areas with latest information on fuels and guidance on expected meteorological conditions. The Elevated was expanded further west into New Mexico. Though fuels in this region are currently below the 50th percentile, winds are forecast to be sustained around 20-30 gusting 40-50 mph amid relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Drying of fine fuels should support an increase in fire spread potential, given these conditions. The Critical delineation was shifted further south to the border of Mexico to include Big Bend. Ensemble guidance shows high confidence in sustained Critical conditions continuing into these regions amid ERCs around the 50-60th percentile. Latest fuel guidance indicates that ERCs will approach the 60-70th percentile on Thursday, supporting inclusion of the Critical delineation given favorable meteorological conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z CORRECTED FOR LABELS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Minor updates were made to the D2 Fire Weather Elevated and Critical areas with latest information on fuels and guidance on expected meteorological conditions. The Elevated was expanded further west into New Mexico. Though fuels in this region are currently below the 50th percentile, winds are forecast to be sustained around 20-30 gusting 40-50 mph amid relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Drying of fine fuels should support an increase in fire spread potential, given these conditions. The Critical delineation was shifted further south to the border of Mexico to include Big Bend. Ensemble guidance shows high confidence in sustained Critical conditions continuing into these regions amid ERCs around the 50-60th percentile. Latest fuel guidance indicates that ERCs will approach the 60-70th percentile on Thursday, supporting inclusion of the Critical delineation given favorable meteorological conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more