Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly pivot east to the coast during the period. A surface low over the Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast during the day and into the FL Peninsula. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the Carolinas/GA. Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in the low levels ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but with modest lapse rates. Some heating occurs during the afternoon, but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the afternoon. Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains. Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph. After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts north-central Illinois into northwest Indiana, mainly after midnight local time. Small hail will be possible with these storms, though a couple instances of near 1-inch diameter hail may occur. ...Synopsis... Modest low-level moistening continues on southerly flow/warm advection ahead of a developing southern Plains surface low. However, forecast soundings from RAP/NAM/HRRR continue to indicate a dry layer from around 925 mb through 550 mb through much of the remainder of the forecast period. This dry area is also evident in recent water vapor imagery. It is also noted that the more moist/cooler aloft version of the NAM appears to be too moist/cool compared to 00z RAOBs. This dry layer will largely limit MLCAPE. While steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing ascent from an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough are expected overnight, thermodynamics likely will not support strong/sustained updrafts supporting severe hail production. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, severe potential appears very low and probabilities have been removed from the southwest MO vicinity. Further northeast, forecast and 00z observed RAOBS indicated better midlevel moisture coincident with modest elevated instability and at least weak vertical shear. Elevated thunderstorm development driven by increasing ascent and persistent warm advection are expected after 06z. Isolated small hail, with a few stones approaching 1-inch in diameter, will be possible with this activity into early Thursday morning from north-central IL into northwest IN. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts north-central Illinois into northwest Indiana, mainly after midnight local time. Small hail will be possible with these storms, though a couple instances of near 1-inch diameter hail may occur. ...Synopsis... Modest low-level moistening continues on southerly flow/warm advection ahead of a developing southern Plains surface low. However, forecast soundings from RAP/NAM/HRRR continue to indicate a dry layer from around 925 mb through 550 mb through much of the remainder of the forecast period. This dry area is also evident in recent water vapor imagery. It is also noted that the more moist/cooler aloft version of the NAM appears to be too moist/cool compared to 00z RAOBs. This dry layer will largely limit MLCAPE. While steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing ascent from an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough are expected overnight, thermodynamics likely will not support strong/sustained updrafts supporting severe hail production. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, severe potential appears very low and probabilities have been removed from the southwest MO vicinity. Further northeast, forecast and 00z observed RAOBS indicated better midlevel moisture coincident with modest elevated instability and at least weak vertical shear. Elevated thunderstorm development driven by increasing ascent and persistent warm advection are expected after 06z. Isolated small hail, with a few stones approaching 1-inch in diameter, will be possible with this activity into early Thursday morning from north-central IL into northwest IN. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts north-central Illinois into northwest Indiana, mainly after midnight local time. Small hail will be possible with these storms, though a couple instances of near 1-inch diameter hail may occur. ...Synopsis... Modest low-level moistening continues on southerly flow/warm advection ahead of a developing southern Plains surface low. However, forecast soundings from RAP/NAM/HRRR continue to indicate a dry layer from around 925 mb through 550 mb through much of the remainder of the forecast period. This dry area is also evident in recent water vapor imagery. It is also noted that the more moist/cooler aloft version of the NAM appears to be too moist/cool compared to 00z RAOBs. This dry layer will largely limit MLCAPE. While steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing ascent from an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough are expected overnight, thermodynamics likely will not support strong/sustained updrafts supporting severe hail production. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, severe potential appears very low and probabilities have been removed from the southwest MO vicinity. Further northeast, forecast and 00z observed RAOBS indicated better midlevel moisture coincident with modest elevated instability and at least weak vertical shear. Elevated thunderstorm development driven by increasing ascent and persistent warm advection are expected after 06z. Isolated small hail, with a few stones approaching 1-inch in diameter, will be possible with this activity into early Thursday morning from north-central IL into northwest IN. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2024 Read more