Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad, large-scale mid-level trough located to the east of the Rockies on Friday morning, will feature a speed max moving through its base over the Southeast. A surface low in the Mid-Atlantic states will move east and offshore into the western Atlantic during the day, as a cold front continues southeast into the Carolina shelf waters by mid afternoon and into the FL Peninsula. South-southwesterly low-level flow will aid in moist advection ahead of the front, but 50s to low 60s deg F dewpoints over the Carolinas into north FL are currently forecast. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms and associated cloud cover during the morning will likely delay/inhibit stronger heating from occurring prior to frontal passage over much of the Carolina Piedmont. The exception may be over the immediate coastal areas of SC/GA and the FL Peninsula where a low chance for diurnal storm development could occur. Given the uncertainty with weak destabilization and the potential for timing/placement errors of possible low-topped convection, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad, large-scale mid-level trough located to the east of the Rockies on Friday morning, will feature a speed max moving through its base over the Southeast. A surface low in the Mid-Atlantic states will move east and offshore into the western Atlantic during the day, as a cold front continues southeast into the Carolina shelf waters by mid afternoon and into the FL Peninsula. South-southwesterly low-level flow will aid in moist advection ahead of the front, but 50s to low 60s deg F dewpoints over the Carolinas into north FL are currently forecast. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms and associated cloud cover during the morning will likely delay/inhibit stronger heating from occurring prior to frontal passage over much of the Carolina Piedmont. The exception may be over the immediate coastal areas of SC/GA and the FL Peninsula where a low chance for diurnal storm development could occur. Given the uncertainty with weak destabilization and the potential for timing/placement errors of possible low-topped convection, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad, large-scale mid-level trough located to the east of the Rockies on Friday morning, will feature a speed max moving through its base over the Southeast. A surface low in the Mid-Atlantic states will move east and offshore into the western Atlantic during the day, as a cold front continues southeast into the Carolina shelf waters by mid afternoon and into the FL Peninsula. South-southwesterly low-level flow will aid in moist advection ahead of the front, but 50s to low 60s deg F dewpoints over the Carolinas into north FL are currently forecast. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms and associated cloud cover during the morning will likely delay/inhibit stronger heating from occurring prior to frontal passage over much of the Carolina Piedmont. The exception may be over the immediate coastal areas of SC/GA and the FL Peninsula where a low chance for diurnal storm development could occur. Given the uncertainty with weak destabilization and the potential for timing/placement errors of possible low-topped convection, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad, large-scale mid-level trough located to the east of the Rockies on Friday morning, will feature a speed max moving through its base over the Southeast. A surface low in the Mid-Atlantic states will move east and offshore into the western Atlantic during the day, as a cold front continues southeast into the Carolina shelf waters by mid afternoon and into the FL Peninsula. South-southwesterly low-level flow will aid in moist advection ahead of the front, but 50s to low 60s deg F dewpoints over the Carolinas into north FL are currently forecast. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms and associated cloud cover during the morning will likely delay/inhibit stronger heating from occurring prior to frontal passage over much of the Carolina Piedmont. The exception may be over the immediate coastal areas of SC/GA and the FL Peninsula where a low chance for diurnal storm development could occur. Given the uncertainty with weak destabilization and the potential for timing/placement errors of possible low-topped convection, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad, large-scale mid-level trough located to the east of the Rockies on Friday morning, will feature a speed max moving through its base over the Southeast. A surface low in the Mid-Atlantic states will move east and offshore into the western Atlantic during the day, as a cold front continues southeast into the Carolina shelf waters by mid afternoon and into the FL Peninsula. South-southwesterly low-level flow will aid in moist advection ahead of the front, but 50s to low 60s deg F dewpoints over the Carolinas into north FL are currently forecast. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms and associated cloud cover during the morning will likely delay/inhibit stronger heating from occurring prior to frontal passage over much of the Carolina Piedmont. The exception may be over the immediate coastal areas of SC/GA and the FL Peninsula where a low chance for diurnal storm development could occur. Given the uncertainty with weak destabilization and the potential for timing/placement errors of possible low-topped convection, will defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later outlooks. Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across the greater Big Bend region of southern TX. A surface cyclone is currently forecast to strengthen tomorrow/Wednesday across the Plains, before weakening as it migrates northeast through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak, dry cold front will push southward across western/central TX, reaching the Rio Grande by Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are anticipated both ahead of and immediately behind the front, with RH values in the teens to low 20s likely. The departure of the surface low to the northeast will result in weaker gradient winds along/behind the front compared to Wednesday, but widespread 15-20 mph winds appear probable across central to southwest TX based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble solutions. As such, elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions are anticipated - primarily along and north of the Rio Grande where fuel ERCs are currently between the 50-75th percentile (with further drying expected today/Wednesday). ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across the greater Big Bend region of southern TX. A surface cyclone is currently forecast to strengthen tomorrow/Wednesday across the Plains, before weakening as it migrates northeast through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak, dry cold front will push southward across western/central TX, reaching the Rio Grande by Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are anticipated both ahead of and immediately behind the front, with RH values in the teens to low 20s likely. The departure of the surface low to the northeast will result in weaker gradient winds along/behind the front compared to Wednesday, but widespread 15-20 mph winds appear probable across central to southwest TX based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble solutions. As such, elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions are anticipated - primarily along and north of the Rio Grande where fuel ERCs are currently between the 50-75th percentile (with further drying expected today/Wednesday). ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across the greater Big Bend region of southern TX. A surface cyclone is currently forecast to strengthen tomorrow/Wednesday across the Plains, before weakening as it migrates northeast through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak, dry cold front will push southward across western/central TX, reaching the Rio Grande by Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are anticipated both ahead of and immediately behind the front, with RH values in the teens to low 20s likely. The departure of the surface low to the northeast will result in weaker gradient winds along/behind the front compared to Wednesday, but widespread 15-20 mph winds appear probable across central to southwest TX based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble solutions. As such, elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions are anticipated - primarily along and north of the Rio Grande where fuel ERCs are currently between the 50-75th percentile (with further drying expected today/Wednesday). ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across the greater Big Bend region of southern TX. A surface cyclone is currently forecast to strengthen tomorrow/Wednesday across the Plains, before weakening as it migrates northeast through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak, dry cold front will push southward across western/central TX, reaching the Rio Grande by Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are anticipated both ahead of and immediately behind the front, with RH values in the teens to low 20s likely. The departure of the surface low to the northeast will result in weaker gradient winds along/behind the front compared to Wednesday, but widespread 15-20 mph winds appear probable across central to southwest TX based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble solutions. As such, elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions are anticipated - primarily along and north of the Rio Grande where fuel ERCs are currently between the 50-75th percentile (with further drying expected today/Wednesday). ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across the greater Big Bend region of southern TX. A surface cyclone is currently forecast to strengthen tomorrow/Wednesday across the Plains, before weakening as it migrates northeast through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak, dry cold front will push southward across western/central TX, reaching the Rio Grande by Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are anticipated both ahead of and immediately behind the front, with RH values in the teens to low 20s likely. The departure of the surface low to the northeast will result in weaker gradient winds along/behind the front compared to Wednesday, but widespread 15-20 mph winds appear probable across central to southwest TX based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble solutions. As such, elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions are anticipated - primarily along and north of the Rio Grande where fuel ERCs are currently between the 50-75th percentile (with further drying expected today/Wednesday). ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across the greater Big Bend region of southern TX. A surface cyclone is currently forecast to strengthen tomorrow/Wednesday across the Plains, before weakening as it migrates northeast through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak, dry cold front will push southward across western/central TX, reaching the Rio Grande by Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are anticipated both ahead of and immediately behind the front, with RH values in the teens to low 20s likely. The departure of the surface low to the northeast will result in weaker gradient winds along/behind the front compared to Wednesday, but widespread 15-20 mph winds appear probable across central to southwest TX based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble solutions. As such, elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions are anticipated - primarily along and north of the Rio Grande where fuel ERCs are currently between the 50-75th percentile (with further drying expected today/Wednesday). ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough off the southern CA coast gradually traversing eastward. This feature is expected to gradually de-amplify through the day, resulting in acceleration of the wave as it approaches the southern Plains. 00 UTC soundings sampled an unseasonably warm and dry air mass across the southern High Plains, with a low-level thermal trough noted in recent analyses extending from southwest TX to southwest KS. This thermal ridge is hindering overnight RH recovery with RH values in the low to mid teens noted in 06 UTC surface observations across east NM and southwest TX. Heading into this afternoon, strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies associated with the approach of the upper wave and attendant jet max will promote continued downslope warming/drying. Scattered high-level cirrus may filter insolation to some degree, but diurnal warming coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and the persistent downslope flow regime will support another day of RH values in the 5-10% range. Although a slight dry bias is noted in recent runs of the RAP/HRRR, the aforementioned observed trends and RH minimums observed yesterday lend credence to this RH forecast. 20-30 mph west/southwesterly gradient winds are expected based on strong consensus between high-res ensemble members, as a surface low deepens over southwest KS and a trailing surface trough/dryline pushes east. The onset of these winds is expected to occur as soon as a shallow nocturnal inversion is mixed out, which appears most likely around 18 UTC. Favorable phasing of the mid-level jet max with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent 40-50 mph gusts by late afternoon. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected by early afternoon across a large swath of the southern High Plains. The primary limiting factor for a more robust fire weather threat continues to be fuel status. Although some fine-fuel drying did occur yesterday/Monday, most fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and parts of southeast CO remain only modestly receptive with ERCs near the 50th percentile. As such, the Critical risk area remains confined to far west TX to southeast NM where fuels are drier and active burning was noted on ongoing fires this afternoon in GOES IR imagery. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough off the southern CA coast gradually traversing eastward. This feature is expected to gradually de-amplify through the day, resulting in acceleration of the wave as it approaches the southern Plains. 00 UTC soundings sampled an unseasonably warm and dry air mass across the southern High Plains, with a low-level thermal trough noted in recent analyses extending from southwest TX to southwest KS. This thermal ridge is hindering overnight RH recovery with RH values in the low to mid teens noted in 06 UTC surface observations across east NM and southwest TX. Heading into this afternoon, strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies associated with the approach of the upper wave and attendant jet max will promote continued downslope warming/drying. Scattered high-level cirrus may filter insolation to some degree, but diurnal warming coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and the persistent downslope flow regime will support another day of RH values in the 5-10% range. Although a slight dry bias is noted in recent runs of the RAP/HRRR, the aforementioned observed trends and RH minimums observed yesterday lend credence to this RH forecast. 20-30 mph west/southwesterly gradient winds are expected based on strong consensus between high-res ensemble members, as a surface low deepens over southwest KS and a trailing surface trough/dryline pushes east. The onset of these winds is expected to occur as soon as a shallow nocturnal inversion is mixed out, which appears most likely around 18 UTC. Favorable phasing of the mid-level jet max with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent 40-50 mph gusts by late afternoon. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected by early afternoon across a large swath of the southern High Plains. The primary limiting factor for a more robust fire weather threat continues to be fuel status. Although some fine-fuel drying did occur yesterday/Monday, most fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and parts of southeast CO remain only modestly receptive with ERCs near the 50th percentile. As such, the Critical risk area remains confined to far west TX to southeast NM where fuels are drier and active burning was noted on ongoing fires this afternoon in GOES IR imagery. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough off the southern CA coast gradually traversing eastward. This feature is expected to gradually de-amplify through the day, resulting in acceleration of the wave as it approaches the southern Plains. 00 UTC soundings sampled an unseasonably warm and dry air mass across the southern High Plains, with a low-level thermal trough noted in recent analyses extending from southwest TX to southwest KS. This thermal ridge is hindering overnight RH recovery with RH values in the low to mid teens noted in 06 UTC surface observations across east NM and southwest TX. Heading into this afternoon, strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies associated with the approach of the upper wave and attendant jet max will promote continued downslope warming/drying. Scattered high-level cirrus may filter insolation to some degree, but diurnal warming coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and the persistent downslope flow regime will support another day of RH values in the 5-10% range. Although a slight dry bias is noted in recent runs of the RAP/HRRR, the aforementioned observed trends and RH minimums observed yesterday lend credence to this RH forecast. 20-30 mph west/southwesterly gradient winds are expected based on strong consensus between high-res ensemble members, as a surface low deepens over southwest KS and a trailing surface trough/dryline pushes east. The onset of these winds is expected to occur as soon as a shallow nocturnal inversion is mixed out, which appears most likely around 18 UTC. Favorable phasing of the mid-level jet max with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent 40-50 mph gusts by late afternoon. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected by early afternoon across a large swath of the southern High Plains. The primary limiting factor for a more robust fire weather threat continues to be fuel status. Although some fine-fuel drying did occur yesterday/Monday, most fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and parts of southeast CO remain only modestly receptive with ERCs near the 50th percentile. As such, the Critical risk area remains confined to far west TX to southeast NM where fuels are drier and active burning was noted on ongoing fires this afternoon in GOES IR imagery. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough off the southern CA coast gradually traversing eastward. This feature is expected to gradually de-amplify through the day, resulting in acceleration of the wave as it approaches the southern Plains. 00 UTC soundings sampled an unseasonably warm and dry air mass across the southern High Plains, with a low-level thermal trough noted in recent analyses extending from southwest TX to southwest KS. This thermal ridge is hindering overnight RH recovery with RH values in the low to mid teens noted in 06 UTC surface observations across east NM and southwest TX. Heading into this afternoon, strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies associated with the approach of the upper wave and attendant jet max will promote continued downslope warming/drying. Scattered high-level cirrus may filter insolation to some degree, but diurnal warming coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and the persistent downslope flow regime will support another day of RH values in the 5-10% range. Although a slight dry bias is noted in recent runs of the RAP/HRRR, the aforementioned observed trends and RH minimums observed yesterday lend credence to this RH forecast. 20-30 mph west/southwesterly gradient winds are expected based on strong consensus between high-res ensemble members, as a surface low deepens over southwest KS and a trailing surface trough/dryline pushes east. The onset of these winds is expected to occur as soon as a shallow nocturnal inversion is mixed out, which appears most likely around 18 UTC. Favorable phasing of the mid-level jet max with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent 40-50 mph gusts by late afternoon. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected by early afternoon across a large swath of the southern High Plains. The primary limiting factor for a more robust fire weather threat continues to be fuel status. Although some fine-fuel drying did occur yesterday/Monday, most fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and parts of southeast CO remain only modestly receptive with ERCs near the 50th percentile. As such, the Critical risk area remains confined to far west TX to southeast NM where fuels are drier and active burning was noted on ongoing fires this afternoon in GOES IR imagery. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough off the southern CA coast gradually traversing eastward. This feature is expected to gradually de-amplify through the day, resulting in acceleration of the wave as it approaches the southern Plains. 00 UTC soundings sampled an unseasonably warm and dry air mass across the southern High Plains, with a low-level thermal trough noted in recent analyses extending from southwest TX to southwest KS. This thermal ridge is hindering overnight RH recovery with RH values in the low to mid teens noted in 06 UTC surface observations across east NM and southwest TX. Heading into this afternoon, strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies associated with the approach of the upper wave and attendant jet max will promote continued downslope warming/drying. Scattered high-level cirrus may filter insolation to some degree, but diurnal warming coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and the persistent downslope flow regime will support another day of RH values in the 5-10% range. Although a slight dry bias is noted in recent runs of the RAP/HRRR, the aforementioned observed trends and RH minimums observed yesterday lend credence to this RH forecast. 20-30 mph west/southwesterly gradient winds are expected based on strong consensus between high-res ensemble members, as a surface low deepens over southwest KS and a trailing surface trough/dryline pushes east. The onset of these winds is expected to occur as soon as a shallow nocturnal inversion is mixed out, which appears most likely around 18 UTC. Favorable phasing of the mid-level jet max with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent 40-50 mph gusts by late afternoon. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected by early afternoon across a large swath of the southern High Plains. The primary limiting factor for a more robust fire weather threat continues to be fuel status. Although some fine-fuel drying did occur yesterday/Monday, most fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and parts of southeast CO remain only modestly receptive with ERCs near the 50th percentile. As such, the Critical risk area remains confined to far west TX to southeast NM where fuels are drier and active burning was noted on ongoing fires this afternoon in GOES IR imagery. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough off the southern CA coast gradually traversing eastward. This feature is expected to gradually de-amplify through the day, resulting in acceleration of the wave as it approaches the southern Plains. 00 UTC soundings sampled an unseasonably warm and dry air mass across the southern High Plains, with a low-level thermal trough noted in recent analyses extending from southwest TX to southwest KS. This thermal ridge is hindering overnight RH recovery with RH values in the low to mid teens noted in 06 UTC surface observations across east NM and southwest TX. Heading into this afternoon, strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies associated with the approach of the upper wave and attendant jet max will promote continued downslope warming/drying. Scattered high-level cirrus may filter insolation to some degree, but diurnal warming coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and the persistent downslope flow regime will support another day of RH values in the 5-10% range. Although a slight dry bias is noted in recent runs of the RAP/HRRR, the aforementioned observed trends and RH minimums observed yesterday lend credence to this RH forecast. 20-30 mph west/southwesterly gradient winds are expected based on strong consensus between high-res ensemble members, as a surface low deepens over southwest KS and a trailing surface trough/dryline pushes east. The onset of these winds is expected to occur as soon as a shallow nocturnal inversion is mixed out, which appears most likely around 18 UTC. Favorable phasing of the mid-level jet max with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent 40-50 mph gusts by late afternoon. Consequently, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected by early afternoon across a large swath of the southern High Plains. The primary limiting factor for a more robust fire weather threat continues to be fuel status. Although some fine-fuel drying did occur yesterday/Monday, most fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and parts of southeast CO remain only modestly receptive with ERCs near the 50th percentile. As such, the Critical risk area remains confined to far west TX to southeast NM where fuels are drier and active burning was noted on ongoing fires this afternoon in GOES IR imagery. ..Moore.. 02/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Thursday or Thursday night across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast during the day, as a disturbance weakens while moving from the mid MS Valley into the Upper OH Valley. Meanwhile the larger-scale upper-air pattern will amplify with a ridge over the West and troughing over the East. In the low levels, a cold front will sweep southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Models are consistent in depicting showers and isolated thunderstorms to likely be ongoing from MO into IN/OH on the north rim of a warm-air advection regime. Only weak elevated instability is forecast during the day as low-level moisture will be limited, especially with north and east extent. By late in the day into the overnight, models continue to indicate showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA and the western Carolinas. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Thursday or Thursday night across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast during the day, as a disturbance weakens while moving from the mid MS Valley into the Upper OH Valley. Meanwhile the larger-scale upper-air pattern will amplify with a ridge over the West and troughing over the East. In the low levels, a cold front will sweep southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Models are consistent in depicting showers and isolated thunderstorms to likely be ongoing from MO into IN/OH on the north rim of a warm-air advection regime. Only weak elevated instability is forecast during the day as low-level moisture will be limited, especially with north and east extent. By late in the day into the overnight, models continue to indicate showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA and the western Carolinas. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Thursday or Thursday night across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast during the day, as a disturbance weakens while moving from the mid MS Valley into the Upper OH Valley. Meanwhile the larger-scale upper-air pattern will amplify with a ridge over the West and troughing over the East. In the low levels, a cold front will sweep southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Models are consistent in depicting showers and isolated thunderstorms to likely be ongoing from MO into IN/OH on the north rim of a warm-air advection regime. Only weak elevated instability is forecast during the day as low-level moisture will be limited, especially with north and east extent. By late in the day into the overnight, models continue to indicate showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA and the western Carolinas. ..Smith.. 02/21/2024 Read more