Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive trough-ridge-trough pattern will characterize mid/upper levels through the period. The eastern synoptic trough will move offshore to the Atlantic overnight, after consolidating from shortwave troughs now over the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley region, eastern NC and the FL Peninsula and vicinity. A low- amplitude synoptic ridge, with broadly anticyclonic bracketing flow, will cross the central CONUS. A well-developed synoptic trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery off the West Coast, with embedded cyclone center about 150 nm west-southwest of OTH. A basal shortwave trough was readily apparent well west of southern CA and Baja, between 27N-35N, approaching 130W. As the cyclone weakens and shifts north- northeastward toward the AST/HQM area by the end of the period, the basal trough should weaken slightly and move eastward to a position just offshore from southern CA and northern Baja. A series of small/low-amplitude shortwaves and vorticity lobes will traverse the southwest flow preceding the northeastern Pacific trough, contributing to cooling aloft and modest low/middle-level moistening over portions of the interior West, as well as atop the marine air mass near the coast. Associated 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE (greatest near the coast) will support episodic thunder potential, mainly over the outlook areas, though very isolated flashes cannot be ruled out over much of the area west of the Rockies. The combined shear/ instability parameter space should be too weak to support severe potential. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive trough-ridge-trough pattern will characterize mid/upper levels through the period. The eastern synoptic trough will move offshore to the Atlantic overnight, after consolidating from shortwave troughs now over the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley region, eastern NC and the FL Peninsula and vicinity. A low- amplitude synoptic ridge, with broadly anticyclonic bracketing flow, will cross the central CONUS. A well-developed synoptic trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery off the West Coast, with embedded cyclone center about 150 nm west-southwest of OTH. A basal shortwave trough was readily apparent well west of southern CA and Baja, between 27N-35N, approaching 130W. As the cyclone weakens and shifts north- northeastward toward the AST/HQM area by the end of the period, the basal trough should weaken slightly and move eastward to a position just offshore from southern CA and northern Baja. A series of small/low-amplitude shortwaves and vorticity lobes will traverse the southwest flow preceding the northeastern Pacific trough, contributing to cooling aloft and modest low/middle-level moistening over portions of the interior West, as well as atop the marine air mass near the coast. Associated 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE (greatest near the coast) will support episodic thunder potential, mainly over the outlook areas, though very isolated flashes cannot be ruled out over much of the area west of the Rockies. The combined shear/ instability parameter space should be too weak to support severe potential. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 02/20/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast range will be characterized by progressive upper flow featuring an eastern U.S. trough and ridge over the West through Saturday (day 5). Low potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast through at least Monday (day 7), before models indicate the possibility for northward moisture return into the southern Great Plains/Arklatex by Tuesday (day 8). There is large model variability by early next week, which will result in substantial uncertainty/predictability concerns. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast range will be characterized by progressive upper flow featuring an eastern U.S. trough and ridge over the West through Saturday (day 5). Low potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast through at least Monday (day 7), before models indicate the possibility for northward moisture return into the southern Great Plains/Arklatex by Tuesday (day 8). There is large model variability by early next week, which will result in substantial uncertainty/predictability concerns. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast range will be characterized by progressive upper flow featuring an eastern U.S. trough and ridge over the West through Saturday (day 5). Low potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast through at least Monday (day 7), before models indicate the possibility for northward moisture return into the southern Great Plains/Arklatex by Tuesday (day 8). There is large model variability by early next week, which will result in substantial uncertainty/predictability concerns. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast range will be characterized by progressive upper flow featuring an eastern U.S. trough and ridge over the West through Saturday (day 5). Low potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast through at least Monday (day 7), before models indicate the possibility for northward moisture return into the southern Great Plains/Arklatex by Tuesday (day 8). There is large model variability by early next week, which will result in substantial uncertainty/predictability concerns. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast range will be characterized by progressive upper flow featuring an eastern U.S. trough and ridge over the West through Saturday (day 5). Low potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast through at least Monday (day 7), before models indicate the possibility for northward moisture return into the southern Great Plains/Arklatex by Tuesday (day 8). There is large model variability by early next week, which will result in substantial uncertainty/predictability concerns. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast range will be characterized by progressive upper flow featuring an eastern U.S. trough and ridge over the West through Saturday (day 5). Low potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast through at least Monday (day 7), before models indicate the possibility for northward moisture return into the southern Great Plains/Arklatex by Tuesday (day 8). There is large model variability by early next week, which will result in substantial uncertainty/predictability concerns. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast range will be characterized by progressive upper flow featuring an eastern U.S. trough and ridge over the West through Saturday (day 5). Low potential for severe thunderstorms is forecast through at least Monday (day 7), before models indicate the possibility for northward moisture return into the southern Great Plains/Arklatex by Tuesday (day 8). There is large model variability by early next week, which will result in substantial uncertainty/predictability concerns. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Thursday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast, while an attendant disturbance over MO weakens as it moves into the Upper OH Valley. Concurrently, a large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS. A surface low over MO will weaken as it develops east into the OH Valley, while a cold front pushes southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a warm-air advection regime over the Ozarks in association with a LLJ centered over the lower MS Valley. This activity will likely spread east into a more weakly unstable airmass, as moisture return north into the Mid South/OH Valley will remain limited (lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 7-8 g/kg). Considerable cloud cover will likely inhibit strong heating and limit destabilization. By late in the day into the overnight, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Thursday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast, while an attendant disturbance over MO weakens as it moves into the Upper OH Valley. Concurrently, a large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS. A surface low over MO will weaken as it develops east into the OH Valley, while a cold front pushes southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a warm-air advection regime over the Ozarks in association with a LLJ centered over the lower MS Valley. This activity will likely spread east into a more weakly unstable airmass, as moisture return north into the Mid South/OH Valley will remain limited (lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 7-8 g/kg). Considerable cloud cover will likely inhibit strong heating and limit destabilization. By late in the day into the overnight, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Thursday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast, while an attendant disturbance over MO weakens as it moves into the Upper OH Valley. Concurrently, a large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS. A surface low over MO will weaken as it develops east into the OH Valley, while a cold front pushes southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a warm-air advection regime over the Ozarks in association with a LLJ centered over the lower MS Valley. This activity will likely spread east into a more weakly unstable airmass, as moisture return north into the Mid South/OH Valley will remain limited (lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 7-8 g/kg). Considerable cloud cover will likely inhibit strong heating and limit destabilization. By late in the day into the overnight, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Thursday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast, while an attendant disturbance over MO weakens as it moves into the Upper OH Valley. Concurrently, a large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS. A surface low over MO will weaken as it develops east into the OH Valley, while a cold front pushes southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a warm-air advection regime over the Ozarks in association with a LLJ centered over the lower MS Valley. This activity will likely spread east into a more weakly unstable airmass, as moisture return north into the Mid South/OH Valley will remain limited (lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 7-8 g/kg). Considerable cloud cover will likely inhibit strong heating and limit destabilization. By late in the day into the overnight, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Thursday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast, while an attendant disturbance over MO weakens as it moves into the Upper OH Valley. Concurrently, a large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS. A surface low over MO will weaken as it develops east into the OH Valley, while a cold front pushes southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a warm-air advection regime over the Ozarks in association with a LLJ centered over the lower MS Valley. This activity will likely spread east into a more weakly unstable airmass, as moisture return north into the Mid South/OH Valley will remain limited (lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 7-8 g/kg). Considerable cloud cover will likely inhibit strong heating and limit destabilization. By late in the day into the overnight, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Thursday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast, while an attendant disturbance over MO weakens as it moves into the Upper OH Valley. Concurrently, a large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS. A surface low over MO will weaken as it develops east into the OH Valley, while a cold front pushes southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a warm-air advection regime over the Ozarks in association with a LLJ centered over the lower MS Valley. This activity will likely spread east into a more weakly unstable airmass, as moisture return north into the Mid South/OH Valley will remain limited (lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 7-8 g/kg). Considerable cloud cover will likely inhibit strong heating and limit destabilization. By late in the day into the overnight, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Thursday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Southeast, while an attendant disturbance over MO weakens as it moves into the Upper OH Valley. Concurrently, a large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS. A surface low over MO will weaken as it develops east into the OH Valley, while a cold front pushes southeast from the Ozark Plateau through much of the lower MS/TN Valleys. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a warm-air advection regime over the Ozarks in association with a LLJ centered over the lower MS Valley. This activity will likely spread east into a more weakly unstable airmass, as moisture return north into the Mid South/OH Valley will remain limited (lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 7-8 g/kg). Considerable cloud cover will likely inhibit strong heating and limit destabilization. By late in the day into the overnight, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward-surging front across TN southeastward into AL/GA. ..Smith.. 02/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48 hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across eastern NM into western TX. Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday. Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable. ..Moore.. 02/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more