Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ..Lyons.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Carolinas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300 mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins to deepen offshore by evening. Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Carolinas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300 mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins to deepen offshore by evening. Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Carolinas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300 mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins to deepen offshore by evening. Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Carolinas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300 mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins to deepen offshore by evening. Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024 Read more

MD 0156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into northwest Mississippi and far southwest Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230012Z - 230215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds this evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 00z, regional radar analysis showed isolated thunderstorms over parts of central and northern AR. Over the past 30-45 min, a few of these storms have shown occasional weak supercell characteristics and deeper reflectively cores. The environment is still relatively limited with only 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 25-30 kt of effective shear. While not overly robust, the environment should remain capable of supporting marginal storm organization for a few hours this evening as storms move southeastward. Mid-level lapse rates around 7 c/km and 25-30 kt of effective shear may allow for marginally severe hail and or strong outflow winds from the strongest storms. The severe threat should gradually wane through the later evening hours as the loss of diurnal heating and nocturnal stabilization work to weaken ongoing storms. Given the limited potential for storm organization, and the isolated nature of the severe threat, a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 35049424 35359424 35889333 35869222 35779123 35759110 35258993 34898958 33918983 33359061 33419208 34379390 35049424 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will continue to overspread parts of the Mid South this evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...Parts of Arkansas into the Mid South... Multiple bands of thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from parts of AR into southeast MO and western KY, in association with a gradually deepening mid/upper-level trough and related cold front. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt will remain supportive of at least weakly organized convection through the evening, supporting a continued risk of isolated hail as storms move southeastward. Some modest clustering and upscale growth will be possible as storms approach western TN and northwest MS, which could pose a threat of localized strong/damaging gusts. See MCD 156 for more information. ..Dean.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will continue to overspread parts of the Mid South this evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...Parts of Arkansas into the Mid South... Multiple bands of thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from parts of AR into southeast MO and western KY, in association with a gradually deepening mid/upper-level trough and related cold front. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt will remain supportive of at least weakly organized convection through the evening, supporting a continued risk of isolated hail as storms move southeastward. Some modest clustering and upscale growth will be possible as storms approach western TN and northwest MS, which could pose a threat of localized strong/damaging gusts. See MCD 156 for more information. ..Dean.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will continue to overspread parts of the Mid South this evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...Parts of Arkansas into the Mid South... Multiple bands of thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from parts of AR into southeast MO and western KY, in association with a gradually deepening mid/upper-level trough and related cold front. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt will remain supportive of at least weakly organized convection through the evening, supporting a continued risk of isolated hail as storms move southeastward. Some modest clustering and upscale growth will be possible as storms approach western TN and northwest MS, which could pose a threat of localized strong/damaging gusts. See MCD 156 for more information. ..Dean.. 02/23/2024 Read more