Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 22 22:46:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 22 22:46:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0155 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Areas affected...southern Missouri into northern Arkansas and far western Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221941Z - 222245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are forecast to gradually form near a cold front as it moves from southern Missouri into northern Arkansas. A few storms may produce marginally severe hail. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a mixture of cloud cover across the area, with distinct areas of heating. Recently, low-topped convection has begun to form along western portions of the area along the front, within a convergence zone. Area VWPs indicate the front is several km deep, which will aid boundary-layer lift and eventual cap breakage. As gradual low-level warming occurs from the southwest, inhibition will eventually be eroded near the front/surface trough. Although moisture is limited with less than 1.00" PWAT and dewpoints in the 50s F, cool temperatures aloft will allow for 500 to perhaps as much as 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but favorable deep-layer shear exists primarily above 500 mb. As such, a few storms this afternoon and into the early evening may produce marginal severe hail, with strong wind potential most likely late as storms produce aggregate outflow and propagate east/southeast toward northern MS. ..Jewell/Kerr.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35739376 36179356 36409259 37009063 37028986 36368942 35798966 35279068 34939214 34959328 35249362 35739376 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Saturday through D4/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Confidence is increasing in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions returning to the High Plains on D5/Monday. Late D4/Sunday into D5/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream, with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern will favor strengthening lee troughing east of the Rockies and a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-30 mph (gusting 40-50 mph). Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels across much of western Texas and eastern New Mexico are nearing average to above average dryness, given recent warm/dry/windy conditions from the last 2-3 days. As such, 70 percent probabilities were added across the regions of highest confidence in drying fuels that will support fire spread from eastern New Mexico south into far western Texas and north into the Texas Panhandles. Late in the period D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and attendant cold front shifting southward. Long range guidance differences in location and speed of this developing low leading to uncertainty in how widespread lower afternoon relative humidity values will be. As such a 40 percent delineation was added, due to the strength of the forecast surface winds where medium confidence was overlap of windy/dry conditions. This threat will need to be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Saturday through D4/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Confidence is increasing in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions returning to the High Plains on D5/Monday. Late D4/Sunday into D5/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream, with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern will favor strengthening lee troughing east of the Rockies and a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-30 mph (gusting 40-50 mph). Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels across much of western Texas and eastern New Mexico are nearing average to above average dryness, given recent warm/dry/windy conditions from the last 2-3 days. As such, 70 percent probabilities were added across the regions of highest confidence in drying fuels that will support fire spread from eastern New Mexico south into far western Texas and north into the Texas Panhandles. Late in the period D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and attendant cold front shifting southward. Long range guidance differences in location and speed of this developing low leading to uncertainty in how widespread lower afternoon relative humidity values will be. As such a 40 percent delineation was added, due to the strength of the forecast surface winds where medium confidence was overlap of windy/dry conditions. This threat will need to be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Saturday through D4/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Confidence is increasing in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions returning to the High Plains on D5/Monday. Late D4/Sunday into D5/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream, with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern will favor strengthening lee troughing east of the Rockies and a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-30 mph (gusting 40-50 mph). Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels across much of western Texas and eastern New Mexico are nearing average to above average dryness, given recent warm/dry/windy conditions from the last 2-3 days. As such, 70 percent probabilities were added across the regions of highest confidence in drying fuels that will support fire spread from eastern New Mexico south into far western Texas and north into the Texas Panhandles. Late in the period D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and attendant cold front shifting southward. Long range guidance differences in location and speed of this developing low leading to uncertainty in how widespread lower afternoon relative humidity values will be. As such a 40 percent delineation was added, due to the strength of the forecast surface winds where medium confidence was overlap of windy/dry conditions. This threat will need to be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Saturday through D4/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Confidence is increasing in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions returning to the High Plains on D5/Monday. Late D4/Sunday into D5/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream, with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern will favor strengthening lee troughing east of the Rockies and a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-30 mph (gusting 40-50 mph). Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels across much of western Texas and eastern New Mexico are nearing average to above average dryness, given recent warm/dry/windy conditions from the last 2-3 days. As such, 70 percent probabilities were added across the regions of highest confidence in drying fuels that will support fire spread from eastern New Mexico south into far western Texas and north into the Texas Panhandles. Late in the period D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and attendant cold front shifting southward. Long range guidance differences in location and speed of this developing low leading to uncertainty in how widespread lower afternoon relative humidity values will be. As such a 40 percent delineation was added, due to the strength of the forecast surface winds where medium confidence was overlap of windy/dry conditions. This threat will need to be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Saturday through D4/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Confidence is increasing in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions returning to the High Plains on D5/Monday. Late D4/Sunday into D5/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream, with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern will favor strengthening lee troughing east of the Rockies and a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-30 mph (gusting 40-50 mph). Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels across much of western Texas and eastern New Mexico are nearing average to above average dryness, given recent warm/dry/windy conditions from the last 2-3 days. As such, 70 percent probabilities were added across the regions of highest confidence in drying fuels that will support fire spread from eastern New Mexico south into far western Texas and north into the Texas Panhandles. Late in the period D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and attendant cold front shifting southward. Long range guidance differences in location and speed of this developing low leading to uncertainty in how widespread lower afternoon relative humidity values will be. As such a 40 percent delineation was added, due to the strength of the forecast surface winds where medium confidence was overlap of windy/dry conditions. This threat will need to be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Saturday through D4/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Confidence is increasing in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions returning to the High Plains on D5/Monday. Late D4/Sunday into D5/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream, with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern will favor strengthening lee troughing east of the Rockies and a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-30 mph (gusting 40-50 mph). Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels across much of western Texas and eastern New Mexico are nearing average to above average dryness, given recent warm/dry/windy conditions from the last 2-3 days. As such, 70 percent probabilities were added across the regions of highest confidence in drying fuels that will support fire spread from eastern New Mexico south into far western Texas and north into the Texas Panhandles. Late in the period D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and attendant cold front shifting southward. Long range guidance differences in location and speed of this developing low leading to uncertainty in how widespread lower afternoon relative humidity values will be. As such a 40 percent delineation was added, due to the strength of the forecast surface winds where medium confidence was overlap of windy/dry conditions. This threat will need to be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and overspread parts of the Mid South late this afternoon/evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...20Z Update... Heating along the surface boundary in southern Missouri has promoted some weak convective development. Confidence in the potential for marginally severe hail has increased within this corridor for expansion of 5% hail probabilities. See MCD #155 for greater mesoscale details in regards to this threat. Much of western Tennessee remains cloudy. Confidence in sufficient destabilization for an appreciable severe threat is low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A couple of short wave perturbations of Arctic origins (currently west of Hudson Bay) are forecast to continue to consolidate into a vigorous digging short wave trough to the southwest through south of Hudson Bay into the James Bay vicinity today through tonight. It still appears that this will contribute to larger-scale mid/upper trough amplification across the northern into mid-latitudes of eastern North America (and accompanied by a significant cold front crossing the Canadian/U.S. border into the northern Great Plains through upper Great Lakes region by late tonight). In phase with this regime, models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes will trend broadly cyclonic across the southern Great Plains through the Southeast, with one or two consolidating embedded lower amplitude perturbations digging from the central Great Plains/Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. While there may be some further deepening of surface troughing shifting from the southern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through Mid Atlantic, models indicate that any embedded cyclogenesis will remain negligible, at least until it shifts offshore Friday through Friday night. In the wake of initially more amplified mid-level troughing now beginning to accelerate away from the Atlantic Seaboard, boundary-layer modification over the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. A limited moisture return is ongoing on moderately strong southerly return flow preceding the surface trough, but substantive further improvement still appears unlikely through this period. ...Mid South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Observed and forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of thunderstorm development, with large-scale ascent, is generally occurring above a stable boundary, and beneath warm/dry capping layers aloft, with profiles supportive of only weak CAPE. It appears that this will remain the case as forcing for ascent begins to support increasing thunderstorm activity ahead of the digging mid-level troughing, southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. However, at least some model output, perhaps most notably the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, suggests that a somewhat better moist (and potentially unstable) inflow to the southwestern flank of this forcing could enhance thunderstorm development this evening across parts of the Mid South into Gulf States. The HRRR depiction of convection includes an organizing cluster with 45+ kt rear inflow developing near or above the 850-800 mb layer. Even if this verifies, the potential efficiency of downward momentum transport to the surface remains unclear based on forecast soundings, but a few locally strong/damaging wind gusts might not be out of the question. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and overspread parts of the Mid South late this afternoon/evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...20Z Update... Heating along the surface boundary in southern Missouri has promoted some weak convective development. Confidence in the potential for marginally severe hail has increased within this corridor for expansion of 5% hail probabilities. See MCD #155 for greater mesoscale details in regards to this threat. Much of western Tennessee remains cloudy. Confidence in sufficient destabilization for an appreciable severe threat is low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A couple of short wave perturbations of Arctic origins (currently west of Hudson Bay) are forecast to continue to consolidate into a vigorous digging short wave trough to the southwest through south of Hudson Bay into the James Bay vicinity today through tonight. It still appears that this will contribute to larger-scale mid/upper trough amplification across the northern into mid-latitudes of eastern North America (and accompanied by a significant cold front crossing the Canadian/U.S. border into the northern Great Plains through upper Great Lakes region by late tonight). In phase with this regime, models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes will trend broadly cyclonic across the southern Great Plains through the Southeast, with one or two consolidating embedded lower amplitude perturbations digging from the central Great Plains/Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. While there may be some further deepening of surface troughing shifting from the southern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through Mid Atlantic, models indicate that any embedded cyclogenesis will remain negligible, at least until it shifts offshore Friday through Friday night. In the wake of initially more amplified mid-level troughing now beginning to accelerate away from the Atlantic Seaboard, boundary-layer modification over the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. A limited moisture return is ongoing on moderately strong southerly return flow preceding the surface trough, but substantive further improvement still appears unlikely through this period. ...Mid South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Observed and forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of thunderstorm development, with large-scale ascent, is generally occurring above a stable boundary, and beneath warm/dry capping layers aloft, with profiles supportive of only weak CAPE. It appears that this will remain the case as forcing for ascent begins to support increasing thunderstorm activity ahead of the digging mid-level troughing, southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. However, at least some model output, perhaps most notably the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, suggests that a somewhat better moist (and potentially unstable) inflow to the southwestern flank of this forcing could enhance thunderstorm development this evening across parts of the Mid South into Gulf States. The HRRR depiction of convection includes an organizing cluster with 45+ kt rear inflow developing near or above the 850-800 mb layer. Even if this verifies, the potential efficiency of downward momentum transport to the surface remains unclear based on forecast soundings, but a few locally strong/damaging wind gusts might not be out of the question. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and overspread parts of the Mid South late this afternoon/evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...20Z Update... Heating along the surface boundary in southern Missouri has promoted some weak convective development. Confidence in the potential for marginally severe hail has increased within this corridor for expansion of 5% hail probabilities. See MCD #155 for greater mesoscale details in regards to this threat. Much of western Tennessee remains cloudy. Confidence in sufficient destabilization for an appreciable severe threat is low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A couple of short wave perturbations of Arctic origins (currently west of Hudson Bay) are forecast to continue to consolidate into a vigorous digging short wave trough to the southwest through south of Hudson Bay into the James Bay vicinity today through tonight. It still appears that this will contribute to larger-scale mid/upper trough amplification across the northern into mid-latitudes of eastern North America (and accompanied by a significant cold front crossing the Canadian/U.S. border into the northern Great Plains through upper Great Lakes region by late tonight). In phase with this regime, models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes will trend broadly cyclonic across the southern Great Plains through the Southeast, with one or two consolidating embedded lower amplitude perturbations digging from the central Great Plains/Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. While there may be some further deepening of surface troughing shifting from the southern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through Mid Atlantic, models indicate that any embedded cyclogenesis will remain negligible, at least until it shifts offshore Friday through Friday night. In the wake of initially more amplified mid-level troughing now beginning to accelerate away from the Atlantic Seaboard, boundary-layer modification over the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. A limited moisture return is ongoing on moderately strong southerly return flow preceding the surface trough, but substantive further improvement still appears unlikely through this period. ...Mid South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Observed and forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of thunderstorm development, with large-scale ascent, is generally occurring above a stable boundary, and beneath warm/dry capping layers aloft, with profiles supportive of only weak CAPE. It appears that this will remain the case as forcing for ascent begins to support increasing thunderstorm activity ahead of the digging mid-level troughing, southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. However, at least some model output, perhaps most notably the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, suggests that a somewhat better moist (and potentially unstable) inflow to the southwestern flank of this forcing could enhance thunderstorm development this evening across parts of the Mid South into Gulf States. The HRRR depiction of convection includes an organizing cluster with 45+ kt rear inflow developing near or above the 850-800 mb layer. Even if this verifies, the potential efficiency of downward momentum transport to the surface remains unclear based on forecast soundings, but a few locally strong/damaging wind gusts might not be out of the question. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and overspread parts of the Mid South late this afternoon/evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...20Z Update... Heating along the surface boundary in southern Missouri has promoted some weak convective development. Confidence in the potential for marginally severe hail has increased within this corridor for expansion of 5% hail probabilities. See MCD #155 for greater mesoscale details in regards to this threat. Much of western Tennessee remains cloudy. Confidence in sufficient destabilization for an appreciable severe threat is low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A couple of short wave perturbations of Arctic origins (currently west of Hudson Bay) are forecast to continue to consolidate into a vigorous digging short wave trough to the southwest through south of Hudson Bay into the James Bay vicinity today through tonight. It still appears that this will contribute to larger-scale mid/upper trough amplification across the northern into mid-latitudes of eastern North America (and accompanied by a significant cold front crossing the Canadian/U.S. border into the northern Great Plains through upper Great Lakes region by late tonight). In phase with this regime, models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes will trend broadly cyclonic across the southern Great Plains through the Southeast, with one or two consolidating embedded lower amplitude perturbations digging from the central Great Plains/Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. While there may be some further deepening of surface troughing shifting from the southern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through Mid Atlantic, models indicate that any embedded cyclogenesis will remain negligible, at least until it shifts offshore Friday through Friday night. In the wake of initially more amplified mid-level troughing now beginning to accelerate away from the Atlantic Seaboard, boundary-layer modification over the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. A limited moisture return is ongoing on moderately strong southerly return flow preceding the surface trough, but substantive further improvement still appears unlikely through this period. ...Mid South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Observed and forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of thunderstorm development, with large-scale ascent, is generally occurring above a stable boundary, and beneath warm/dry capping layers aloft, with profiles supportive of only weak CAPE. It appears that this will remain the case as forcing for ascent begins to support increasing thunderstorm activity ahead of the digging mid-level troughing, southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. However, at least some model output, perhaps most notably the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, suggests that a somewhat better moist (and potentially unstable) inflow to the southwestern flank of this forcing could enhance thunderstorm development this evening across parts of the Mid South into Gulf States. The HRRR depiction of convection includes an organizing cluster with 45+ kt rear inflow developing near or above the 850-800 mb layer. Even if this verifies, the potential efficiency of downward momentum transport to the surface remains unclear based on forecast soundings, but a few locally strong/damaging wind gusts might not be out of the question. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and overspread parts of the Mid South late this afternoon/evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...20Z Update... Heating along the surface boundary in southern Missouri has promoted some weak convective development. Confidence in the potential for marginally severe hail has increased within this corridor for expansion of 5% hail probabilities. See MCD #155 for greater mesoscale details in regards to this threat. Much of western Tennessee remains cloudy. Confidence in sufficient destabilization for an appreciable severe threat is low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A couple of short wave perturbations of Arctic origins (currently west of Hudson Bay) are forecast to continue to consolidate into a vigorous digging short wave trough to the southwest through south of Hudson Bay into the James Bay vicinity today through tonight. It still appears that this will contribute to larger-scale mid/upper trough amplification across the northern into mid-latitudes of eastern North America (and accompanied by a significant cold front crossing the Canadian/U.S. border into the northern Great Plains through upper Great Lakes region by late tonight). In phase with this regime, models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes will trend broadly cyclonic across the southern Great Plains through the Southeast, with one or two consolidating embedded lower amplitude perturbations digging from the central Great Plains/Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. While there may be some further deepening of surface troughing shifting from the southern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through Mid Atlantic, models indicate that any embedded cyclogenesis will remain negligible, at least until it shifts offshore Friday through Friday night. In the wake of initially more amplified mid-level troughing now beginning to accelerate away from the Atlantic Seaboard, boundary-layer modification over the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. A limited moisture return is ongoing on moderately strong southerly return flow preceding the surface trough, but substantive further improvement still appears unlikely through this period. ...Mid South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Observed and forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of thunderstorm development, with large-scale ascent, is generally occurring above a stable boundary, and beneath warm/dry capping layers aloft, with profiles supportive of only weak CAPE. It appears that this will remain the case as forcing for ascent begins to support increasing thunderstorm activity ahead of the digging mid-level troughing, southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. However, at least some model output, perhaps most notably the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, suggests that a somewhat better moist (and potentially unstable) inflow to the southwestern flank of this forcing could enhance thunderstorm development this evening across parts of the Mid South into Gulf States. The HRRR depiction of convection includes an organizing cluster with 45+ kt rear inflow developing near or above the 850-800 mb layer. Even if this verifies, the potential efficiency of downward momentum transport to the surface remains unclear based on forecast soundings, but a few locally strong/damaging wind gusts might not be out of the question. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and overspread parts of the Mid South late this afternoon/evening, and perhaps pose some risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail. ...20Z Update... Heating along the surface boundary in southern Missouri has promoted some weak convective development. Confidence in the potential for marginally severe hail has increased within this corridor for expansion of 5% hail probabilities. See MCD #155 for greater mesoscale details in regards to this threat. Much of western Tennessee remains cloudy. Confidence in sufficient destabilization for an appreciable severe threat is low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A couple of short wave perturbations of Arctic origins (currently west of Hudson Bay) are forecast to continue to consolidate into a vigorous digging short wave trough to the southwest through south of Hudson Bay into the James Bay vicinity today through tonight. It still appears that this will contribute to larger-scale mid/upper trough amplification across the northern into mid-latitudes of eastern North America (and accompanied by a significant cold front crossing the Canadian/U.S. border into the northern Great Plains through upper Great Lakes region by late tonight). In phase with this regime, models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes will trend broadly cyclonic across the southern Great Plains through the Southeast, with one or two consolidating embedded lower amplitude perturbations digging from the central Great Plains/Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. While there may be some further deepening of surface troughing shifting from the southern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through Mid Atlantic, models indicate that any embedded cyclogenesis will remain negligible, at least until it shifts offshore Friday through Friday night. In the wake of initially more amplified mid-level troughing now beginning to accelerate away from the Atlantic Seaboard, boundary-layer modification over the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. A limited moisture return is ongoing on moderately strong southerly return flow preceding the surface trough, but substantive further improvement still appears unlikely through this period. ...Mid South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Observed and forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of thunderstorm development, with large-scale ascent, is generally occurring above a stable boundary, and beneath warm/dry capping layers aloft, with profiles supportive of only weak CAPE. It appears that this will remain the case as forcing for ascent begins to support increasing thunderstorm activity ahead of the digging mid-level troughing, southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. However, at least some model output, perhaps most notably the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, suggests that a somewhat better moist (and potentially unstable) inflow to the southwestern flank of this forcing could enhance thunderstorm development this evening across parts of the Mid South into Gulf States. The HRRR depiction of convection includes an organizing cluster with 45+ kt rear inflow developing near or above the 850-800 mb layer. Even if this verifies, the potential efficiency of downward momentum transport to the surface remains unclear based on forecast soundings, but a few locally strong/damaging wind gusts might not be out of the question. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Friday across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the southern Plains through the day Friday as the surface low currently over northern OK (as of 07 UTC Thursday) migrates into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, lower pressure along a trailing cold front across the Midwest/northern Plains will promote 15-20 mph northwesterly gradient winds across the central Plains. Boundary-layer mixing through at least 2 km will facilitate downward transfer of 25-35 mph winds by mid to late afternoon. An influx of cooler air behind a cold front (currently moving southward across eastern CO/western KS) will limit RH reductions to some degree across NE, but warmer/drier conditions across eastern CO and KS may allow for afternoon RH minimums near 20%. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable from western NE into eastern CO and western KS; however, recent fuel guidance indicates that ERCs across these regions are currently at or below the 50th percentile. This will limit the overall fire weather potential, though fuel trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more